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The Future of Convergence: New Devices, Services And Growth Opportunities

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Insights
Published: June 2006
Product Code: R162-720
Description
The digital revolution is being led by several industries, including semi-conductor, communications industry, entertainment, consumer electronics, and of course computer; key enabling technologies for the digital revolution include the conversion from analog to digital communications and the Internet Protocol (IP). For the consumer, convergence means more features in a single device, while for the media providers and conglomerates it means remaining competitive in the struggle for market dominance. For device manufacturers, the ability to produce innovative devices will increasingly be the driver for retaining customers as penetration rates of devices increase. Customers are demanding new functionalities, meaning that manufacturers are responding by developing a range of converged devices, such as mobile phones with mp3 players, cameras and email access, or video recorders with hard drives. Technological challenges touch on several areas, including user interface, software, hardware, communications, semi-conductor, and manufacturing. Challenges on the hardware, communications, semi-conductor, and manufacturing fronts are the usual - faster, smaller, cheaper, and more reliable.

Your key questions answered:
  • What are likely to be the most successful converged devices?
  • How is consumer demand shaping industry convergence strategies?
  • Will Europe or the US be the faster-growing market for mobile TV services to 2009?
  • How will broadband penetration rates affect the growth of IPTV?
  • Why should PVRs and video-on-demand be perceived as complementary technologies?
  • Will the music-playing mobile phone be the end of the iPod?
  • How will converged devices and services change the role of content owners and communications operators?
  • Which converged device manufacturer has the best chance of success going forward?
This new report will provide you with:
  • Examination of the mobile phone market, in particular converged devices such as phones with Internet and email access, hard-disk drive phones, mp3 phones and camera phones.
  • In-depth analysis of the mobile TV services and devices market to 2009.
  • Assessment of the mid- to long-term market for portable content jukeboxes.
  • Discussion of the trends and dynamics affecting the market for
  • Internet TV services.
  • Review of the battle between PVRs and video-on-demand and the impact it will have on the on-demand TV services of tomorrow.
  • Analysis of the market size and drivers for the portable video recorders.
  • Overview of the digital revolution and analysis of the challenges convergence face.
  • Forecasts of global shipments, including handsets and video recorders.
Some key findings from this report:
  • The value of audio-based mobile music services is set to double by 2010, exceeding $11 billion.
  • In 2009, it is estimated that 167 million mobile TV-enabled handsets will be shipped, representing almost 18% of the entire 935 million handsets forecast for that year.
  • Converged portable consumer electronics (CE) products have only begun to appear in the last 24 months. The nascent market is currently predominantly served (in the US and Europe) by Thomson, ARCHOS and Microsoft.
  • The global penetration of broadband is essential for the success of IPTV. In 2004, the average penetration of broadband in Europe and North America was 26%. By 2008 however, that will have almost doubled to 49%.
  • The US has been slower to the IPTV market than the other regions. As a result, the US will continue to trail behind Europe in IPTV, with under four million subscribers by the end of 2009.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary

The digital revolution

Converged mobile devices

Portable content jukeboxes

The Internet, TV and the PC

Personal video recorders

Conclusions




Chapter 1 The digital revolution

Summary

Introduction


Converged devices

Convergence of content providers

Fixed Mobile Convergence

Convergence challenges


The content owner market today




Chapter 2 Converged mobile devices

Summary

Introduction


Market context and sizing


The PDA market


Market analysis


The smartphone market


Market sizing


Smartphone operating systems



The mobile Internet

Mobile email

Music on the move


The mobile phone as ‘iPod killer’

Brand building

Sony ‘Walkman’-branded phones

Apple’s response

Challenges


Camera phones and video


Digital camcorder phones and ‘multimedia computers’

Nokia leads the way


Mobile TV


Market sizing


By handset

By subscriber revenue


Technical challenges


WiFi and Voice-over-IP mobile phones

Hard-drive mobile phones




Chapter 3 Portable content jukeboxes

Summary

Introduction


The emergence of the mobile phone

Consumer electronics market today


Portable content jukeboxes


What content?

Competing devices


Laptop

The converged camera

Mobile phone

Nokia N-Gage

Sony PSP



Conclusions




Chapter 4 The Internet, TV and the PC

Summary

Introduction


IPTV has the potential to change the broadcasting landscape

Broadband penetration is essential for IPTV’s success


Increasing broadband penetration rates within Europe will speed up the development of IPTV services.


IPTV vs. cable TV

The consumer - the only winner?


IPTV market sizing


Europe

North America

Internet-based TV: the future?


TV and the PC: targeting web-based on-demand content

Conclusions


Video streaming market development

The alliance of content and distribution

On-demand TV and the broadband home




Chapter 5 Personal video recorders

Summary

Introduction

Market drivers

Personal video recorders


Market sizing


Conclusions


Only a pay-TV product?

Likely to watch more TV programs

Changes required in advertising models




Chapter 6 Conclusions

Summary

Convergent strategies for the future


Why the mobile will rule the end-game

The importance of the network operator

Product control to limit the potential of the game-playing-mobile

The opportunity for the content owners

Required: scaleable content distribution platforms

A centralized content database




List of Figures

Figure 2.1: Global handsets by device, 2004 vs. 2010

Figure 2.2: Examples of Business Handsets - PalmOne Treo 650, RIM Blackberry 7230 & Nokia 9500 Communicator

Figure 2.3: Examples of Smartphone Devices: Orange SPV-C500, O2 xda IIs & RIM Blackberry 7100v

Figure 2.4: Examples of Nokia’s E-Series of Business Phones for Mobile Email Access

Figure 2.5: ‘Sony Walkman’-branded mp3 mobile phones, W850 and W710

Figure 2.6: Motorola’s Rokr ‘iTunes’ mobile phone

Figure 2.7: Nokia’s N93 digital camcorder mobile phone

Figure 2.8: Nokia’s N73 ‘multimedia computer’

Figure 2.9: Portable video devices

Figure 2.10: Global broadcast TV to mobile revenue ($m), 2004-2009

Figure 2.11: Global broadcast TV to mobile revenue ($m) by region, 2004-2009

Figure 2.12: Samsung’s 8GB HDD mobile phone, SHG-i310

Figure 3.13: Examples of portable content jukeboxes

Figure 3.14: In usage terms the PCJ is a subset of the mp3 market

Figure 3.15: BenQ DC s40: the converged camera and mp3 player

Figure 3.16: The Nokia N-Gage

Figure 3.17: The Sony PSP

Figure 4.18: Consumer broadband access on the technology adoption curve

Figure 4.19: The relative demand for broadband and narrowband services

Figure 4.20: Household broadband penetration by country, 2004-2008

Figure 4.21: Digital TV growth in Europe, 2004-2009

Figure 4.22: Digital TV growth in the US, 2004-2009

Figure 5.23: VoD and PVR installed base in Europe, 2000 - 2005

Figure 5.24: Personal video recorder forecast (millions), 2004-2009

Figure 6.25: Impact of time on the price/value of different content

Figure 6.26: Simplified secured content distribution platform




List of Tables

Table 2.1: Global handset shipments (millions), 2004-2009

Table 2.2: Global smartphone shipments (in millions), 2003-2010

Table 2.3: Advanced OS volume sales and market share, 2005

Table 2.4: Global mobile TV handset shipments (in millions), 2004-2009

Table 2.5: EMEA mobile TV handset shipments (in millions), 2004-2009

Table 2.6: US mobile TV handset shipments (in millions), 2004-2009

Table 2.7: Asia Pacific mobile TV handset shipments (in millions), 2004-2009

Table 5.8: Personal video recorder forecast (millions), 2004-2009

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