Australia - The Emerging FttH Market

•          High Level Overview of key international developments.
•          Global overview of subscriber statistics.
•          The key to commercial viable FttH is a trans-sector based approach.
•          Economic multiplier effect of FttH infrastructure for health care, education and smart grids.
•          The $43 billion national broadband initiative in Australia is leading the world.
•          There are many aspects that need to be implemented in the right way; the infrastructure company, the regulations and the demand side.
•          The latest developments in the FttH  projects, especially in Greenfield markets

1. Overview & Statistics

1.1 Introduction: FttH going forward

1.1.1 Stimulus driving optical developments

1.2 Fibre-based access

1.2.1 Early trials - brief overview

1.2.2 Massive changes in network management required

1.2.3 Low hanging FttH fruit

1.2.4 Consumer benefits to low-cost fibre

1.2.5 FttH deployment costs

1.2.6 Enterprises not driving FttH

1.3 Leading markets

1.3.1 Asia

1.3.2 USA

1.3.3 Europe

1.4 FTTx market statistics

1.5 Regulating fibre: a global issue

1.5.1 Regulating copper networks - a lesson

1.5.2 Networks under strain

1.5.3 The stronger case for fibre

1.6 FttH drivers

1.6.1 National economy drivers

1.6.2 Social drivers

1.6.3 Entertainment drivers

1.6.4 Business drivers

1.6.5 No e-government without fibre

1.6.6 ‘Go with the flow’ strategies

1.7 FttH business models

1.7.1 Vertically integrated model

1.7.2 Open network model

1.7.3 Structural separation a must for FttH

2. Trans-sector Thinking

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Australian leadership

2.2.1 Digital Economy Industry Work Group (DWEIG)

2.2.2 Trans-sector project: smart grids

2.2.3 Trans-sector project for social services

2.2.4 Smart infrastructure

2.2.5 Trans-sector project e-health

2.3 National welfare depends on new thinking concepts

2.4 work in progress: political leadership

2.5 Trans-sector thinking at highest levels in Australia

2.6 The multiplier effect

2.7 Smart communities, where do we start?

2.8 We lack the structures to implement trans-sector visions

2.9 Trans-sector regulation

2.9.1 Regulations need to be rewritten

2.9.2 FttH will change telecom models

2.9.3 Utilities-based regulation

2.10 The sectors

2.10.1 Telecommunications

2.10.2 Government communication and information

2.10.3 Healthcare

2.10.4 Education and e-science

2.10.5 Smart grids

2.11 Smart communities and smart buildings

2.12 Smart cities introduction

2.13 Building smart cities to ease the stress

2.13.1 A population of nine billion people

2.13.2 The role of smart cities

2.13.3 We need to use people power

2.13.4 Education, information, empowerment

2.13.5 Changes are starting to drive action

2.14 Key components of smart cities

2.14.1 Smart buildings/homes

2.14.2 Smart grids

2.14.3 Home networks

2.14.4 Next generation telecoms

2.14.5 Open networks

2.15 Strategies for smart communities

2.15.1 Tran-sector thinking

2.15.2 Rebuilding communities

2.15.3 Greenfield communities

2.16 Brief examples of smart communities

2.16.1 India

2.16.2 China

2.16.3 Europe

2.17 Intelligent/smart technologies and systems

2.18 Intelligent Communities Forum

3. National Broadband Network

3.1 Overview & analysis

3.1.1 Details of the NBN proposal

3.1.2 National Broadband Corporation

3.1.3 Regulatory issues

3.1.4 FttH infrastructure

3.1.5 The business model

3.1.6 NBN is moving in the right direction - analysis mid-2009

3.1.7 The early projects

3.1.8 Trans-sector thinking

3.1.9 Open network = innovation and affordability

3.1.10 Co-development of fibre and the digital economy

3.1.11 What’s next for Telstra?

3.1.12 No policies, just opposition from the Opposition

3.2 Critical considerations

3.2.1 Governance and management of the NBN/NBC

3.2.2 Regulations - critical considerations

3.2.3 Wholesale

3.2.4 Technology critical consideration

3.2.5 Basic infrastructure

3.2.6 Co-development of the Digital Economy

3.2.7 Strategic differences of an NBN

3.2.8 Comments from international experts

4. FttH Market Analyses

4.1 Analysis

4.1.1 FttH becoming a reality

4.1.2 FttH starts making business sense

4.1.3 FttH still an expensive exercise

4.1.4 Mass market FttH still years away

4.2 FttH and the digital economy

4.2.1 Co-development is essential

4.2.2 Infrastructure comes before services (unfortunately)

4.2.3 Whole-of-government approach is essential

4.2.4 No digital economy without open networks

4.2.5 The Rudd Team provides national leadership

4.3 Different FttH business models

4.3.1 Clever network rollouts and home installation

4.3.2 New housing developments

4.3.3 Start with low-hanging FttH fruit

4.4 Different fibre scenarios

4.4.1 FttN versus FttH networks

4.4.2 Telstra’s initial FttN plan

4.4.3 Cabinetisation in New Zealand

4.5 FttH and the electricity infrastructure

4.6 Forecasting FttH

4.7 Regional fibre

5. Operators and Retailers

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Network operators

5.2.1 Summary of FttH network operators

5.2.2 Arise

5.2.3 Broadcast Engineering Services (BES)

5.2.4 Clubcom Utilities

5.2.5 GeoMedia

5.2.6 HaleNET

5.2.7 OPENetworks

5.2.8 Opticomm

5.2.9 thePacific.Net Limited

5.2.10 Pivit

5.2.11 FuzeCONNECT / Service Elements

5.2.12 Silver Telecom

5.2.13 Telstra

5.2.14 TelstraClear

5.2.15 TransACT Communications Pty Ltd (TransACT)

5.3 Retailers

5.3.1 Service pricing

5.3.2 Starter packages

5.4 Private networks

5.4.1 Belswan Retirement Village case study

6. Projects and Developments

6.1 COLT - Ballarat

6.1.1 Optical fibre network

6.1.2 Wireless broadband

6.2 Tasmania

6.2.1 Australia’s FttH testbed

6.2.2 Analysis of Tassie’s broadband history

6.3 FttH broadband proposal for Brisbane

6.4 Western Australia

6.4.1 FttH in Perth - discontinued

6.4.2 BES projects in WA

6.5 ICON (intra-government communications network) - ACT

6.6 R&D, science and education projects

6.6.1 AARNet

6.6.2 CeNTIE

6.6.3 GrangeNet

6.7 National FttH Plan

7. Greenfield Projects & Providers

7.1 Definition of terms

7.2 The importance of broadband

7.2.1 Market demand

7.2.2 Key issue for land developers

7.2.3 The USO and greenfields

7.3 Statistics on fibre-enabled communities

7.3.1 Communities by state

7.3.2 Communities by provider

7.3.3 Communities by developer

7.4 Summary of key communities

7.4.1 Aurora, VIC

7.4.2 Banksia Grove, WA

7.4.3 Coomera Waters, QLD

7.4.4 Emerald Lakes, QLD

7.4.5 Fernbrooke, QLD

7.4.6 Lyons Estate, NT

7.4.7 Prince Henry at Little Bay, NSW

7.4.8 Somerly, WA

7.4.9 TasCOLT, TAS

7.4.10 Varsity Lakes - The Landing

7.5 List of FttH communities

8. Glossary of Abbreviations

List of Tables and Exhibits

Table 1 - Estimated costs of fibre deployment - USA

Table 2 - Fibre penetration per home passed, select European countries - January 2009

Table 3 - Proportion of fibre subscribers per home passed, select European countries - January 2009

Table 4 - European FTTx subscribers and homes passed - 2007 - 2008

Table 5 - Worldwide top 10 markets with FTTx penetration > 1% - 2007; 2009

Table 6 - Worldwide FTTx subscribers - 2007 - 2008

Table 7 - Worldwide FTTx share of broadband market - 2004; 2006 - 2008

Table 8 - Worldwide FttH port shipments - 2007 - 2008

Table 9 - Worldwide market share of FttH port shipments by technology - 2007 - 2008

Table 10 - Homes connected to fibre - 2005 - 2010

Table 11 - FttH communities in Australia and New Zealand - 2008

Table 12 - Percentage of connected homes in Australian states and NZ - 2008

Table 13 - FttH communities in Australia and New Zealand by provider - 2008

Table 14 - Percentage breakdown of FttH communities by provider - 2008

Table 15 - FttH communities by developer - 2008

Exhibit 1 - Explanation: optical fibre

Exhibit 2 - Broadband - infrastructure blueprint

Exhibit 3 - Smart City - Masdar City - Abu Dhabi

Exhibit 4 - Smart homes

Exhibit 5 - Learning from e-cars

Exhibit 6 - FttH prerequisites

Exhibit 7 - Residential broadband (BB) growth predictions - next ten years

Exhibit 8 - Infrastructure blueprint

Exhibit 9 - Summary of FttH network operators

Exhibit 10 - Overview of FttH retailers - 2008

Exhibit 11 - FttH R&D projects from TasCOLT

Exhibit 12 - GrangeNet consortium members and role

Exhibit 13 - Terminology definitions

Exhibit 14 - List of active FttH communities in Australia - July 2008

Exhibit 15 - List of proposed FttH communities in Australia - July 2008

Exhibit 16 - List of active and proposed FttH communities in New Zealand - July 2008