2006 Global Mobile Communications - Voice still the Killer App

1. THE FUTURE OF VOICE (FIXED, MOBILE, VoIP)

1.1 Telephone companies - experts in negative marketing

1.1.1 Don’t use the phone

1.1.2 Don’t use the mobile phone

1.1.3 Don’t use the fixed phone

1.1.4 The IP solution

1.2 Fixed voice market

1.2.1 Market under pressure

1.2.2 Rearguard skirmishes in the voice market

1.2.3 A neglected market

1.2.4 Fixed-line SMS

1.3 Fixed-mobile convergence

1.4 Mobile voice

1.4.1 Only option in developing countries

1.4.2 Mobile forced to move into commodity territory

1.4.3 Mobile companies failed to jump the S-curve

1.4.4 Multimodal services

1.5 VoIP

1.6 Pricing strategies

1.6.1 Telecoms price developments

1.6.2 From bundling to triple play

1.6.3 New ways to measure ARPUs

2. MOBILE REVENUE AND SUBSCRIBER STATISTICS

2.1 Mobile revenue developments - 2005

2.2 Subscriber growth

2.2.1 Historical growth (1996-2003)

2.2.2 Slowing mobile subscriber growth (2002-2005)

2.2.3 Mobile statistics published in 2005

2.2.4 Mobile statistics published in 2004

2.2.5 Subscriber forecasts reports current and historical

2.2.6 Reports from 2004

2.3 Usage

2.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)

2.4.1 Early ARPU developments

2.4.2 Stabilisation of ARPU

2.4.3 Third generation ARPU

2.4.4 Will 3G save mobile revenue?

2.4.5 ARPU statistics from 2005

2.5 Mobile call charges

2.6 Roaming - a $50 Billion market

3. MOBILE COMPETITION AND REGULATIONS

3.1 Mobile competition

3.1.1 Lack of mobile competition (analysis)

3.1.2 Key issue: termination rates

3.1.3 The effects of liberalisation and competition

3.1.4 Closed network pricing hampering mobile competition

3.2 Wireless VOIP coming to the rescue

3.3 Roaming

3.3.1 Global roaming - introduction

3.3.2 Users frustrated with mobile operators

3.3.3 No optimal routing from GSM MoU

3.3.4 Zebra

3.3.5 Interstandard roaming from Vodafone

3.4 Mobile number portability

3.4.1 Different flavours

3.4.2 Global overview

3.4.3 Key issues

3.4.4 Delaying tactics

3.4.5 Portability strategies

3.4.6 Technical issues

3.5 Mobile fraud

4. PREPAID AND MVNOS

4.1 Prepaid mobile services

4.1.1 Introduction

4.1.2 ARPU comparisons with post-paid

4.1.3 Subscriber statistics

4.1.4 Prepaid technologies

4.2 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)

4.2.1 Definitions

4.2.2 Marketing considerations

4.2.3 MVNO developments - an analysis

4.2.4 Multimodal services

4.2.5 Mobile Virtual Network Enablers (MVNEs)

5. FIXED MOBILE CONVERGENCE (FMC)

5.1 Incentives to converge

5.2 Substitution well and truly underway

5.3 Mobile consumer spending passing fixed-line

5.4 Fixed voice still cash cow

5.5 Pricing - key to success

5.6 Converging Networks

5.7 Next Generation Networks (NGN)

5.8 Converged fixed/mobile service in the UK

5.8.1 BT Mobile Home Plan

5.8.2 ‘Bluephone’ from BT

5.9 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA)

5.10 Mobile - the missing link

5.10.1 Mobile forced to move into commodity territory

5.10.2 Mobile companies failed to jump the S-curve

5.11 New business models for mobile

5.11.1 Restructuring overdue, but won’t happen soon

5.11.2 Choices have to be made

5.11.3 Vertical integration or permission based?

5.11.4 Customer profiling

6. THIRD GENERATION MOBILE (3G)

6.1 3G - An Analysis in 2006

6.1.1 The future of 3G

6.1.2 3G is dead - long live WiMAX

6.1.3 Is Super 3G WIMAX?

6.1.4 Slow start so far

6.1.5 Will 3G survive as a separate business model?

6.1.6 The time for 3G has arrived, but no cheering from the operators

6.2 Market issues for 3G

6.2.1 What is 3G?

6.2.2 The future of 3G

6.2.3 Mobile structural separation needed for survival

6.2.4 Possible 3G strategies

6.2.5 Shifting paradigms

6.2.6 Business realities

6.2.7 The essential role that 3G can play

6.2.8 Multiple terminal applications

6.3 3G - statistical overview

6.3.1 Definitions

6.3.2 Published 3G statistics

6.3.3 Never has so much been paid, by so many, for so little

7. MOBILE INFRASTRUCTURE

7.1 Overview

7.2 CDMA

7.2.1 CDMA losing the battle

7.2.2 History and overview

7.2.3 Statistical data

7.2.4 Market realities

7.2.5 CDMA SIM (smartcard)

7.2.6 CDMA will not challenge GSM

7.2.7 Technical

7.2.8 CDMA 450

7.2.9 cdmaOne

7.2.10 CDMA2000

7.2.11 CDMA2000 1xEVDO

7.2.12 TD-SCDMA

7.3 TDMA

7.4 GSM

7.4.1 History

7.4.2 Implementation of GSM

7.4.3 GSM Statistics

7.4.4 GSM developments

7.4.5 The GSM Association

7.4.6 GSM technology

7.5 Bluetooth and UWB

7.5.1 Introduction to Bluetooth

7.5.2 Bluetooth dating

7.5.3 Bluetooth security

7.5.4 Analysis of Bluetooth

7.5.5 Bluetooth market statistics

7.5.6 Bluetooth technology

7.5.7 UWB (UltraWideband)

7.5.8 Bluetooth-UWB merger

8. MOBILE SPECTRUM

8.1 Spectrum developments

8.2 Radio spectrum utilisation

8.3 Satellite spectrum

8.4 Technological developments

8.5 Market developments

8.6 Spectrum trading

8.6.1 The brave new world of spectrum trading in 2005

8.7 World Radiocommunication Conference 2003

8.7.1 WRC - International Forum

8.7.2 Wireless LANS get global allocation

8.7.3 IMT and beyond

8.7.4 Public protection and disaster relief

8.7.5 High altitude platforms stations

8.7.6 Aeronautical services

8.7.7 High Density applications for broadband

8.7.8 Earth Stations on board vessels approved

8.7.9 Morse Code - not gone yet

9. MOBILE EQUIPMENT MARKET

9.1 Market overview

9.1.1 Problems with the WIPI standard

9.1.2 BYO base stations

9.2 Wireless infrastructure statistics

9.2.1 Reports from 2004

9.3 Personal Digital Assistants (PDA)

9.3.1 PDA market set to move to mobile suppliers

9.3.2 Reports from 2005

9.3.3 Reports from 2004

9.4 Tablet PCS

9.4.1 Reports from 2004

9.5 Mobile handset market

9.5.1 Overview

9.5.2 Reports from 2006

9.5.3 Reports from 2005

9.5.4 Reports from 2004

9.6 SIM card developments

9.7 Multimode devices

9.8 Satellite phones

9.9 Safety and security issues

9.9.1 Exploding phones

9.9.2 Problems continue in 2004

9.9.3 Mobile phones targeted by viruses

9.10 Unsustainable handset subsidies

10. SATELLITE MOBILE SERVICES

10.1 Mobile satellite services

10.1.1 MSS in emergencies

10.2 Global satellite supply

10.3 Major MSS operations

10.3.1 Inmarsat

10.3.2 OmniTRACS (Qualcomm)

10.3.3 Mobile Satellite Ventures (MSV)

10.3.4 Orbcomm

10.3.5 Japanese - Korean mobile satellite - 2004

10.3.6 Asia Cellular Satellite

10.3.7 Thuraya

10.4 Overview of major LEO/MEO consortiums

10.4.1 Globalstar, out of the woods

10.4.2 ICO Global Communications

10.4.3 Iridium

10.5 Broadband-to-air

10.5.1 Connexion

10.5.2 Tenzing

10.5.3 Verizon Airfone

11. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

Exhibit 1 - Triple play pricing examples

Exhibit 2 - Overview of countries with numbering plans

Exhibit 3 - NP: key issues

Exhibit 4 - GSM Security Features

Exhibit 5 - Comparative characteristics of a MVNO

Exhibit 6 - European 3G systems installed - 2003 and 2004

Exhibit 7 - Overview of 3G activities around the globe

Exhibit 8 - TD-SCDMA Technology

Exhibit 9 - Frequency bands for GSM

Exhibit 10 - What is spectrum?

Exhibit 11 - Frequency bands and their usage

Exhibit 12 - International frequency assignment plan - 2110 - 2450MHz bands (excerpts)

Exhibit 13 - Interesting spectrum developments

Exhibit 14 - Mobile satellite services

Table 1 - Mobile subscribers by region - 1993 - 2005

Table 2 - Worldwide cellular population - 1993 - 2005

Table 3 - Top countries ranked by mobile penetration - 1998; 2001 - 2005

Table 4 - Top 20 mobile subscriber countries and annual growth per region - Q1 2005

Table 5 - Top 15 mobile operators worldwide by subscriber numbers - Q2, 2005

Table 6 - Prepaid and total mobile subscribers by operator - 2Q, 2005

Table 7 - Global forecasts for mobile - 2005 - 2010

Table 8 - World mobile subscriber base by geographic zone - 2003 - 2004 (historical)

Table 9 - Mobile subscriber distribution by region - 2000; 2004; 2008

Table 10 - Largest five mobile markets - 2003; 2009

Table 11 - Comparison mobile - fixed business usage - 1996 and 2005

Table 12 - APRU for major mobile operators worldwide - Q2, 2005

Table 13 - Average mobile ARPU by region and annual change - Q2, 2004 - 2005

Table 14 - Mobile ARPU for selected companies - Q2, 2004 - 2005

Table 15 - Mobile ARPU (Voice, Data and Combined) for selected companies - Q3, 2005

Table 16 - Mobile market share - 1992 - 2004

Table 17 - Top 15 mobile operators by prepaid users - Q3 2005

Table 18 - Fixed vs mobile telephony - 1991 - 2004

Table 19 - WCDMA subscribers by country - 2003 - 2004

Table 20 - 3G subscribers in Asia Pacific countries (excl Japan) - 2004; 2009

Table 21 - 3G worldwide subscribers by technology - 2003 - 2004 (historical

Table 22 - 3G spectrum licence cost per capita

Table 23 - World cellular subscribers by technology - March 2004

Table 24 - CDMA worldwide subscribers - 1997 - 2004

Table 25 - Growth of GSM market - 1994 - 2005

Table 26 - World cellular subscribers by technology - 2003; 2004; 2006

Table 27 - GSM networks on air - 2003 - 2004

Table 28 - Subscribers by GSM technology - March 2004

Table 29 - Worldwide PDA unit sales by vendor - 2003 - 2004

Table 30 - Worldwide PDA revenues by vendor - 2003 - 2004

Table 31 - Worldwide PDA sales by operating system - Q1, 2003 and Q1, 2004

Table 32 - Worldwide PDA sales by vendor - Q1, 2003 and Q1, 2004

Table 33 - Worldwide PDA sales by vendor - Q2, 2003 and Q2, 2004

Table 34 - Tablet PC sales in EMEA by vendor - Q2, 2003 and Q2, 2004

Table 35 - Mobile handset revenues worldwide - 2002 - 2006

Table 36 - Global mobile terminal revenues - 2003 - 2005

Table 37 - Mobile systems sales revenue - 2004 - 2007

Table 38 - Handset suppliers market shares - 1997 - 2004

Table 39 - Handset sales and market shares - first two quarters 2005

Table 40 - Worldwide mobile handset sales - 2001 - 2003; 2005; 2007

Table 41 - Worldwide mobile terminal sales by vendor - 2002 - 2003

Table 42 - Mobile handset market shares - March 2004

Table 43 - Global sales and market shares by vendor - Q2, Q3, 2004

Table 44 - Worldwide mobile device sales market share - Q1, 2004

Table 45 - Global handset sales and market shares by vendor - 2003, 2004

Table 46 - Mobile handset sales by vendor - Q2 and Q3, 2004

Table 47 - Mobile phone features desired by US users - June 2004