2007 Australia - Converging Industries

1. TRANSITIONS TO A DIGITAL INDUSTRY

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Transition issues

1.2.1 Horizontal value chains

1.2.2 The value chains are no longer in one direction: from supplier to consumer

1.2.3 Bandwidth demand will continue to go up

1.2.4 ‘Services’ are not a separate layer but are part of every layer

1.2.5 Because of more intelligence in devices the ‘place’ of services is shifting.

1.2.6 Another big sudden jump-transition, in fact two at the same time is to G4 mobile &FttH

1.3 New kinds of innovations

1.4 What may be next after WMesh+fiberman

1.5 Postsciptum

2. TELCO, ISP AND IT INDUSTRY

2.1 The telcos

2.1.1 The role of the telcos

2.1.2 Incumbent telcos and media companies - the cracks are appearing

2.1.3 Financial market a victim of privatisation

2.1.4 Traditional businesses models are done for

2.1.5 Structural reforms are the only way forward

2.1.6 Keep an eye on BT and Internet companies

2.1.7 The Internet is rapidly becoming a national asset

2.2 Internet companies taking over the bat

2.2.1 Telcos operators of Internet economy infrastructure

2.2.2 Internet strategies around core business

2.2.3 Niche marketing for smaller telcos

2.2.4 The Internet business models

2.2.5 New virtual business models

2.2.6 Wholesale to the Internet companies

2.2.7 Spinning off into the Internet economy

2.2.8 IP is upsetting the telcos

2.3 The role of the IT industry

2.3.1 Introduction

2.3.2 The IT industry

2.3.3 Consumer electronics

2.3.4 Software companies

3. INTERNET MEDIA COMPANIES

3.1 Digital Content Industry

3.1.1 Overview of the industry

3.1.2 Google industry leader

3.1.3 Digital media applications

3.1.4 Industry sectors

3.1.5 Industry statistics

3.2 From old to new media

3.3 Google

3.3.1 Innovations keep Google in lead - analysis

3.3.2 Google merger and alliance examples

3.3.3 Google in Australia

3.4 Yahoo!7

3.4.1 Introduction

3.4.2 Yahoo!7 growing strongly

3.4.3 Mobile services

3.4.4 VoIP services

3.4.5 Video services

3.5 PBL - Nine - ninemsn

3.5.1 Analysis of PBL’s global media play

3.5.2 ninemsn - Internet pioneer

3.5.3 ninemsn

3.5.4 Optus and ninemsn

3.5.5 Telstra and Nine

3.5.6 Analysis of the deal part 1

3.5.7 A new deal with Telstra? Part 2

3.6 News Corp and subsidiaries

3.6.1 Not a leader in move to convergence

3.6.2 News moving into content niches

3.6.3 News Digital Media

3.7 Telstra Sensis

3.7.1 Telstra’s three pronged approach

3.7.2 Sensis - online directories

3.7.3 Trading Post

3.7.4 Other online activities

3.7.5 Analysis of Telstra’s plans

3.8 John Fairfax

3.8.1 Digital gateway for local communities

3.8.2 TradeMe

3.8.3 Fairfax-Optus content deal

3.8.4 Fairfax - Unwired content deal

3.8.5 Telcos hampering growth of Internet economy

3.9 eBay Australia

3.10 Ten Network

3.11 Austereo online

4. TRIPLE PLAY MODELS

4.1 What went wrong with triple play?

4.1.1 VoIP and video - hard nuts to crack

4.1.2 TV camera in front of radio programs

4.1.3 FASTWEB is leading the charge, for change

4.1.4 Triple play soon to be forgotten

4.2 Triple play and beyond

4.3 Three distinct markets

4.3.1 Infrastructure market

4.3.2 Content market

4.3.3 Appliances and services market

4.4 Triple play a new pricing model

4.4.1 Lower costs open up access to new models

4.4.2 Triple play pricing

4.5 Killer apps

.5.1 Killer app one: always-on, affordable high-speed Internet access

4.5.2 Killer app two: broadband video

4.5.3 Killer app three: broadband VoIP

4.6 Telco’s arrogant stand on content

4.6.1 Changing market

4.6.2 Triple play makes it impossible for telcos to dominate content

4.6.3 Video services will be delivered by the Internet companies, not the telcos

4.6.4 Tele-presence will be the killer app

4.6.5 Triple play is an access product

4.6.6 Content providers are fighting back

4.6.7 Customer service is not what the industry wants to deliver

4.6.8 Internet companies might take over the telcos

4.7 Triple play in cable TV

4.7.1 Digital upgrades

4.7.2 Global dynamics cable vs telco

4.7.3 Role of cable

4.7.4 The future of infrastructure-based competition

4.8 Triple play pioneers in Australia

4.8.1 TransACT

4.8.2 Optus

4.8.3 Adam Internet

4.8.4 Soul

4.8.5 Skype and other web apps for a flat fee from Hutchison

4.9 Triple play in telecoms

4.9.1 Broadband providers are taking the lead

4.10 Triple play will deliver transparent bills

4.11 The ACCC on triple play monopolies

4.12 The future of triple play

4.12.1 New technologies

4.12.2 FttH - ultimate triple play infrastructure

4.12.3 Media centres in the home

4.12.4 Separation and integration

4.13 Triple play developments around the world

4.13.1 Australia in context with global developments

4.13.2 International benchmarking

5. ANALYSES OF MEDIA REFORMS

5.1 Media reform the aftermath

5.1.1 Developments in late 2006

5.1.2 Media shake-up - the Prime Minister failed to take charge

5.1.3 Minister is embarrassing the new media industry

5.1.4 Prime Minister and not Minister should have end up with egg on his face

5.1.5 Media poker

5.2 Disappointing media reforms

5.2.1 There is nothing in it to spearhead the digital media

5.2.2 There is nothing in it for the customers

5.2.3 Will the old media barons bother

5.2.4 Don’t buy your digital TV yet

5.2.5 Digital TV policy could cost the government $1 billion

5.3 Media reforms - who could get what?

5.3.1 Internet media companies (separate report)

5.3.2 News Corp and Foxtel

5.3.3 PBL/Nine

5.3.4 Seven

5.3.5 Ten

5.3.6 Telstra

5.3.7 Regional operators

5.3.8 Customers

5.4 Analysis of the government media policies - 1996 - 2007

5.4.1 Prelude

5.4.2 Media reform plans

5.4.3 Plans presented in 2006

5.4.4 Lack of cooperation shame on the Australian media

5.4.5 Minister had the right views

5.5 Technology might solve cross-media laws

5.6 More dynamic media market needed

5.6.1 Australia missing out on market dynamics

5.6.2 Converging and supplementing media services

5.7 Customer demand driving changes

5.7.1 User experience pushing up demand

5.7.2 Plasma screens

5.7.3 DVRs

5.8 Structural changes are needed

5.8.1 Separation and integration

5.8.2 Structural separation is inevitable

6. NET NEUTRALITY ANALYSIS

6.1 Introduction

6.1.1 Commercial expansion of the Internet

6.2 Network neutrality - a global issue

6.3 Carriers in competition with content providers

6.4 Developments in the USA

6.4.1 Competition answer to net neutrality threat

6.4.2 In the global context

6.4.3 Net neutrality - the Americans still don’t get it

6.5 No-one owns the Internet

7. HOME MEDIA CENTRES

7.1 Market overview

7.2 Broadband revives the concept

7.3 Key players

7.3.1 Viiv from Intel

7.3.2 Microsoft’s Media Centre

7.4 Trialing Viiv - mid 2006

7.5 Case study Paul’s home

7.5.1 The difference speeds makes

7.5.2 Budde family technology review

7.5.3 Saving money with VoIP

7.5.4 The Sebastian link

7.5.5 Movie downloads

7.5.6 Home movies

7.5.7 Internet radio

7.5.8 Photo library

7.5.9 Still a long way to go…

7.6 Market Analysis

7.6.1 Catalyst for new business opportunities

7.6.2 Stragglers will be left behind

7.6.3 Overhaul of the lounge room

7.6.4 Content providers are coming to the party

7.7 Television advertising

7.8 Forecasts

8. HOME NETWORKS

8.1 Statistics and forecasts

8.1.1 Slow but steady growth throughout 2007

8.1.2 IDC report mid-2006

8.1.3 Connected home technologies

8.1.4 Home networking market forecast - IDC

8.2 Home networking

8.2.1 Broadband-enabled connected homes

8.2.2 Home automation market

8.2.3 Smart Wired House - survey findings

8.2.4 Home wireless market

8.3 W Home (BigAir)

8.3.1 Overview

8.3.2 Customer base

8.3.3 Powerline broadband

8.3.4 Examination of W Home’s business model

8.4 Telstra gearing up to offer digital home gateway

8.5 HomePlug

8.5.1 Introduction

8.5.2 Every socket a telco outlet

8.5.3 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM)

8.5.4 56 bit DES

8.5.5 Interoperability

8.5.6 Reach - with and beyond each home

8.5.7 HomePlug Powerline Alliance

9. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

Exhibit 1 - Tillevision Model for ICT Infrastructure

Exhibit 2 - Tillevision Model

Exhibit 3 - Conjecture Subsidiarty

Exhibit 4 - Fractal repetition of the Internet paradigm

Exhibit 5 - Rural Tellet mobile voice-mail devices

Exhibit 6 - Telecommunication convergence

Exhibit 7 - Media centre devices

Exhibit 8 - Intermix Media and MySpace

Exhibit 9 - The key issues still remain the same

Exhibit 10 - Media diversity

Exhibit 11 - Implications of ending net neutrality

Exhibit 12 - Multi-dwelling units

Table 1 - Media advertising expenditure - 2002 - 2005

Table 2 - Australia - triple play pricing - 2005

Table 3 - Percentage of operators globally offering unlimited nationwide fixed-line calls - 2005

Table 4 - Triple play pricing with per-minute call charges - 2005

Table 5 - Double play pricing (voice and data) with per-minute call charges - 2005

Table 6 - Bit caps and corresponding service limits from off-network sources - 2005

Table 7 - Media centre penetration forecasts Australia - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 8 - Home network penetration of households - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 9 - Australian multi dwelling units (100+) - 2003 - 2008

Table 10 - Revenue forecasts - Australian home automation market - 2003 - 2008