2007 Global Mobile Communications - Statistics, Trends & Forecasts

• Mobile infrastructure and developments;
• Mobile revenue;
• Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and call charges;
• Mobile subscriber statistics including prepaid;
• Termination rates, roaming and Mobile Number Portability (MNP);
• Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO);
• Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC);
• Bluetooth & Ultra Wide-band (UWB);
• Mobile spectrum;
• Mobile Satellite Services (MSS);
• Regional overviews.

1. MOBILE MARKET ANALYSIS - ALL ROADS LEAD TO 4G

1.1 Telephone companies - experts in negative marketing

1.1.1 Don’t use the phone

1.1.2 Don’t use the mobile phone

1.1.3 Don’t use the fixed phone

1.1.4 The IP solution

1.2 The future of voice

1.2.1 Market under pressure

1.2.2 Rearguard skirmishes in the voice market

1.2.3 A neglected market

1.2.4 Developments

1.2.5 Click-to-Talk

1.3 The future of mobile

1.3.1 Voice still the killer app

1.3.2 But data is the future

1.3.3 Rebalancing of the industry

1.3.4 Devices-driven developments

1.3.5 Only option in developing countries

1.3.6 Multimodal services

1.4 All roads lead to 4G

1.5 VOIP

1.6 Analysis of vendor merge - the future is IT, not telco

1.7 Pricing strategies

1.7.1 Telecoms price developments

1.7.2 From bundling to triple play

1.7.3 New ways to measure ARPUs

1.8 Conclusion

2. MOBILE STATISTICS AND FORECASTS

2.1 Mobile - revenue

2.1.1 Mobile usage and call charges overview

2.1.2 Overview of ARPU developments

2.1.3 ARPU statistics & forecasts

2.1.4 Roaming - a billion dollar market

2.2 Mobile statistics

2.2.1 Subscriber growth

2.2.2 Subscriber statistics and forecasts

2.2.3 The effect of taxes on mobile subscription

3. MOBILE COMPETITION AND REGULATIONS

3.1 Introduction: mobile competition

3.1.1 Lack of mobile competition (analysis)

3.2 Mobile Termination Rates (MTR)

3.2.1 Termination charges

3.2.2 MTR in Europe

3.3 Roaming

3.3.1 Introduction

3.3.2 Users frustrated with mobile operators

3.3.3 No optimal routing from GSM MoU

3.3.4 Wireless VOIP coming to the rescue

3.3.5 Interstandard roaming from Vodafone

3.4 Number Portability (NP)

3.4.1 NP is important to competition

3.4.2 Key issues

3.4.3 Portability strategies

3.4.4 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)

4. MOBILE PREPAID

4.1 Prepaid mobile services

4.1.1 Introduction

4.1.2 Prepaid technologies

4.1.3 ARPU comparisons with postpaid (analysis)

4.2 Prepaid market overview

4.2.1 Global prepaid market share

4.2.2 Growth in emerging markets

4.2.3 Prepaid revenues

4.2.4 Mandatory registration

5. MOBILE VIRTUAL NETWORK OPERATORS (MVNOS)

5.1 Definitions

5.2 Marketing considerations

5.3 MVNO developments - analysis

5.3.1 Growth inhibitors

5.3.2 Multimodal services

5.3.3 Mobile Virtual Network Enablers (MVNEs)

5.4 Key MVNO countries

5.4.1 MVNOs in Europe

5.4.2 MVNOs in US

5.5 Content-orientated MVNOs

5.6 MVNO subscribers and revenue

6. FIXED MOBILE CONVERGENCE (FMC)

6.1 Incentives to converge

6.2 FMC versus Fixed-to-Mobile Substitution (FMS)

6.3 Substitution well and truly underway

6.4 Pricing - key to success

6.5 Converging networks

6.6 Next Generation Networks (NGNs)

6.7 Converged fixed/mobile service in the UK

6.7.1 BT Mobile Home Plan

6.7.2 Fusion from BT

6.8 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA)

6.9 Unlicensed mobile Access (UMA)

6.10 Mobile - the missing link

6.10.1 Mobile forced to move into commodity territory

6.10.2 Mobile companies failed to jump the S-curve

6.11 New business models for mobile

6.11.1 Restructuring overdue, but won’t happen soon

6.11.2 Choices have to be made

6.11.3 Vertical integration or permission based?

6.11.4 Customer profiling

7. 2G INFRASTRUCTURE

7.1 CDMA, TDMA

7.1.1 Definition

7.1.2 CDMA and TDMA overview

7.1.3 Market realities

7.1.4 Technologies

7.1.5 CDMA statistics

7.2 GSM

7.2.1 Introduction

7.2.2 GSM statistics and forecasts

7.2.3 GSM developments

7.3 Bluetooth & UWB

7.3.1 Introduction

7.3.2 Analysis

7.3.3 Bluetooth and other technologies

7.3.4 Bluetooth-UWB merger

7.3.5 Market statistics

7.3.6 Bluetooth technology

7.3.7 Application examples

8. 3G INFRASTRUCTURE

8.1 3G and transition to 4G

8.1.1 The future of 3G

8.1.2 The time for 3G has arrived, but no cheering from the operators

8.1.3 The hard realities of the mobile market

8.1.4 Slow start so far

8.1.5 Will 3G survive as a separate business model?

8.1.6 From 3G to 4G mobile

8.1.7 4G will be the end result

8.2 3G statistics and forecasts

8.2.1 The future of 3G - analysis

8.2.2 Definitions

8.2.3 Published 3G statistics and forecasts

8.2.4 2006 report from Deutsche Bank Research

8.2.5 Historical overview - 3G spectrum auctions

9. MOBILE AND WIRELESS SPECTRUM

9.1 Spectrum developments

9.2 Radio spectrum utilisation

9.2.1 Overview

9.2.2 Mobile satellite spectrum

9.3 Spectrum auctions

9.3.1 Developments in the US

9.3.2 Developments in Europe

9.4 Spectrum trading - analysis

10. SATELLITE MOBILE SERVICES

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Major players

10.2.1 Mobile Satellite Services (MSS)

10.3 Satellite broadband turned the corner

10.4 SIA - Overview of the 2005 market

10.5 IPStar - a brief case study

10.6 2006 Statistics and forecasts

10.7 Geostationary, LEO, MEO and HEO satellites

10.7.1 The rise and fall of LEOs and MEOs

10.7.2 First generation GEO satellites

10.8 Direct Broadcasting Services (DBS)

10.8.1 Introduction

10.8.2 Multi-feed satellite dishes

10.9 Co-ordination and regulation

11. REGIONAL OVERVIEW

11.1 North America

11.1.1 USA

11.1.2 Canada

11.2 Latin America

11.2.1 Overview

11.2.2 Mobile technologies

11.3 Europe

11.3.1 Western Europe

11.3.2 Eastern Europe

11.4 Africa/Middle East

11.4.1 Africa

11.4.2 Middle East

11.5 Asia

11.5.1 Overview

11.5.2 Mobile data services

11.5.3 Third Generation (3G) mobile

11.6 Pacific region

11.6.1 Australia

11.6.2 New Zealand

11.6.3 South Pacific

12. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

Exhibit 1 -Top ten countries - new mobile connections - Sept 2005 - Sept 2006

Exhibit 2 - Regulatory regime for mobile interconnect tariffs - 2007

Exhibit 3 - Number portability - key considerations

Exhibit 4 - Countries with mobile numbering plans - January 2007

Exhibit 5 - Growth drivers for prepaid mobiles in emerging markets

Exhibit 6 - Comparative characteristics of an MVNO

Exhibit 7 - Variables that affect MVNO development

Exhibit 8 - UMA examples from the telecoms industry - 2004 - 2007

Exhibit 9 - WorldMode manufacturers - 2006

Exhibit 10 - TD-SCDMA technology

Exhibit 11 - Frequency bands for GSM

Exhibit 12 - Phases of CAMEL standardisation

Exhibit 13 - What is spectrum?

Exhibit 14 - Frequency bands and symbols

Exhibit 15 - International frequency assignment plan - 2110 - 2450MHz bands (excerpts)

Exhibit 16 - Possible bands for future spectrum auctions

Exhibit 17 - Summary of frequency resources for 3G in Europe - 2006

Exhibit 18 - Major non-USA communications satellites* - 2005

Exhibit 19 - WCDMA, 1xRTT, and 1x EVDO subscribers in Asia - September 2006

Table 1 - Average time spent on mobile phones vs fixed in the UK - 2001; 2005

Table 2 - Mobile ARPU for top three US companies - Q2 2006

Table 3 - ARPU of selected US operators and annual change - Q1 2006

Table 4 - Top ten operators with biggest decreases in annual ARPU - worldwide - Q1 2006

Table 5 - Top 15 global operators by change in ARPU - Q4 2005

Table 6 - ARPU for major mobile operators worldwide - Q2 2005

Table 7 - Average mobile ARPU by region and annual change - Q2 2004 - 2005

Table 8 - Mobile ARPU for selected companies - Q2 2004 - 2005

Table 9 - Mobile ARPU - voice and data for selected companies - Q3, 2005

Table 10 - ARPU and proportion of data to total revenue in Europe - September 2005

Table 11 - ARPU and proportion of data to total revenue - September 2005

Table 12 - Mobile subscribers by region - 1993 - 2006

Table 13 - Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual growth - 1993 - 2007

Table 14 - Top countries ranked by mobile penetration - 1998; 2001 - 2005

Table 15 - Regional mobile subscribers - CAGR - 2007 - 2011

Table 16 - Regional market share of new mobile connections - Sept 2005 - Sept 2006

Table 17 - Market share and number of prepaid subscribers worldwide - 2006 - 2010

Table 18 - Top 10 fastest growing operating groups worldwide - 2005

Table 19 - Proportionate subscribers by operator, global top 10 - 2005

Table 20 - Top 20 mobile subscriber countries by region - Q1 2005

Table 21 - Prepaid and total mobile subscribers by operator and annual change - Q2 2005

Table 22 - Global forecasts for mobile - 2005 - 2010

Table 23 - Mobile market share - 1992 - 2005

Table 24 - Mobile Termination Rates (MTR) by region - 2005

Table 25 - Mobile termination rates in Europe - 2006

Table 26 - Percentage of mobile numbers ported in Britain, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, US - 2006

Table 27 - Prepaid market share in Brazil, India, China

Table 28 - Market share and number of prepaid subscribers worldwide - 2006 - 2010

Table 29 - Prepaid market share in various countries - 2004

Table 30 - Top 10 operators by prepaid growth - Q3 2006

Table 31 - Prepaid revenue estimates by region - 2005 - 2008

Table 32 - Number of MVNO subscribers - Virgin Mobile, Telmore - 2006

Table 33 - MVNO subscribers worldwide - 2005; 2006; 2012

Table 34 - MVNO revenue worldwide - 2006; 2012

Table 35 - Fixed versus mobile telephony - 1991 - 2006

Table 36 - World mobile subscribers by technology - June 2006

Table 37 - CDMA worldwide subscribers - 2000 - 2006

Table 38 - Growth of GSM market - 1994; 1997; 1999 - 2001; 2003 - 2006

Table 39 - World mobile subscribers by technology - June 2006

Table 40 - GSM subscribers by region - 2006

Table 41 - Hutchison’s largest 3G markets by subscribers

Table 42 - 3G worldwide subscribers by technology - mid-2006; beginning 2007

Table 43 - 3G subscriber forecasts for all technologies - 2007; 2010

Table 44 - Growth of worldwide 3G subscribers - 2001 - 2007

Table 45 - Regional share of WCDMA subscribers - 2006

Table 46 - 3G subscribers - top three countries - 2003 - 2005

Table 47 - 3G subscribers in Asia-Pacific countries (excl Japan) - 2004; 2009

Table 48 - WCDMA subscribers by country - 2003 - 2004

Table 49 - 3G penetration in the top fivecountries - 2005

Table 50 - 3G spectrum licence cost per capita - 2000 - 2001

Table 51 - Major global fixed satellite service operators - 2006

Table 52 - Number of regional/national satellite operators - 2006

Table 53 - Orbital satellite launches by year - 1996 - 2006

Table 54 - Orbital satellite launches by country - 2006

Table 55 - USA average local monthly bill & average local call length - 1995 - 2006

Table 56 - Canadian wireless revenues - 2005

Table 57 - Forecast subscriber and revenue growth in Canada - 2007 - 2010

Table 58 - Latin America mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration - 1998 - 2006

Table 59 - Latin America mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration by country - September 2006

Table 60 - Latin America subscriber distribution by country - 2005 - 2006

Table 61 - Subscribers, annual change and market share of Latin America operators - Sep 2006

Table 62 - Latin America technology, market share and annual change - 2005 - 2006

Table 63 - Europe voice market (billion minutes) - 2000; 2005; 2010

Table 64 - African mobile subscriber growth and penetration - 1998 - 2006

Table 65 - Mobile subscriber growth in Asia - 1990; 1995; 2000 - 2006

Table 66 - 3G WCDMA subscriber growth in Asia - 2004 - 2006

Table 67 - Australia mobile market subscribers, penetration and annual change - 2000 - 2008

Table 68 - Australia blended ARPU (AU$ per month) by operator - 2003 - 2006

Table 69 - Australia mobile services market revenue per major operator - 2000 - 2008