2007 Australia - Telecoms Analyses and Forecasts

• The year ahead - 2008
• Revenue forecasts and market share analysis
• Analysis of the fixed market - infrastructure and applications ands key services
• Analysis of competition issues, regulatory environment and government policies
• Analysis of mobile communications, data and wireless broadband developments
• Analysis of the digital media market

1. 2008 - THE YEAR AHEAD

1.1 Are you ready for 2008?

1.2 Mexican stand-off

1.3 Structural changes

1.4 VoIP

1.5 IPTV

1.6 WiMAX

1.7 Corporate markets

1.8 Industry environment

1.9 Telstra

1.10 The rest of the industry

1.11 The market moving towards 2008

1.11.1 Access to telecoms services

1.11.2 Rapidly changing voice market

1.11.3 Good news telco stories

1.11.4 Regional telecommunications

1.11.5 Digital media

1.12 Customer service

2. REVENUE, FORECASTS & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS

2.1 Total market

2.1.1 By major provider

2.1.2 By service

2.2 Mobile market

2.3 2nd tier market

2.4 Data and broadband market

3. TELECOMMUNICATIONS - REVENUE FORECASTS 2007 - 2015

3.1 By markets

3.2 By products

3.2.1 Overall market

3.2.2 Access market

3.2.3 Voice market

3.2.4 Content

3.3 By industry

3.4 Where to go from here?

4. COMPETITION ISSUES

4.1 Let the ACCC do its job

4.2 Yet another panel to investigate telecoms

4.3 Minister in the firing line

4.4 Precarious state of affairs

4.4.1 Good old Aussie pork-barrelling

4.4.2 New Telstra-Optus duopoly

4.4.3 No innovations and competition

4.4.4 Short-term political gains

4.4.5 Why do we need broadband?

4.5 At last - the T4 campaign

4.5.1 The campaign

4.5.2 Analysis and comments

4.6 Back to the Dark Ages

4.7 We are losing our telco focus

4.8 ACCC needs to facilitate NGN industry workgroup

5. STRUCTURAL SEPARATION

5.1 Structural separation and the private equity market

5.1.1 The great separation debate

5.1.2 The tsunami of structural change (analysis)

5.1.3 Private equity interests

5.2 A defiant Telstra

5.2.1 Key issues - those in favour

5.2.2 Those against - Telstra

5.2.3 Opportunities for others

6. INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSES

6.1 The year 2007

6.1.1 Strategic selection of infrastructure

6.1.2 Telstra on board re national interest issue

6.1.3 IT applications driving broadband infrastructure

6.1.4 Infrastructure choices

6.1.5 Telstra’s FttN Plans

6.1.6 Trujillo: Australia, you won’t get fibre

6.1.7 Regional infrastructure

6.1.8 Market analysis

6.1.9 Wireless broadband opportunities

6.1.10 Utilities expanding into regional areas

6.2 NGN market analyses

6.2.1 Analysis of Telstra’s NGN progress

6.2.2 NGN in action

6.2.3 It’s worthwhile fighting for open networks

6.2.4 Internet economy requires NGNs - now

6.3 Broadband - infrastructure analysis

6.3.1 Australia’s new broadband landscape

6.3.2 Technology issues

6.3.3 What is broadband and why is it needed?

6.3.4 True broadband

6.3.5 Mexican stand-off on broadband infrastructure

6.3.6 Boom and bust cycle in local access

6.3.7 Broadband deteriorating in regional Australia

6.3.8 Open networks needed for broadband services

6.3.9 Incumbents are running behind

6.3.10 Analysis of other infrastructure initiatives

6.3.11 Copper is still very much alive

6.3.12 Proactive communities

7. VOIP MARKET

7.1 Statistical overview

7.1.1 VoIP Boom delayed forecasts

7.1.2 ISPs providing VoIP services

7.1.3 Australian businesses not enthusiastically embracing VoIP - June 2007

7.1.4 VoIP will not be effective without upgraded broadband

7.1.5 The ACCC on VoIP

7.1.6 ISPs push into voice market

7.1.7 Switch to VoIP - survey 2006

7.1.8 Survey reveals businesses are unprepared for VoIP security threats

7.1.9 VoIP good growth but no money

7.1.10 VoIP can slash phone bills by $500

7.1.11 Managed network services

7.1.12 Business distribution of Australian VoIP market

7.2 Market overview

7.2.1 The future of VoIP lies in videoconferencing

7.2.2 IT and telecoms no happy convergence

7.3 Analyses

7.3.1 Click-to-talk

7.3.2 VoIP quality deteriorating, but who cares? We do!

7.3.3 Is there a strategy behind Telstra’s bucket plan?

7.3.4 VoIP over-hyped

7.3.5 VoIP - a case of evolution, rather than revolution

7.3.6 Major battleground: SME market

8. INTERNET MARKET AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

8.1 The ISP market - mid-2007

8.1.1 Consolidation only half finished

8.1.2 Aggressive competition

8.1.3 Still very little value-added

8.1.4 More consolidation coming

8.1.5 Dial-up Internet

8.2 Transition to BSP for 60%

8.3 Future directions

8.4 Regional activities

9. BROADBAND MARKET

9.1 New broadband infrastructure initiatives

9.1.1 Metropolitan fibre network

9.1.2 Regional broadband competition

9.2 Regions can be commercially broadbanded

9.3 Bringing some sanity into the broadband debate

9.4 OECD vindicated re its broadband data

9.5 Where are the broadband devices?

9.6 Broadband: Australia is on the right track

9.7 Labor’s broadband plan

9.8 Low demand density for broadband services

9.9 Can we stop the broadband train crash?

9.10 Telstra moving towards VDSL

9.11 Broadband Blueprint?

9.11.1 Implementation before blue printing

9.11.2 States discussed blueprint

10. MOBILE MARKET ANALYSIS

10.1 Industry trends & analysis 2007

10.1.1 The mobile market - In 2007

10.1.2 Don’t believe the mobile hype

10.1.3 Mobile industry heading up a dead-end street

10.2 The 3G market

10.2.1 Statistical overview

10.2.2 The tough new world of 3G

10.2.3 Market Analyses

10.2.4 Network sharing and cost cutting

10.2.5 Analysis of Australia’s first 3G launch

10.2.6 Business modelling

11. MOBILE DATA MARKET

11.1 Forecasts

11.1.1 Mobile marketing remains a furphy

11.1.2 The market in 2007

11.2 Market issues

11.2.1 From WiMAX and 3G to 4G Mobile

11.2.2 Mobile TV

11.2.3 Mobile content - a market still kept hostage

12. WIRELESS BROADBAND

12.1 Analysis

12.1.1 Key years for wireless broadband: 2007/2008

12.1.2 Room for free wireless broadband

12.1.3 Wireless broadband providers on the rise

12.1.4 Competition analysis - Uwired and PBA versus Telstra

12.2 Statistics and forecasts

12.2.1 Market statistics

12.2.2 Market forecasts

13. DIGITAL MEDIA MARKET

13.1 We should ride the economic digital wave

13.2 The rise and rise of digital media

13.3 Convergence at work

13.4 Latest developments

13.4.1 Broadband and TV - not converging, but complementary

13.4.2 Video-on-Demand (VoD) - missed the boat

13.4.3 Every site needs its own YouTube

13.5 Developing markets

13.5.1 User Generated Content (UGC)

13.5.2 Social networking

13.6 Telcos and media versus Googles

14. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1 - Key revenue trends - period to 2015

Exhibit 2 - Key regulatory and policy issues, as BuddeComm sees them

Exhibit 3 - Definition of a utility

Exhibit 4 - Verizon versus Skype

Exhibit 5 - The role of voice

Exhibit 6 - Some application bit rates

Exhibit 7 - Access technologies

Exhibit 8 - What does it mean? (DSL, 1Gb/s, DWDM transmission speeds)

Exhibit 9 - Overview of physical distribution networks for high-speed services

Exhibit 10 - Infrastructure - people power

Exhibit 11 - BuddeComm VoIP quality survey

Exhibit 12 - Paul Budde’s case study from 2G to Next G

Exhibit 13 - Why mobile marketing won’t work

Exhibit 14 - Examples of social networking websites - 2006

List of Tables

Table 1 - Total telecoms service wholesale revenue by major provider - 2004 - 2008

Table 2 - Total telecoms service wholesale annual growth by major provider - 2004 - 2008

Table 3 - Total telecoms service wholesale market shares by major provider - 2004 - 2008

Table 4 - Total telecoms market - retail revenue by service - 2004 - 2008

Table 5 - Total telecoms market - annual retail growth by service - 2004 - 2008

Table 6 - Total telecoms market - retail market share by service - 2004 - 2008

Table 7 - Revenue - mobile services market per major operator - 2004 - 2008*

Table 8 - Annual growth - mobile services market per major operator - 2004 - 2008*

Table 9 - Market share (%) by carrier - 2004 - 2007*

Table 10 - Average ARPU per month across all operators and annual change - 2004 - 2008

Table 11 - Second tier retail providers - voice, data & mobile - revenue - 2002 - 2007*

Table 12 - Second tier retail providers - voice, data & mobile - annual growth - 2003 - 2007*

Table 13 - Second tier retail providers - voice, data & mobile - market share - 2002 - 2007*

Table 14 - Data market share by provider - 2004 - 2007*

Table 15 - Dial-up, ADSL and cable subscribers - top ten market share - 2001 - 2006

Table 16 - Telecommunications services revenue by market - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 17 - Telecommunications services revenue % by market - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 18 - Telecommunications services revenue by product - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 19 - Telecommunications services revenue % by product - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 20 - ‘Internet economy’ telco revenue - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 21 - ‘Internet economy’ telco - percentage of revenue - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 22 - ‘Internet economy’ telco revenue - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 23 - Access % of total telecoms spend - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 24 - Content/advertising % total telecoms spend - 2000; 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 25 - Telecommunications services revenue by industry group - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 26 - Telecommunications services revenue % by industry group - 2005; 2007; 2010; 2015

Table 27 - Skype users - Australia - 2004 - 2008

Table 28 - Paid VoIP users Australia - 2004 - 2010

Table 29 - Number of voice service providers in Australia by type of provider - June 2007

Table 30 - ISPs providing VoIP as part of bundled service offers by size of ISP - September 2006

Table 31 - Main business distribution Australian VoIP market - July 2006

Table 32 - Residential broadband ARPU and annual change - 2004 - 2007

Table 33 - Residential dial-up Internet ARPU and annual change - 2004 - 2007

Table 34 - Number of Australian households and technology penetration - 2007

Table 35 - Broadband component of Internet households - 2005 - 2010; 2015

Table 36 - 3G network subscribers - 2003 - 2007

Table 37 - 2G, 3G ARPU per month comparison - 2006

Table 38 - Number of ISPs by broadband service offered - 2006

Table 39 - Subscriber statistics by operator - late 2006

Table 40 - Forecast wireless penetration as % of fixed broadband - 2005; 2010; 2015