Mobile TV Analysis & Forecasts to 2012

Visiongain believes that Mobile TV will be successful, however it will not be the "killer application" that some had believed it would be. Rather, the service is likely to be a stepping stone to a broader, more complete mobile multimedia experience and convergence. This is just one of the findings of visiongain's brand new Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2012.

Outside of Japan and Korea, Mobile TV has been slow to take off, however deployments in Europe and North America are increasing as the technology and handsets become available. With Italy the most advance Mobile TV market in Europe, what can other European operators learn from them? 2007 through 2008 is critical for launches, and high quality is essential on launch to secure subscriber numbers and satisfaction. What can operators do to ensure this? Which subscribers should you be targeting? This unique report tells you the answers.

Handsets are set to increase over the next 18 months. Samsung & LG currently have the greatest number of TV compatible models available, essentially due to working in the Korean and Japanese markets. Will they be able to transfer this knowledge successfully to the North American and European markets? If they can and a TV handset becomes an essential purchase (whether accessed or not), then their strengths within the 3 major technologies (DVB-H, DMB, MediaFLO) may hit Nokia and other manufacturers hard. Will Nokia's N77 have the commercial break through that they hope? The cost does certainly begin to reach affordable levels with Nokia pitching it at $480. This new report looks at the critical role of the handset for success in Mobile TV. You must stay fully informed and up-to-date on how this market is changing. You can do this simply by ordering and reading this report.

The new report "Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2012" details how with unclear standards and even more confused pricing models the success of Mobile TV is far from guaranteed. However mobile TV is set to go ahead and you need to be fully informed of the opportunities within it. Mobile TV has the potential to become a success in the non-voice segment. In this 180+ page report you will learn how advertising can be integrated into the Mobile TV environment cost-effectively for the operator, broadcaster and ultimately the user.

Why You Need To Buy This Report:

With charts, tables, figures and analysis this report provides insight into the services, pricing and business model of mobile operators that have already launched TV, as well as providing 'best and worst case' subscriber and revenue forecasts up until 2012. The report gives an overview of the Mobile TV market in its current and future form, the technology behind the services and the various solutions offered by the leading vendors. The challenges facing the industry are discussed and recommendations to help this service to reach its full potential are also provided.

Methodology:

The information contained in this report is from primary industry sources. This includes one-on-one interviews with companies, with governmental bodies and academic institutions. Analysis has also been drawn from company reports, whether annual financial returns or white papers.

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1. Introduction

1.1 The mobile TV concept

Chart 1.1: Global mobile data revenues 2006-2012

1.2 Defining mobile TV

1.3 Focus of this report

1.4 Executive Summary

2. Overview

2.1 Convergence of mobility and broadcasting

Figure 2.1: Internet-led technology convergence

Chart 2.1: Mobile penetration rates in selected countries

2.1.1 Mobiles and TV are already successful bedfellows

Chart 2.2: TV generated SMS and MMS, 2002-2007

Chart 2.3: SMS TV revenue, 2002-2007

2.2 Digital TV is a catalyst for mobile TV

Table 2.1: Digital TV penetration by European country, 2006

2.3 The DTV landscape in Asia-Pacific

Chart 2.4: Number of households with digital TV in Asia-Pacific, 2005 and 2012

Table 2.2: Digital TV penetration in Asia Pacific region, Q1 2006

2.4 The first steps of mobile digital TV

2.4.1 TVMobile

Table 2.3: TVMobile viewer numbers by time of the day

Table 2.4: TVMobile advertising spot buy rates

Figure 2.2: Overview of TV mobile digital TV network infrastructure and platforms

2.4.2 Terrestrial Broadcasting Tokyo Pilot Project

Table 2.5: Tokyo Pilot phase 2 outline - video transmission

Table 2.6: Tokyo Pilot phase 2 experiment outline - EPG/data transmission

2.5 Is Mobile TV still an important topic?

2.6 Why push for mobile TV services?

Chart 2.5: Time spent watching TV

2.6.1 Mobile operator objectives with mobile TV

2.6.1.1 Higher revenue

2.6.2 Increased acquisition

2.6.3 Lower churn

3. Technical focus

3.1 Digital technology and standards behind TV on mobile phones

Table 3.1: Standards and their characteristics for digital terrestrial TV broadcasting

Figure 3.1: World mobile TV deployment

3.2 DVB

Figure 3.2: Technical choices for a mobile operator

3.2.1 DVB-H

Figure 3.3: DVB-H signal architecture

3.3.1 DVB-H specification

3.4 IPDC

Figure 3.4: Using IP datacast technology to make TV mobile

3.4.1 IP Datacast Forum

3.4.2 Differences between terrestrial and mobile digital TV

Table 3.2: Technology comparison between fixed digital TV and mobile phone TV

3.4.3 DVB Project

3.5 MBMS

Figure 3.5: Delivery of DVB-TV services via UMTS

3.5.1 Using cellular for mobile Itv

3.6 DAB

3.7 ISDB-T

Figure 3.6: Functional block diagrams of an ISDB-T receiver

3.8 ATSC

Figure 3.7: ISDB-T segments, modulation and transfer rate

3.9 OFDM

Table 3.3: COFDM characteristics

3.9.1 BST-COFDM

3.10 MPEG-4 AVC/H.264

Chart 3.1: Coding efficiency comparison

Table 3.4: MPEG-2 vs MPEG-4 comparison

Table 3.5: Technical and licensing comparison of video codecs for broadcasting on mobile devices

3.11 DMB

3.11.1 DMB versus DVB-H

3.12 MediaFLO

3.13 TDTV

3.13.1 TDTV trial in the UK

3.14 Placeshifting TV

3.14.1 Slingbox

4. Handsets

Chart 4.1: Mobile handset shipments, 2007-2012

Table 4.1: Examples of current mobile TV handsets

4.1 Integrating TV functionality into mobile handsets

Table 4.2: Technical requirements for receiving terrestrial digital TV on mobile phones

Figure 4.1: Digital TV handset design architecture

4.2 Screen resolution

4.3 User input and interactive menus

4.4 Device integration costs

4.5 Multi technology mobile TV chips

4.6 Vendor devices and strategies

4.6.1 Nokia

4.6.1.1 Nokia N92

Table 4.3: Key features of the N92

4.6.1.2 Nokia N77

Image 4.1: Nokia N77

4.6.1.3 Nokia predications for DVB-H handset market

4.6.2 Samsung

4.6.2.1 SCH-M220 - the first broadcast TV handset

4.6.2.2 SGH-P900 and SGH-P910

Image 4.2: SGH-P900

Table 4.4: SGH-P900 key specifications

4.6.2.2.1 Other 2006 3GSM releases

4.6.2.3 SGH-P930

Image 4.3: SGH-P930

4.6.2.4 SCH-U620

4.6.2.5 SCH-B600

4.6.3 LG

4.6.3.1 LG-U900

Image 4.4: LG-U900

4.6.3.2 LG KU950

4.6.3.3 LG VX9400

4.6.4 Sony Ericsson

4.6.4.1 Work with Sony

4.6.4.2 Sony Ericsson Bravia

4.6.5 Motorola

4.6.5.1 Z8

Image 4.5: Z8

4.6.5.2 MS800

4.6. HTC

4.7 TV handset forecasts

Chart 4.2: Mobile digital TV handset shipments, 2007-2012

Chart 4.3: TV-phone shipments by region, 2005 and 2009

5. Vendor solutions

5.1 Samsung

5.1.1 New Samsung chipset?

5.2 The world's first DVB-H modulator

5.3 Toshiba

5.4 Broadcom / Sand Video

5.5 DiBcom

5.6 Microtune

5.7 Imagination Technologies

5.8 Siemens

5.9 SCM Microsystems

5.10 TI

6. Issues to consider

6.1 Copyright protection

6.1.1 Digital Rights Management and content protection

Figure 6.1: Buying rights for DRM protected content

6.1.2 The role of clearinghouses

6.1.3 Is protection needed?

Figure 6.2: Copyright protection for broadcasting to home television

Figure 6.3: Copyright protection for mobile broadcasting

6.2 Legal complications

6.3 Selling the idea of mobile TV to broadcasters

6.4 Spectrum Issues

Table 6.1: Applicable frequencies for mobile TV

6.5 Will TV-phone users have to pay licence fees?

6.5.1 Regulating content

6.6 Overcoming industry cynicism

6.7 Battery life and screen size issues

7. Global markets and deployments

7.1 Regional overview

7.2 Japan and Korea

7.2.1 Mobile digital TV via satellites

Figure 7.1: Satellite DMB network structure

7.2.2 DMB consortium business plans

Chart 7.1: DMB Consortium ownership

Figure 7.2: Satellite consortium business plan

7.2.3 Regulatory and other hurdles

Table 7.1: Regulatory environment and regulations related to business approval

7.3 Japan

Charts 7.2, 7.3 and 7.4: Demand for mobile TV in Japan by age and gender

7.3.1 1seg

7.3.1.1 Problems with 1seg

7.3.1.2 1seg prospects

7.3.2 DoCoMo

7.3.2.1 DoCoMo and 1seg

7.3.2.2 DoCoMo mobile TV partnerships

7.4 South Korea

Chart 7.5: Korean mobile subscribers over 3G networks

7.4.1 T-DMB services

7.4.2 TU Media

Chart 7.6: TU Media subscriber growth

Chart 7.7: TU Media subscription costs

7.5 Australia: Optus

7.6 Thailand: AIS

7.7 Vietnam

7.8 Europe

7.7.1 Finland

7.7.1.1 Finland IPDC trials

Table 7.2: IPDC technology SWOT analysis

Chart 7.8: Finland mobile TV trial questions

7.7.1.2 Digita and Nokia TV launch

7.7.2 Albania

7.7.3 Italy

7.7.3.1 3 Italy

7.7.3.2 Vodafone Italy

7.7.3.3 TIM

7.7.4 Germany

7.7.4.1 DVB-H trials

7.7.5 Sweden

7.7.6 UK

7.7.6.1 Virgin Mobile

7.7.6.2 Arqiva and O2

7.7.6.3 Sky TV and Qualcomm

7.7.7 Norway

7.8 US

7.8.1 Verizon

Table 7.3: Verizon Mobile TV service plans

7.8.2 AT&T / Cingular

7.8.3 Modeo

7.8.3.1 DVB-H future in the US?

8. Analysis and forecasts

Chart 8.1: 3G network launches worldwide, Q4 2001-Q2 2005

8.1 New opportunities and the mobile TV value chain

Figure 8.1: IP datacast business ecosystem and value chain

8.1.1 Content providers

8.1.2 Content aggregators

8.1.3 IPDC service operator

8.1.4 Broadcast network operators

8.1.5 Telecoms network operators

8.1.6 Telecoms service operators

8.1.7 Handset manufacturers

8.1.8 Consumers

8.2 Can mobile TV suceed in Europe?

Chart 8.2 Mobile phone owners in selected European countries who endorse the idea of mobile TV

8.3 The business case for mobile TV

8.3.1 Pay monthly or pay as you watch?

8.3.2 Advertising

Chart 8.3: Daily media consumption in selected countries

8.3.2.1 How will mobile TV advertisements work?

8.3.3 Interactivity

8.3.4 Importance of pricing

Chart 8.4: Main reasons given for giving up on mobile TV and video

8.4 Mobile TV content services

Chart 8.5 Preference of mobile TV channels in Finland

Chart 8.6: Preference of mobile TV channels in Sweden

Chart 8.7: Preference of mobile TV channels in the UK

8.4.1 Electronic Service Guide (ESG)

Chart 8.8: The amount of use of additional services during VTT’s mobile TV trial

8.4.2 Value-added services

8.5 Market demand and usage patterns

Chart 8.9: Mobile TV log-ins by time of day

8.5.2 News, entertainment or movies?

8.5.3 Mobile TV consumption by location and time of day

Chart 8.10: Mobile TV subscribers, 2007-2012

8.6 Revenues

Chart 8.11: Revenues from mobile TV, 2007-2012

8.6.1 Revenue sharing

8.7 Pricing models

Table 8.1: Possible pricing scenarios

8.8 Customer targets and segmentation

Chart 8.12: Mobile phone ownership by age

Table 8.2: Likely mobile TV usage scenarios of different age groups

8.8.1 Learning from the video download market

8.8.2 Handset penetration is not a pre-requisite market driver

8.9 Will mobile TV cannibalise video-service revenues?

Table 8.3: Cost per MByte for different mobile networks

8.9.1 Streaming vs broadcasting

8.9.2 Complementary or competitive?

8.10 Conclusion

9. Conclusions and recommendations

9.1.1 Increased number of deployments

9.1.2 Handsets

9.1.3 Spectrum issues

9.1.4 Fragmented model

9.1.5 How to price mobile TV

9.1.5.1 Advertising

9.1.6 Challenge to operators

9.1.7 Do people really want mobile TV?

9.1.8 Conclusion

9.2 Recommendations

9.2.1 For mobile operators:

9.2.2 For handset manufacturers

9.2.3 For technology vendors

9.2.4 For Broadcasters