GPRS Forecasts 2002 - 2007 (3rd Annual Industry Edition)

While growth is slowing in terms of ARPU, GPRS and mobile data offers the opportunity of an increase in business ARPU, but how can you guarantee this?

The study, now in its third edition, also found that global data revenue for 2.5G technologies would rise consistently over the next 10 years, continuing even after 3G becomes standard. However, the pace of the growth of 2.5G would be slower than that of 3G technology.

• In 2005 will the only GPRS users be business users?
• How many GPRS customers will there be over the next 5 years?
• Who will be the target markets for GPRS? now and in 5 years time
• What will be the worldwide mobile data revenue in 2010?
• How do you account for the slow adoption of GPRS by subscribers in Western Europe?

• What contracts have been signed and what are the planned timescales for each?
• How will you inform your customers of GPRS prices effectively?
• How are operators pricing their GPRS, is it by volume, time, page counts?

By reading this unique GPRS report (now in its 3rd annual edition) you can ensure the successful implementation and take-up of your GPRS services. Contact us immediately to reserve your copy today.

Who should buy this report today?

• Mobile operators
• providers of GPRS services
• content providers
• application developers
• portals
• MVNOs
• Investment banks and consultants
• Equipment manufacturers
• billing system vendors

Chapter 1 - Introduction


1.1 A New Era for Wireless Telecommunications


1.2 Expectations for the Role of GPRS


1.2.1 None of This Actually Happened


1.3 A New Wave of Cautious Optimism


Graph 1 Mobile Revenue per User (UK, 1995-2001)


Graph 2 Worldwide Mobile Revenue - Voice Only Scenario(2000-2010)


1.4 The Focus of This Report


- Adoption of GPRS


- New applications


- Market segmentation


- The GPRS handset market

Chapter 2 - An Overview of GPRS


2.1 The Significance of Packet-Switching


2.1.1 Sharing Bandwidth


2.1.2 Paying per Packet


2.1.3 IP Compatibility


2.2 Improved Data Speeds


Table 1 Comparision of GPRS, Modem and LAN Communication


Table 2 Typical Performance of GPRS, Modem and LAN


2.2.1 Additional Timeslots


2.2.2 Handset Limitations


2.2.3 The Effect of Coding Schemes on Data Speed


Table 3 Coding Schemes


2.3 Simultaneous Voice Calling and Data Transmission


- Class A


- Class B


- Class C


2.4 The New Infrastructure


Figure 1 GSM/GPRS Network Infrastructure


2.4.1 SGSN - Serving GPRS Support Node


2.4.2 GGSN - Gateway GPRS Support Node


2.4.3 ETSI-Defined Features


2.4.3.1 GTP Tunneling


2.4.3.2 Subscription Control


2.4.3.3 Mobility Management


2.4.3.4 Internet/Intranet Interworking


2.4.3.5 Packet Routing and Transfer Functions


2.4.3.6 Backbone Network Management


2.4.3.7 Charging Data Management


2.4.3.8 Quality of Service


2.4.4 Network Operator Expenditure


2.5 A Host of New Applications


2.6 The Advantages of GPRS


Figure 2 The Advantages of GPRS for the End User


Figure 3 The Advantages of GPRS for the Network Operator

Chapter 3 - GPRS in 2002


3.1 GSM Networks Worldwide


Graph 3 No. of GSM Networks and Countries with GSM (1999-2001)


Graph 4 No. of GSM Networks by World Region (1999-2001)


Graph 5 No. of Subscribers by Technology (1999-2001)


Graph 6 No. of GSM Subscribers by World Region (1997-2001)


Graph 7 Predicted No. of GSM Subscribers by Region (2000-2007)


Graph 8 Estimated/predicted No. of GSM Subscribers (1997-2007)


3.2 Current GPRS Networks


Table 4 GPRS Networks Worldwide: Date of Launch and Network Supplier
-2002


Table 5 Planned GPRS Networks and Planned Suppliers


3.3 Which Firms provide GPRS Infrastructure?


3.4 Available GPRS-enabled Handsets


Table 6 GPRS-enabled Handsets (Jan 2002)


3.5 GPRS Subscribers


Table 7 GPRS Subscribers for the first European GPRS Networks in 2001
(Actual figures and Estimates)

Chapter 4 - Other GSM Mobile Data Technology


Figure 4 Migration Paths from 2G to 3G


4.1 HSCSD


4.1.1 High Speed Data over Standard GSM Networks


Table 8 Network Operators Offering HSCSD


4.1.2 Availability of HSCSD


Table 9 HSCSD-enabled Handsets


4.1.3 The Success of HSCSD


4.1.4 Will HSCSD compete with GPRS in 2002?


4.2 EDGE


4.2.1 Beyond GPRS


4.2.2 New Coding Schemes for New Data Speeds


Graph 9 Data Speeds per Timeslot with Each GPRS and EDGE Coding Scheme


4.2.3 Implementing EDGE


4.2.4 The Future of EDGE in Relation to GPRS

Chapter 5 - The Slow Adoption of GPRS


Graph 10 The Reasons for the Slow Adoption of GPRS in Western Europe


Graph 11 The Most Important Reasons Given for the Slow Adoption of GPRS
in Western Europe by Perceived GPRS Target Market in 2002


5.1 Mobile Content and Data Applications


5.1.1 Problems with the Mobile Internet


Graph 12 Percentage of Internet Users who Use their Mobile Phone to
Access the Internet


Graph 13 Mobile Phone Versus Desktop for Amazon Purchasing


Graph 14 The Drawbacks of Wireless Internet Access


5.1.2 The Absence of Appropriate Services


Graph 15 Is there Enough Mobile Data Content to Attract Consumers to
GPRS?


5.1.3 The Need for a Killer Application


5.2 Handset Manufacturers Let the Network Operators Down


5.2.1 Problems with Availability


5.2.2 Problems with Usability


5.3 Technical Glitches


5.3.1 Another Promise not Kept


5.3.2 Not Ready for Deployment yet?


5.4 Problems with New Billing Systems and Prices


5.4.1 Pricing is Important


5.5 The Failure to Adequately Market GPRS


5.5.1 Concentrating on the Wrong Application


5.5.2 Does GPRS Technology Require Marketing?


5.6 The Absence of GPRS Roaming


5.6.1 The Importance of Roaming for Business Users


5.6.2 The Growing Importance of Consumer GPRS Roaming


5.7 visiongain Conclusions: The Long List of Absences

Chapter 6 - Cornering the Corporate Market


6.1 What can GPRS Offer the Business User?


Graph 16 Purchases in a Typical Large Organisation by Expenditure


6.2 The Target Market of 2002


Graph 17 What are the Target Markets for GPRS at the Moment?


6.3 Corporations Go Mobile


6.3.1 The Statistics


6.3.2 Horizontal Versus Vertical Applications


6.4 Corporate Email


6.4.1 Recent Research


6.4.2The Proliferation of Corporate Email Solutions


6.4.2.1 The Remote Retrieval of Corporate Email - Some examples of
Available Solutions


6.4.2.2 Push Email - Examples of Available Solutions


6.4.3 Mobile Email as aDriver of GPRS


6.5 Wireless Connections to Data Sources


Table 10 The Most Important Features in Next Generation Corporate
Handhelds


6.5.1 The Advantages of Remote Access to Corporate LANs


6.5.2 Remote Access to the Internet - traditional web browsing versus
simplicity


Graph 18 The Benefits of Wireless Internet Access


Graph 19 Average Length of Mobile Data Sessions


6.5.3 The Complete Mobile Office - RedM Solution


6.6 Vertical Business Applications


Figure 5 Benefits Associated with Some Key Vertical Applications


6.6.1 More ways to Improve Behind the Scenes Productivity


6.6.2 Keeping the Client Happy


6.7 The Most Appealing Mobile Devices for Corporations


6.7.1 One Device or Many?


6.7.2 The New Breed of PDAs


6.8 The Threat of Wireless LANs


Figure 6 GPRS Communications when compared to Wireless LAN


6.9 visiongain Conclusions


6.9.1 Are Corporate Solutions the GPRS "Killer Application"?


6.9.2 One Integrated Solution


6.9.3 The Long Term Picture: Corporate Adoption of GPRS


Graph 20 Would Business Users Prefer to Pay a Flat Monthly Rate for
Unlimited Use of Mobile Data Services than Pay per Kilobyte of
Information?

Chapter 7 - Reviving Consumer Confidence


7.1 What can GPRS offer the Consumer?


7.2 The Importance of the Consumer Market


Graph 21 What will be the Target Markets for GPRS in 2005?


7.3 Using Messaging as a Springboard


Table 11 Mobile Messaging Revenues in Europe 2000-2005 (EURBillion)


Graph 22 Call Minutes and Text Messages Per User Per Month(UK,
1998-2001)


7.3.1 Following the Patterns Set by SMS


Table 12 The Content of Text Messages sent in the UK (by gender, per
week)


Graph 23 The Demand for More that Just Plain Text


7.3.2 MMS with Content


7.3.3 MMS Services Drive GPRS Usage


7.3.4 Instant Messaging - from PCs to Handhelds


7.3.4.1 IM on PCs


7.3.4.2 Key Indicators of the Potential of Wireless IM


7.3.4.3 Current Wireless IM


7.3.5 The Role of Messaging in Consumer GPRS Adoption


Graph 24 What will be the Most Successful Applications of MMS?


7.4 Stimulating Consumer Usage of the Mobile Internet and the Internet


Graph 25 The Appeal of Wireless Internet Access


7.4.1 Lessons from the Past


7.4.2 Lessons from Japan


Graph 26 Mobile Data Users in Japan (2000-2001)


Table 13 Comparisons between Competing Japanese Data Services


Graph 27 Favourite Uses of Web-enabled Phones in Japan


7.4.3 Why has i-mode been so Successful?


Graph 28 Comparision between the First Half 2000 and the Third Quarter
2001 Mobile Portal Services in Europe and the U.S.


Graph 29 Comparision of Mobile Portal Services and Content between Asia
Pacific, Europe, North America and Latin America


7.4.4 i-mode in Europe


7.4.5 Internet Made Wireless: The Microsoft versus Symbian Debate


7.4.6 Vertical Consumer Applications


7.5 The Importance of Consumer Billing Systems


7.5.1 Postpaid Consumers


Graph 30 Would Consumers Prefer to Pay a Flat Monthly Rate for Unlimited
Use of Mobile Data Services than Pay per Kilobyte of Information?


Table 14 Examples of GPRS Pricing Structures - Australia, Austria,
Finland, Germany, Greece, Sweden, UK


7.5.2 Prepaid Consumers


7.6 The Consumer GPRS Handset


7.6.1 The Diversification of Handsets


7.6.2 "The Year of the Smartphone"


Figure 6 Specifications of the Nokia 7650


7.7 visiongain Conclusions

Chapter 8 - visiongain Conclusions


8.1 Can GPRS-enabled Mobile Data be a Success?


8.2 Concentrating on the Future


8.3 Is there a 2.5G Killer Application?


8.4 The Effect of GPRS on GSM Evolution


8.5 The Future of GPRS


8.5.1 The Number of GPRS Subscribers in 2007


Graph 31 What will be the Ratio between GSM/GPRS and GSM-only Users in
Western Europe in 2005?


Graph 32 Predicted GPRS Subscribers 2001-2007


8.5.2 Who will be the GPRS Users in 2005?


Graph 33 What will be the Target Markets for GPRS in 2002 and 2005?


Graph 34 In 2005, will the Only GPRS Users be Business Users?


8.5.3 Usage of GPRS Applications in 2005


Table 15 Wireless Internet Users 2000-2005 (millions)


Table 16 The Most Used form of Messaging in 2005


Graph 35 Amount of Data and Voice Traffic (1998-2005)


8.5.4 Revenue Generated from Data in 2010


Graph 36 Worldwide Mobile Revenues: % Voice and Data (2000-2010)


Graph 37 Projected Revenues for Wireless Voice and Data
Services(1999-2004)

Appendix A - visiongain's GPRS 2002 Survey


Part 1: The Questionnaire


Part 2: The Results


Table 17 Question 1: How do you account for the slow adoption of GPRS by
subscribers in Western Europe?


Table 18 Question 2: At the moment, what is the main target market for
GPRS?


Table 19 Question 3:In your opinion, what will be the main target market
for GPRS in 2005?


Table 20 Question 4: Which of the the following statementsdescribes, in
your opinion, the future impact of GPRS on other GSM-related
technologies?


Table 21 Question 5: In 2005, what do you expect to be the ratio between
GSM/GPRS users and GSM-only users on GSM networks in Western Europe?


Table 22 Question 6a: "At the moment, there is not enough mobile data
content to attract consumers to GPRS."


Table 23 Question 6b: "GPRS benefits the network operator (in terms of
work efficiency and capacity) more than it benefits the end user (in
terms of enhanced mobile data access)."


Table 24 Question 6c: "Consumers would prefer to pay a flatmonthly rate
for unlimited use of mobile data services rather pay per kilobyte of
information."


Table 25 Question 6d: "Business users would prefer to pay a flat monthly
rate for unlimited use of mobile data services rather pay per kilobyte
of information."


Table 26 Question 6e: "In 2005, the only GPRS users will be business
users."


Part 3: The Sample


Graph 38 Respondents by Country


Graph 39 Respondents by Job Type


Appendix B - Other Research


Accenture Research


e-MORI Study


Enterprise Time Management Study


Goldman Sachs Study


The GSA Mobile Portals Study


Q3 2001


Q1 2002


The GSA Usability Review of Mobile Portals


iGillotResearch Study


Network Operators:


Airtel


Alands Mobile


Amena


AT & T Wireless


Batelco


Ben Nederland


Birla AT&T


Bite


Bitel


Blu


BM Telecom


Bougyes Telecom


BT Cellnet


Cable & Wireless


CellC


Cesky Mobile


China Mobile


GPRS 2002


China Unicom


Chunghwa Telecom


Cingular West


Cingulr Wireless


Connect


Connex


Cosmote


CYTA


Diax


Digi


Digifone


DNA FInland


D2 Vodafone


Eircell


EMT


Entel


Entel Movil


Jupiter Metrix Study


MORPACE International/Comverse Research


Research in Motion's Survey


Soundview Technology


visiongain's Future Messaging Survey


Graph 40 Respondents by Area of the World


Table 27 Respondents by Type of Firm


Appendix C - About visiongain

A List of Companies Mentioned in This Report:





E-Plus


Etisalat


Europolitan


EuroTel Praha


FarEasTone


France Telecom


FTML


Fujian Mobile


GIF


Globe Telecom


Hrvatski Telekom


Hutchison


IAM


Indosat


Islandsimi


JMTS-Fastlink


J-Phone


KDDI


KG Telecom


KPN Mobile


KPN Orange


Kyvistar


Landssimmin


Libertel


LMT


Magticom


Max.Mobil


MCC


Microcell


Millicom


MMO2


Mobifon


Mobilix


Mobilkom


MobilRom


Mobinil ECMS


Mobistar


Mobitel


MTN


MTS Russia


M1


Natrindo


Netcom


New World


NS RIB


NTT DoCoMo


Nuevatel


Omnitel


One


One2One


Optimus


Optus


Orange


Orange, UK


Pacific Century


Panafon


Pannon


Partner


People's Phone


Polkomtel


Powertel


Proximus


P&T


PTC


PTK Centertel


Radiolinja


Reliance Infocom


Rogers AT & T


Saudi Telecom


Telecommunications


SCS-900


SFR


Shanghai Unicom


Si.Mobil


SingTel


Smart Communciations


SmarTone


Sonera


Sonic Duo


Sonofon


STA Andorra


Starhub


Stet Hellas


Suomen 2G


Swisscom


TAC


Tango


TA Orange


Telcel


Tele2


Telecel


Telecom FL


Telecom Italia Mobile


Telecom Personal


Tele Danemark


Telefonica Moviles


Telenor Mobile


Tele.ring


Telfort


Telia Denmark


Telia Finland


Telia Sweden


Telsim


Telstra


TMN


T-Mobile


TransAsia


Tunisie Telecom


Turkcell


UMC


VIAG Interkom


Vimpelcom


VIPnet


Vodacom


Vodafone


Vodafone UK


Voicestream


Westel


WindYunnan PTA


Other Companies:


ADC


Albert Heijn


Alcatel


Anite Telecoms


AOL


ChangingWorlds


Cisco


Commtag


Convergys


Cybird


Dell


Dinnersite.nl


Endemol


Ericsson


Eurosport


Gemplus


GSM Association


IBM


ICCL


Idigo


Hallmark


Hewlett Packard


Hudson


KPMG


Meteoconsult


Microsoft


Motorola


NEC


Network365


Nokia


Nortel


Openet


Overnet Data


Palm


Qualcomm


Radio538


Red-M


Research In Motion (RIM)


Reuters


Riot-e


Siemens


SNS Bank


Sony Ericsson


Sunrise


Symbian


Texas Instruments


Toshiba