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Push-to-Talk: Market Analysis and Forecasts 2005-2010Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Visiongain Published: January 2005 Product Code: R155-058 Description With a number of deployments having occurred globally in 2004, Push-To-Talk remains one of the hottest topics in the wireless industry for 2005 and beyond. We have seen increased visibility from both operators and handset manufacturers with regards to their PTT plans and commitments in 2004, and expect the pace to quicken in 2005 onwards. What are your company’s plans for PTT for 2005 and beyond? Is your company falling behind its rivals? What are the strategies and pricing plans of the leading companies in this area?
At the beginning of 2005, over 30 mobile operators offer commercial PTT services worldwide, over three-quarters of which are outside the US market. On the surface, Europe remains cautious towards the technology but visiongain’s findings from its second annual report on the subject "Push-to-Talk: Market analysis and forecasts 2005-2010" indicate that virtually all of the operators in the region having a PTT programme. A major contributor for this trend has been Orange’s announced deployment plans in its territories and the decision by handset leader Nokia to incorporate PTT on the majority of its GPRS/W-CDMA handsets. Asian carriers have also embraced PTT enthusiastically and look set to dominate the market by the end of the decade. Unlike the majority of the data applications that operators have launched that promise to add a few euros or dollars to a subscriber's monthly ARPU, PTT is, at least initially, being packaged as a high-end service, one that could significantly increase service providers' subscriber revenues. However two critical issues - interoperability and the latency of GSM/CDMA PTT networks - need to be resolved, and this is set to happen in 2006. Visiongain believes that once the issues are resolved and providing mobile operators get their pricing and marketing strategies correct, especially in targeting the nascent and untapped consumer market, PTT could generate almost $15 billion in service revenue worldwide by 2010. The 140+ page report provides an overview of the push-to-talk market by region, including updated information and analysis on handsets and solutions by the leading vendors, and operator deployments, trials and launches with a particular emphasis on pricing, technology performance and the effects that a launch has had on the operator’s metrics. The report also details the potential of this technology in the consumer and corporate markets both in the US and globally, and provides subscriber and revenue forecasts. Key points contained in this unique industry report include:
Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1 Executive Summary Chart 1: US PTT users as a % of total US mobile subscribers 1.1 Defining push-to-talk 1.2 Focus of this report Chapter 2. Market overview 2.1 A brief history of push-to-talk 2.2 Nextel’s history 2.3 What is driving the PTT roll-outs? Chart 2: ARPU by US mobile operator Chart 3: Churn rate of US mobile operators 2.4 Why operators should deploy PTT services Table 1: PTT industry drivers 2.5 Mobile operator objectives with PTT 2.5.1 Boosting revenue 2.5.2 Reducing costs 2.5.3 Increased acquisition 2.5.4 Lowering churn 2.6 Benefits of deploying a PTT service Table 2: Benefits of using PTT for end-users and operators 2.6.1 Benefits to end-users 2.6.2 Benefits to mobile operators 2.6.3 How PTT can help small businesses 2.6.4 Leisure groups and communities 2.6.5 Families, teenagers and social groups 2.6.6 Benefits to corporate users 2.7 PTT market segments (traditional) Table 3: Typical PTT business users 2.7.1 Blue and grey collar workers 2.7.2 White-collar workers 2.7.3 Government and public safety 2.7.4 Recommendations Table 4: Nextel's target vertical industries with PTT 2.8 Positioning PTT with cellular services Chapter 3. Technical focus 3.1 How PTT works 3.2 Overview of iDEN network architecture 3.2.1 iDEN system characteristics Figure 1: iDEN system architecture 3.2.2 TDMA/Channel definition 3.2.3 M16-QAM Digital Modulation 3.2.4 Signal formats carrier numbers vs frequencies 3.2.5 Audio digitisation and compression 3.2.6 iDEN mobile operations 3.2.6.1 Control channel acquisition 3.2.6.2 Mobile synchronisation 3.2.6.3 Mobile registration Figure 2: Ongoing mobile registration 3.2.6.4 Mobile assisted handovers Figure 3: Serving and neighbour cell measurements 3.2.7 iDEN call scenario 3.2.8 iDEN mobile transmit power control 3.2.9 Security features 3.3 Overview of PTT over GSM/CDMA networks 3.3.1 PTT as a simple user interface 3.3.2 Incorporating new content and services 3.3.3 Leveraging multimedia services 3.3.4 Transport, signalling and control Figure 4: Major components of a generic GSM/CDMA PTT architecture 3.3.5 Application layers 3.3.6 Service data flow Figure 5: PTT service data flow in a cross-network environment 3.3.7 Push-to-media service data flow Figure 6: P2M service data flow 3.4 Deploying a PTT service 3.5 The PTT value chain and new market entrants Chapter 4. Vendor solutions Table 5: Summary and description of PTT vendor solutions 4.1 Ericsson Figure 7: Ericsson's Instant talk solution 4.2 Nokia Figure 8: Network architecture of Nokia's PTT solution 4.3 Siemens 4.4 Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson PTT standard initiative 4.4.1 The Internet Multimedia System 4.4.2 GSM/GPRS PTT specifications result in mixed market impact Figure 9: PoC ratification process and its components 4.5 Qualcomm 4.5.1 QChat Figure 10: BREWChat architecture 4.5.2 BREWChat 4.5.2.1 A compelling use of BREW 4.5.2.2 BREWChat does not match the performance of Qchat 4.5.2.3 Ease of download 4.6 Sonim Figure 11: Sonim PTT system solution 4.7 Mobile Tornado 4.8 Togabi/CommWorks Figure 12: Push-to-talk on carrier networks 4.9 Motorola 4.9.1 Motorola interoperability solution 4.10 fastmobile Table 6: Key features of fastchat 4.11 Kodiak Figure 13: The Kodiak Real-Time Exchange System 4.12 Other initiatives 4.12.1 HP Figure 14: HP push-to-talk network Table 7: HP solution components 4.12.2 Agilent 4.12.3 Lucent 4.12.4 IPWireless 4.12.5 UTStarcom 4.12.6 eStara Table 8: PTT developers and networks testing their services Chapter 5. Handsets Table 9: PTT handset models and launch dates 5.1 Integrating PTT into handsets Image 1: Motorola's i95cl iDEN handset Table 10: Hardware and software PTT handset implementation 5.2 Device integration costs 5.3 Test platform for PTT handsets 5.4 Nokia Image 2: The Nokia 5140 phone Image 3: Nokia 6600 5.5 Sanyo Table 11: Sanyo VM4500 features and specifications 5.6 Kyocera 5.7 Samsung 5.8 Sony Ericsson 5.9 LG 5.10 Motorola 5.11 Siemens 5.12 fastchat-enabled handsets Image 4: fastchat application 5.13 PTT handset forecasts and outlook Chart 4: Global PTT handset sales, 2004-2010, and as a percentage of total handsets sold worldwide Chart 5: PTT handset sales by region, 2005 and 2010 Chapter 6. Regional adoption of PTT Table 12: PTT networks deployed/in trials worldwide 6.1 North America 6.1.1 Overview Table 13: PTT pricing comparison of US operators 6.1.2 Nextel Table 14: Nextel subscriber and service revenues by quarter Table 15: Operating costs per user (OCPU) Table 16: Nextel's high-value customer segments 6.1.2.1 Countering increasing competition 6.1.2.1 How Nextel countering increasing competition 6.1.2.1.1 Direct Connect nationwide 6.1.2.1.2 NextMail 6.1.2.1.3 Nextel Multimedia Messaging 6.1.2.1.3 WiDEN 6.1.2.1.4 Direct Talk 6.1.2.1.5 Implementing Next Generation Dispatch 6.1.2.1.6 International Direct Connect 6.1.2.2 Looking to go global 6.1.2.3 Nextel remains well positioned for success Chart 6: Nextel network quality index and churn rate Chart 7: Nextel ARPU and churn, Q3 2003-Q3 2004 6.1.2.3 Effects of Sprint/Nextel merger on US PTT 6.1.3 Verizon Wireless Table 17: Verizon's PTT service pricing 6.1.3.1 Latency concerns with GSM/CDMA PTT networks Table 18: Comparison of Nextel and Verizon's PTT services 6.1.3.2 Impact of Verizon’s PTT launch Table 19: Percent of 'pre-churn' customers evaluating Verizon Wireless Chart 8: Verizon ARPU and churn, Q3 2003-Q3 2004 6.1.4 Sprint PCS Table 20: Sprint PTT service charges 6.1.4.1 Sprint’s PTT target segments and strategy 6.1.4.2 Pros and cons of Sprint's PTT service Chart 9: Sprint ARPU and churn, Q3 2003-Q3 2004 6.1.5 Telus Mobility Chart 10: ARPU and churn rate of Canadian mobile operators, Q3 2004 Table 21: Telus Q3 2004 and Q3 2003 financial results 6.1.6 Southern LINC Chart 11: Southern LINC revenues, 2001-2003 6.1.6.1 Targeting enterprises with pre-pay 6.1.6.2 Benefits of Recharge 6.1.6.3 Effectively coping with new competition 6.1.7 Alltell Table 22: Impact of Touch2Talk on ALLTEL's network usage and financials 6.1.7.1 Pros and cons of Touch2Talk 6.1.7.2 Touch2Talk offers elegant pricing Table 23: Touch2Talk pricing and bundles 6.1.8 Other North American PTT deployment plans 6.1.9 Forecasts and market potential Chart 12: US PTT subscribers, 2004-2010 Chart 13: US consumer interest in PTT Chart 14: US non-iDEN PTT revenues, 2004-2010 6.2 Europe 6.2.1 European market overview Chart 15: European PTT handset penetration, 2004-2010 6.2.1.1 Orange Table 24: Orange's PTT deployment plans Table 25: Talk Now features 6.2.1.2 T-Mobile 6.2.1.3 Mobilcom 6.2.1.4 Israel Table 26: Cellcom’s PTT target segments 6.2.2 European interest in PTT Chart 16: European consumer interest in PTT 6.2.3 Will PTT succeed in Europe? Chart 17: European PTT subscriber growth, 2004-2010 6.2.4 End-user uptake and pricing strategies Chart 18: European PTT revenue forecast, 2004-2010 6.3 Latin America 6.3.1 NII Chart 19: NII subscribers by country 6.3.1.1 NII's market characteristics Table 27: Breakdown of NII operating companies 6.3.2 Avantel 6.3.3 BellSouth Table 28: BellSouth Panama PTT service pricing options Table 29: BellSouth Venezuela (Telcel) PTT service pricing Table 30: BellSouth Chile PTT service pricing options Table 31: BellSouth Guatemala PTT service pricing options 6.3.4 Unefon 6.3.5 Other regional deployments 6.3.5.1 Mexico Chart 20: ARPU comparison of Mexican mobile operators 6.3.5.2 Brazil 6.3.6 Regional outlook for PTT Chart 21: Latin America PTT subscribers, 2004-2010 6.4 Asia Chart 22: PTT subscribers in Asia, 2004-2010 6.4.1 New Zealand 6.4.2 Australia Table 32: Telstra’s PTT service pricing 6.4.3 Singapore 6.4.4 Taiwan 6.4.5 India 6.4.6 China 6.4.7 Thailand Table 33: AIS push-to-talk service pricing Chapter 7. Evolving market segments Table 34: Extending the range of target PTT segments 7.4.1 Penetrating the teen market 7.4.1.1 Boost Mobile 7.4.2 Targeting families 7.4.3 Will business professionals warm to PTT? Table 35: Mobile applications which can improve productivity, according to corporate decision-makers and business end-users Chart 23: PTT users by market segment in 2004 (%) 7.4.4 Recommendations 7.4.4.1 Marketing GSM/CDMA PTT services 7.4.4.2 How to price PTT services Chart 24: Preferred form of payment for PTT Chapter 8. Risks and recommendations Table 36: Nextel's differentiated sales and distribution strategy Table 37: Issues surrounding PTT testing 8.1 Interoperability 8.1.2 Inter-carrier operability 8.1.3 PTT interoperability is progressing 8.2 Latency issues 8.2.1 Call set-up latency 8.3 Deployment risks 8.4 Recommendations Conclusions 9.1 PTT's industry impact Chart 25: Global PTT subscriber growth, 2004-2010 Chart 26: Global PTT revenues, 2004-2010 Chart 27: PTT revenues by region in 2010 9.2 PTT as a cultural phenomenon Chart 28: SMS revenue as a % of total operator revenue in the US and Europe Chart 29: Is there demand for Push To Talk services outside the US market? 9.3 Will PTT cannibalise SMS revenues? Chart 30: Number of SMS messages sent in UK, 1999-2004 Chart 31: European SMS vs other data service revenues, 2001-2009 9.4 Impact on voice messaging Chart 32: World ARPU by voice and data, 2002-2009 9.5 Impact on MMS Chart 33: European MMS revenues, 2002-2009 Table 38: European MMS volumes, 2002-2006 9.6 Lessons learned from Elisa's PTT trials 9.6 Packet or circuit switched PTT? Appendix A About visiongain Appendix B Report evaluation form Organisations and companies mentioned in this report 3GPP Agere Agilent Alcatel Alltel America Movil AOL AT&T Wireless Avantel Becton Bell Mobility BellSouth International Bluegrass Cellular Boost Mobile Brasil Telecom Cellcom China Mobile Chunghwa Telecom Cingular Wireless Cisco Coca-Cola CommWorks Compaq Compete Comverse CSR Dialog GSM Elisa Ericsson eStara Fastlink fastmobile FedEx HP Hutchison Essar Intel IPWireless IT&E Overseas Kodiak Networks Kyocera Lehman Brothers LG Linux Lucent M1 Maxis Communications Microcell Microsoft Ministry of Communications MIRS mmO2 Mobilcom Mobile Data Association Mobile Tornado Motorola Nextel Communications Nextel International Nextel Partners NII Holdings Nokia NTT DoCoMo NZ Fire Service Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) Optus Orange PalmOne Pingtel Qualcomm Rogers AT&T Wireless Samsung Samsung Telecoms America Sanyo Siemens Sonim Sony Ericsson Southern Company Southern LINC Spirent Communications Sprint Sprint PCS Symbian Tata Teleservices Telecel Telecom New Zealand Telefonica Moviles Telephia TelMex Telstra Telus Mobility Texas Instruments T-Mobile T-Mobile USA Togabi Unefon UTStarcom Verizon Verizon Wireless Vodafone Webraska Winphoria Yahoo! 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