Global Telecoms Analyses and Forecasts

• Telecoms developments - Strategic Overview
• Predictions 2005-2015
• Forecasting (qualitative) 2006
• The Future Of Voice (Fixed, Mobile, VOIP)
• NGN
• The FttH market in 2006
• Mobile Content - Industry and Market Analyses
• WiMAX
• Broadcasting - Interactive TV - Overview and Analysis
• Transitions to a Digital Industry
• Digital Media - Analyses, Issues, Developments

1. TELECOMS DEVELOPMENTS - STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

1.1 A rapidly changing global telecoms market

1.1.1 Electronic consumption becomes an economic driver

1.1.2 Incumbents clash with their governments

1.1.3 Pro-active telcos can stay ahead of regulations

1.1.4 Governments will continue to lead telecoms policies

1.1.5 Lack of policies = lack of innovation

1.1.6 Facilities based competition is the way to go

1.1.7 Infrastructure duopolies look like the best option

1.1.8 Unbundling does lead to infrastructure roll out

1.1.9 Telcos that fail to change will go under

1.1.10 Developing world still a long way to go

1.1.11 Key trends and developments

1.2 Infrastructure developments

1.2.1 Fibre-to-the-home (FttH) infrastructure

1.2.2 IP-based developments

1.3 Rapidly changing voice market

1.3.1 Milking the voice market

1.3.2 Mobile merging with wireless

1.3.3 Fixed-Mobile Conversion (FMC)

1.3.4 Financial outlook for the telco industry

1.4 Broadband market

1.4.1 Broadband: a technology concept

1.4.2 Wireless broadband

1.4.3 Broadband over Powerlines (BPL)

1.4.4 Developments will be non-linear

1.5 Broadband-based video communications

1.5.1 Tele-presence

1.5.2 Tribes, clans and communities

1.5.3 Broadcasting over IP (BoIP)

1.5.4 IPTV

1.5.5 Hollywood coming to the party

1.5.6 The digital divide

1.6 Broadcasting-based developments

1.6.1 Traditional broadcasting

1.6.2 Digital TV

1.6.3 Home media centres

1.6.4 DOCSIS 3

1.7 Mobility markets

1.7.1 Mobile telecoms

1.7.2 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)

1.7.3 Wireless mobility

1.7.4 Companies rolling out 802.16e

1.7.5 HSDPA and IMS

1.7.6 Fixed-mobile convergence

2. TELECOMS PREDICTIONS - 2005 - 2015

2.1 Paul Budde’s approach to forecasting

2.1.1 The use of scenarios

2.2 Long-term Telecoms revenue trends - 2010 - 2015

2.2.1 By markets

2.2.2 By products

2.2.3 By industry

2.3 Mobile

2.4 Broadband

2.5 Wireless VS fixed broadband

2.6 Regulation - structural changes in the industry

2.7 So where to go from here?

3. FORECASTING (QUALITATIVE) 2006

3.1 The market in ten years time

3.2 High-level developments

3.3 Short-term developments

3.4 Medium-term developments

3.4.1 Key trends

3.5 Internet economy

3.5.1 One million companies already depend on the Internet economy

3.5.1.1 Internet economy is looking for bypasses

3.6 Industry structures

3.6.1 Industry Restructuring

3.7 Three distinct segments

3.7.1 Infrastructure

3.7.2 Content

3.7.3 Appliances

3.7.4 Get a 360 degree vision

3.7.5 Separation and integration

3.7.6 The roles of the players

3.7.7 Internet companies might take over the telcos

3.7.8 Media restructuring

3.7.9 Next generation network

3.7.10 To VoIP or not to VoIP?

3.8 New business models

3.8.1 After broadband, triple play will be the next battleground

3.8.2 VoIP the key in triple play

3.8.3 Wholesale opportunities

3.8.4 Telcos learning at great cost

3.9 My prediction: a golden future ahead of us

3.10 China will dominate the industry within 5 years

4. THE FUTURE OF VOICE (FIXED, MOBILE, VOIP)

4.1 Telephone companies - experts in negative marketing

4.1.1 Don’t use the phone

4.1.2 Don’t use the mobile phone

4.1.3 Don’t use the fixed phone

4.1.4 The IP solution

4.2 The future of voice

4.2.1 Market under pressure

4.2.2 Rearguard skirmishes in the voice market

4.2.3 A neglected market

4.2.4 Developments

4.2.4.1 Ringless messages and voicecasts

4.2.5 Fixed-line SMS

4.2.5.1 Testing underway

4.2.5.2 Testing results

4.2.5.3 Fixed-line SMS getting fixed ?!

4.2.5.4 FSMS applications

4.2.5.5 Overview of projects

4.2.5.6 FMMS revenues

4.2.6 Click-to-Talk

4.3 The future of mobile

4.3.1 Voice still the killer app

4.3.2 But data is the future

4.3.3 Rebalancing of the industry

4.3.4 Devices-driven developments

4.3.5 Only option in developing countries

4.3.6 Multimodal services

4.4 VOIP

4.5 Analysis of vendor merge - the future is IT, not telco

4.6 Pricing strategies

4.6.1 Telecoms price developments

4.6.2 From bundling to triple play

4.6.3 New ways to measure ARPUs

4.7 Conclusion

5. NGN

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 Developing from VPNs

5.1.2 Advantages and disadvantages

5.1.3 Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP)

5.1.4 Advantages of NGNs over leased lines

5.1.5 Advantages of NGNs over traditional remote access

5.1.6 Types of NGN

5.1.7 NGN solutions

5.2 Telcos and the nextgen revolution - analysis

5.2.1 Changing telecoms into IT

5.2.2 Nextgen Telcos

5.2.2.1 The new companies

5.2.3 Traditional telcos

5.2.3.1 Sticking to outdated models

5.2.4 Ignoring next-gen structures

5.2.5 Choice: protecting the old or embracing the new

5.2.6 Battle between vested interests and nextgen developments

5.2.7 BT - an NGN leader

5.3 NGN in action

5.3.1 Drivers of NGNs

5.3.2 Key application is telepresence

5.3.3 The shaky position of 3G

5.3.4 New business models are emerging

5.3.5 Voice remains a killer ap

5.3.6 From vertical to horizontal industry structures

5.4 Internet economy requires NGNs - now

5.4.1 Lacklustre beginning by telcos

5.4.2 Businesses start looking at alternatives

5.4.3 NGN requirements

5.5 Nextgen investment strategies

5.5.1 Long term investment required

5.5.2 Competition - not NGNs - is driving prices down

5.5.3 Global telecommunications capital expenditure

5.5.4 Regional telecommunications capital expenditure

5.5.5 Are there any broadband write-offs?

5.5.6 Lose-lose-lose strategy

5.5.7 Who is paying for the decrease in values?

5.6 Broadband VOIP

5.7 Growth of IP-VPN (NGNs)

6. VOIP

6.1 Statistics and forecasts

6.1.1 IP market statistics and forecasts

6.1.1.1 IP forecasts for 2006 and beyond

6.1.1.2 IP statistics for 2005

6.1.2 VoIP and the business sector

6.1.2.1 VoIP deployment trends in business

6.1.2.2 VoIP revenue forecasts for business

6.1.3 VoIP and consumer awareness

6.1.4 IP Centrex to be popular with SME’s

6.2 Analysis

6.2.1 The continuing importance of voice

6.2.2 Give VoIP a chance

6.2.2.1 VoIP isn’t a stand-alone product

6.2.2.2 IP is the key not VoIP

6.2.2.3 Breaking the incumbents’ stranglehold

6.2.2.4 Competition through ULL

6.2.2.5 The need for facilities-based competition

6.2.3 VoIP service quality

6.2.3.1 VoIP quality deteriorating, who cares? I do!

6.2.4 VoIP over hyped

6.2.4.1 VoIP, VoIP and more VoIP

6.2.4.1.1 No future for stand-alone VoIP

6.2.4.1.2 Integrated applications

6.2.4.1.3 Packaged services

6.2.4.1.4 Reluctant SME market

6.2.4.1.5 Internet-based VoIP

6.2.4.2 VoIP takes on the mobile market

6.2.4.2.1 IPdrum

6.2.5 Industry issues

6.2.5.1 To VoIP or not to VoIP

6.2.5.2 Wholesale VOIP and other New Media services

6.2.6 Tips for successful video over IP

6.2.7 Don’t over regulate

6.2.8 VOIP needs to be underpinned by NGNS

6.2.9 Corporate markets

6.2.9.1 VOIP maturing in corporate markets

6.2.9.2 Corporate market demands that incumbents deliver VoIP

6.2.9.3 Corporate VPN

6.2.10 VoIP- a case of evolution, rather than revolution

6.2.10.1 What are the real cost advantages?

6.2.10.2 No leadership from telcos

6.2.10.3 VoIP in triple play models

6.2.10.4 Click to call

6.2.10.5 Internet connection to talk to each other for free - Skype

6.2.11 Wireless VoIP

6.2.11.1 Tromboning: bypassing expensive call charges

6.2.11.2 WiMAX - the ultimate mobile bypass

7. THE FTTH MARKET IN 2006

7.1 FttH analysis - mid 2006

7.1.1 DSL is building the business case for FttH

7.1.2 Growth patterns and predictions

7.1.3 No business case for large-scale deployments

7.1.4 Business drivers

7.1.5 No e-government without fibre

7.1.6 Fibre-to-the-Node and VDSL

7.2 Where is the action in FttH?

7.2.1 Who are the leaders and why?

7.2.2 Initial drivers: utilities and local councils

7.2.3 Business market

7.2.4 Infrastructure upgrades

7.2.5 Corporate optical fibre

7.2.6 New housing developments

7.3 Different FttH business models

7.3.1 National economy drivers

7.3.2 Social drivers

7.3.3 Entertainment drivers

7.3.4 ‘Go with the flow’ strategies

7.3.5 New housing developments

7.4 Telcos still reluctant

7.4.1 Business opportunities for FttH niche telcos

7.4.2 Alternative infrastructure developments

7.5 Structural separation a must for FTTH

7.6 The costs of FttH

7.6.1 AT&T project estimates

8. 3G

8.1 Sorting out the Telstra NEX G confusion

8.2 The future of 3G

8.3 The time for 3G has arrived, but no cheering from the operators

8.3.1 Where is the business case?

8.3.2 Network costs will be driving 3G?

8.3.3 New business scenarios

8.3.4 Competition from disruptive technologies

8.4 The hard realities of the mobile market

8.4.1 The networks simply would not be able to cope

8.4.2 As usual, over-promising and under-delivering

8.5 Slow start so far

8.6 Will 3G survive as a separate business model?

8.6.1 3G cannibalising 2G

8.6.2 2G is fighting back

8.6.3 Data moving to wireless broadband

8.6.4 3G for voice and enhanced voice applications

8.6.5 Mobile operators absorbed by voice competition

8.6.6 Mobile, wireless convergence

8.6.7 Fixed operators have the upper hand

8.7 From 3G to 4G mobile

8.7.1 Service evolution

8.7.2 How to move forward?

8.7.3 What went wrong with mobile data?

8.7.4 Demand is there, supply is failing

8.7.5 Super 3G versus WiMAX

8.7.6 3G Long-Term Evolution (LTE)

8.8 4G will be the end result

9. MOBILE CONTENT - INDUSTRY AND MARKET ANALYSES

9.1 A market still kept hostage - analysis 2006

9.1.1 Not much progress in almost a decade

9.1.2 Still no open networks

9.1.3 Untapped potential

9.1.4 We are a telecoms industry

9.1.5 3G is still a voice-driven development

9.1.6 What do you mean - customer service?

9.1.7 All we need is competition

9.2 New marketing and distribution models

9.2.1 Content providers giving up hope

9.2.2 Manufacturers supporting bypass solutions

9.2.3 The race for content

9.2.4 Branding with partners

9.2.5 The future: value-chain-based scenarios

9.2.6 IPX takes on the walled mobile gardens

9.3 Digital Rights Management (DRM)

9.3.1 The Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)

10. WIMAX

10.1 Fixed wireless analyses - 2006

10.1.1 The promises of fixed wireless

10.1.1.1 Bypassing the fixed local loop

10.1.1.2 Clear benefits

10.1.2 The problems of fixed wireless

10.1.2.1 Dozens of competing technologies

10.1.2.2 Questionable qualities

10.1.2.3 The economics of wireless

10.1.3 Opportunities of fixed wireless

10.1.3.1 Slow moving incumbents

10.1.3.2 Room for a 20% market share

10.1.4 Fixed wireless broadband developments - Mid 2006

10.1.5 Repositioning

10.1.5.1 The wireless battle with DSL has been lost

10.1.5.2 Limited roll-outs

10.1.5.3 WiMAX - Losing the battle in mobile industry

10.1.6 Spectrum developments

10.1.6.1 New technologies will lead a push for spectrum to be opened up

10.1.7 WiMAX and BPL - commercial viability?

10.1.7.1 The wireless and BPL alternative?

10.1.7.2 Delaying WiMAX standards does not not help

10.1.7.3 DSL always depended on incumbents

10.1.7.4 WiFi jungle

10.1.7.5 Public hotspots for consumers a waste of money

10.2 Mobility analyses - Moving into 2007

10.2.1 Personal wireless broadband

10.2.1.1 Business models more important than technologies

10.2.2 WiMAX is losing the battle

10.2.3 The new and the old WiMAX

10.2.4 From 3G to 4G mobile

10.2.4.1 Service evolution

10.2.4.2 How to move forward?

10.2.4.3 What went wrong with mobile data?

10.2.4.4 Demand is there, supply is failing

10.2.5 Super 3G versus WiMAX

10.2.5.1 Wireless broadband next year or perhaps the year after, or…

10.2.6 Long-term evolution path to 4G

11. BROADCASTING - INTERACTIVE TV - OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS

11.1 Introduction

11.1.1 Definitions

11.1.2 Interactive TV to generate billions

11.1.3 First interactions with TV

11.1.4 Personal TV (choose and control)

11.1.5 Broadband or IPTV

11.2 Market analysis 2006

11.2.1 iTV - 35 years on

11.2.2 Snail pace progress

11.2.3 Digital TV (DTV) 2nd Internet platform

11.2.4 Shock to the ‘couch potato’ syndrome

11.2.5 Innovation required

11.3 i-Advertising - analysis

11.3.1 Individually addressed advertisements

11.3.2 And again…permission-based models

11.3.3 Revenue opportunities

11.4 Statistics and forecasts

11.4.1 Forecasts beyond 2006

11.4.2 Reports for USA from 2005

11.5 Business modelling

11.5.1 Real-time or non-real-time

11.5.2 Permission-based through SMS

11.5.3 Subscription or itinerary?

11.5.4 Technology issues

12. TRANSITIONS TO A DIGITAL INDUSTRY

12.1 Introduction

12.2 The most important telecoms transition issues appearing from our models and scenarios

12.2.1 Horizontal value chains

12.2.2 The value chains are no longer in one direction: from supplier to consumer

12.2.3 Bandwidth demand will continue to go up

12.2.4 ‘Services’ are not a separate layer but are part of every layer

12.2.5 Because of more intelligence in devices the ‘place’ of services is shifting

12.2.6 Another big sudden jump-transition, in fact two at the same time is to G4 mobile &FttH

12.3 New kinds of innovations

12.4 What may be next after WMesh+fiberMAN

12.5 Postsciptum

12.6 References

13. DIGITAL MEDIA - ANALYSES, ISSUES, DEVELOPMENTS

13.1 The rise and rise of the Internet economy

13.2 The future is digital people, not digital media

13.3 The Internet

13.3.1 The killer app

13.3.2 High-speed, always-on Internet

13.4 It’s worthwhile fighting for open networks

13.4.1 Structural changes to the industry are overdue

13.4.2 The farce of infrastructure-based competition

13.4.3 We should stand firm on open networks

13.4.4 The telcos failed for 30 years - Internet succeeded in 10

13.4.5 Open networks engine for innovation and growth

13.4.6 Large economic benefits

13.4.7 BT leading the way

13.4.8 Safe harbours undermine the Internet economy

13.4.9 Bill of Internet Rights

13.4.10 Telcos hampering growth of Internet economy

13.4.11 IP is upsetting the telcos

13.4.12 Dutch cable operators obliged to open networks

13.4.13 Global cities declare open networks

13.4.14 INEC Declaration on Open Networks

13.5 Digital content

13.5.1 Introduction

13.5.2 Watch out for the Internet media companies

13.5.3 Internet media companies -vs- telcos

13.6 Other interesting developments

13.6.1 Skype SMS

13.6.2 Videoconferencing in telepresence

13.6.3 Bittorrent in digital media devices

13.7 The disruptive effects of digital media

14. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 - Predicted global m-commerce revenues - 2003 - 2005; 2009 - 2010

Table 2 - Telecommunications services revenue share by market - 2005; 2010; 2015

Table 3 - Telecommunications services revenue share by product - 2005; 2010; 2015

Table 4 - Telecommunications services revenue share by industry group - 2005; 2010; 2015

Table 5 - Mobile data revenue as % of total mobile revenue forecast - 2005 - 2015

Table 6 - Mobile penetration in developed and developing markets - 2005 - 2015

Table 7 - Forecasting costs broadband over a 10-year period

Table 8 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next ten years

Table 9 - Wireless as % of fixed broadband forecast - 2005; 2010; 2015

Table 10 - Global telecoms investments - 2005; 2010; 2015

Table 11 - Capital expenditure by region - 2005, 2006

Table 12 - Regional residential and SOHO VoIP subscribers - 2006; 2009

Table 13 - Estimated growth of inbound VoIP traffic - Africa, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Middle

East, Eastern Europe - 2005

Table 14 - VoIP subscribers - Skype, Vonage, France Telecom, Time Warner

Table 15 - VoIP access lines in US - 1999 - 2007

Table 1 - Global wireless broadband market subscribers - 2003 - 2008

Table 2 - Wireless broadband market share by region - 2005

Table 18 - Global wireless broadband subscribers by technology - 2011

Table 19 - DSL, 1Gb/s, DWDM transmission speeds - what does it mean?

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1 - Key revenue trends - period to 2015

Exhibit 2 - A changing industry structure − 2005 - 2010

Exhibit 3 - Massive restructuring is now overdue

Exhibit 4 - New public network concept

Exhibit 5 - Triple play pricing examples

Exhibit 6 - Triple play pricing examples

Exhibit 7 - Nextgen telecoms

Exhibit 8 - Verizon vs Skype

Exhibit 9 - The role of voice

Exhibit 10 - Global outsource market services

Exhibit 11 - BuddeComm VoIP quality survey

Exhibit 12 - Teen pop singer launches own VoIP service

Exhibit 13 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next ten years

Exhibit 14 - FttH costings per home connected

Exhibit 15 - Mobile facts and figures

Exhibit 16 - What users want

Exhibit 17 - Tillevision Model for ICT infrastructure

Exhibit 18 - Tillevision Model

Exhibit 19 - Conjecture Subsidiarty

Exhibit 20 - Fractal repetition of the Internet paradigm

Exhibit 21 - Rural Tellet mobile voice-mail devices

Exhibit 22 - Some application bit rates

Exhibit 23 - Drivers of high-speed Internet