2008 New Zealand - Mobile & Broadband Overview and Analysis

• Mobile industry;
• Fixed and wireless broadband;
• Internet and ISP markets;
• Broadcasting market;
• Digital Media and Convergence.

1. MARKET OVERVIEW

1.1 Mobile market

1.1.1 Market overview, statistics and analysis

1.1.2 Major players

1.2 Broadband, Internet and data market

1.2.1 Fixed broadband market

1.2.2 Broadband and dial-up forecasts to 2012

1.2.3 Wireless broadband

1.2.4 Internet and ISP market

1.2.5 Data market

1.3 Digital media and convergence

1.4 Broadcasting

2. MARKET AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

2.1 The dawn of a new era

2.2 Progress at the expense of competition - November 2007

2.2.1 Shortsighted industry

2.2.2 Telecom fibre plans are no surprise

2.2.3 No progress in wholesale

2.2.4 Broadband prices double that of other countries

2.2.5 New endless regulatory debates?

2.3 Will the country catch up in broadband?

2.4 The industry will have to wait a bit longer

2.5 Infrastructure analysis

2.5.1 The future of WiMAX in New Zealand

2.5.2 HSPA and other mobile data developments

2.5.3 Web 2.0

2.6 Mobile market analysis

2.6.1 Vodafone unchallenged market leader in mobile

2.6.2 Econet re-emerged as NZ telecommunications

2.6.3 TelstraClear niche market player

2.6.4 Data opportunities

2.6.5 Not much action until 2010-2012

2.6.6 Regulator needs to keep the duopoly honest

3. KEY STATISTICS

4. MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS

4.1 Local market overview and analysis

4.2 Statistical overview

4.2.1 Subscriber and operating statistics

4.2.2 Revenue statistics

4.2.3 Telecom and Vodafone - comparison of 3G offerings and retail outlets

4.3 Market surveys

4.3.1 Commerce Commission study ranks New Zealand poorly in mobile pricing

4.4 Major mobile operators

4.4.1 Telecom Mobile

4.4.2 Vodafone New Zealand

4.4.3 TelstraClear

4.4.4 New Zealand Communications Ltd (formerly Econet)

4.5 Mobile market analysis - late 2007

4.5.1 Vodafone unchallenged market leader in mobile

4.5.2 Econet re-emerged as NZ telecommunications

4.5.3 TelstraClear niche market player

4.5.4 Data opportunities

4.5.5 Not much action until 2010-2012

4.5.6 Regulator needs to keep the duopoly honest

4.5.7 HSPA and other mobile data developments

4.6 Can we sort out the mobile mess in New Zealand?

4.7 Mobile operators continue to hold onto lucrative empires

4.8 HSPA threat to SMS

4.9 Slow progress in fixed-mobile convergence

4.10 Mobile merging with wireless

4.11 HSPA a reality now, WiMAX still a few years away

4.12 Vodafone predicts a WiMAX revolution - global analysis

4.13 Spectrum market and regulatory overview

4.13.1 Management Rights Regime (MRR)

4.13.2 Impact of new technologies on spectrum usage

4.13.3 Licensed versus unlicensed spectrum

4.14 The Radiocommunications Act 1989

4.15 Market developments in 2007

4.15.1 Cellular spectrum auctions - April 2007

4.16 Market developments in 2006

4.16.1 New Zealand cellular spectrum review - July 2006

4.17 Expansion of spectrum allocation for wireless broadband

4.17.1 Update - July 2006

4.17.2 Update - November 2006

4.17.3 Update - April 2007

4.17.4 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz spectrum auction for December 2007

4.17.5 Applications open for NZ 3.5GHz spectrum - November 2007

4.18 Unlicensed spectrum

4.19 Spectrum trading

4.20 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)

4.20.1 Overview

4.20.2 New Zealand retailer explores implementation of RFID

5. BROADBAND, INTERNET AND ISP MARKET

5.1 Market overview

5.1.1 Regulatory developments and Telecom’s cabinetisation plan

5.2 Market analysis

5.3 Broadband statistics

5.3.1 Local statistics

5.3.2 Broadband and dial-up forecasts to 2012

5.4 Market surveys

5.4.1 OECD broadband survey

5.5 Broadband service providers

5.5.1 CallPlus

5.5.2 CityLink

5.5.3 ICONZ

5.5.4 ihug

5.5.5 Maxnet

5.5.6 Telecom

5.5.7 TelstraClear

5.5.8 Wired Country

5.5.9 Woosh Wireless

5.5.10 Orcon Internet

5.6 Technologies and solutions

5.7 Regional broadband initiatives

5.7.1 Introduction

5.7.2 Government’s Digital Strategy and Broadband Challenge initiative

5.7.3 West Coast developments

5.7.4 Project Probe

5.7.5 E-regions

5.8 Wireless broadband

5.8.1 Market overview

5.8.2 WiFi

5.8.3 WiMAX

5.8.4 Satellite

5.8.5 Major players

5.9 Internet and ISP market

5.9.1 Market overview and statistics

5.9.2 Market trends and analysis

5.9.3 Market surveys

5.9.4 Internet auctioning

5.9.5 Internet mobile banking

5.9.6 E-business

6. CONVERGENCE - TRIPLE PLAY MODELS

6.1 Trends in convergence and digital media

6.1.1 Telecoms access models undergo fundamental changes

6.1.2 Digital media will be the key market driver in the telco market

6.1.3 The rise of content based services

6.1.4 E-health

6.2 Analysis - New Zealand must capitalise on digital media opportunities

6.2.1 Where are the leaders?

6.2.2 Digital media event

6.2.3 Savings worth $10 billion

6.3 Triple play and quadruple play services in New Zealand

6.3.1 Market overview

6.3.2 Telecom’s Next Generation Network (NGN)

6.3.3 TelstraClear

6.3.4 Vodafone /ihug

6.4 Analysis - what went wrong with triple play?

6.4.1 VoIP and video - hard nuts to crack

6.4.2 TV camera in front of radio programs

6.4.3 FASTWEB is leading the charge, for change

6.4.4 Triple play soon to be forgotten

6.5 Converging digital media services by application

6.5.1 Home Media Centres

6.5.2 Broadband - home networks

6.5.3 Video-on-Demand (VoD)

6.5.4 DVRs

6.5.5 Flat screen TVs

6.5.6 IPTV (DSL TV)

6.5.7 Mobile TV

6.5.8 Internet portals and applications

6.6 Analysis - Home Media Centres

6.6.1 Catalyst for new business opportunities

6.6.2 Stragglers will be left behind

6.6.3 Overhaul of the lounge room

6.6.4 Content providers are coming to the party

6.6.5 Television advertising

6.7 Analysis - e-Health - killer app on true broadband

6.7.1 Broadband essential to maintain public health system

6.7.2 Aged care services at home

6.7.3 Social networking through video cams

6.7.4 Public education and public debate needs to start now

6.7.5 Online patient record systems

6.7.6 Digital healthcare appointment system

6.7.7 Video consultation and monitoring

6.7.8 There simply is no alternative to e-health

7. BROADCASTING

7.1 Market overview

7.2 Free-to-air TV

7.2.1 Television New Zealand (TVNZ)

7.2.2 MediaWorks NZ

7.2.3 Prime Television New Zealand

7.2.4 Totaliser Agency Board (TAB)

7.3 Digital FTA TV

7.3.1 State of play

7.3.2 Freeview (FTA digital TV service)

7.3.3 Kordia’s digital TV rollout

7.4 Pay and cable TV (digital)

7.4.1 Market overview

7.4.2 Sky Network Television

7.4.3 TelstraClear Saturn

7.4.4 Ethnic TV company to launch digital subscriber TV

7.4.5 Analysis of the pay TV market

7.5 IPTV

7.6 Video-over-IP broadcasting

7.7 Digital radio

7.7.1 Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)

7.8 DVB-T trials

8. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1 - Comparison of New Zealand’s mobile networks

Exhibit 2 - Examples of Web 2.0 developments

Exhibit 3 - Comparison of New Zealand’s mobile networks

Exhibit 4 - Telecom and Vodafone - number of retail outlets by distributor - 2006

Exhibit 5 - Vodafone HSDPA rollout timeframe & corresponding download speeds - 2006 - 2007

Exhibit 6 - Interesting spectrum developments

Exhibit 7 - New Zealand rankings in global OECD broadband survey - June 2007

Exhibit 8 - Telecom New Zealand’s plan for convergence

Exhibit 9 - Advantages of e-Health

Exhibit 10 - Sky Network Television at a glance

List of Tables

Table 1 - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration - 1995 - 2009

Table 2 - Mobile subscribers per operator- 2001 - 2009

Table 3 - Annual change in mobile subscribers per operator - 2002 - 2009

Table 4 - Broadband & dial-up residential subscribers and penetration - 2003 - 2007

Table 5 - Broadband subscribers by major provider - wireless and fixed-line access - 2005 - 2007

Table 6 - Estimated number of ISPs - 1995 - 2008

Table 7 - Data market revenue - broadband, dial-up and other data - 2004 - 2009

Table 8 - Data market revenue growth - broadband, dial-up and other data - 2005 - 2009

Table 9 - Broadcasting statistics - pay TV and FTA TV - 2007

Table 10 - Country statistics - 2007

Table 11 - Telecom revenue statistics - 2007 - 2009

Table 12 - Telephone network statistics - 2007

Table 13 - Internet provider statistics - 2007

Table 14 - Internet user statistics - June 2007

Table 15 - Broadband statistics - June 2007

Table 16 - Mobile statistics - June 2007

Table 17 - Broadcasting statistics - 2007

Table 18 - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration - 1995 - 2009

Table 19 - Mobile subscribers per operator- 2001 - 2009

Table 20 - Mobile subscribers per operator and network - 2001 - 2006

Table 21 - Annual change in mobile subscribers per operator - 2002 - 2009

Table 22 - Market share of mobile subscribers per operator - 1995 - 2009

Table 23 - Percentage of prepaid customers per operator - 2005 - 2007

Table 24 - 3G subscribers by operator- 2006

Table 25 - Telecom Mobile total annual call minutes and annual change - 2005 - 2007

Table 26 - Mobile market revenues by operator - 1997 - 2009

Table 27 - Mobile market revenue growth by operator - 1998 - 2009

Table 28 - Mobile market revenue market share by operator - 1997 - 2009

Table 29 - Monthly ARPU ($) per operator* - 2004 - 2007

Table 30 - Annual change in monthly total ARPU ($) per operator - 2005 - 2007

Table 31 - Mobile low user basket - November 2006

Table 32 - Mobile medium user basket - November 2006

Table 33 - Mobile high user basket - November 2006

Table 34 - Vodafone 2G and 3G network cell sites - October 2006

Table 35 - Broadband subscribers by major provider- wireless and fixed-line access - 2005 - 2007

Table 36 - Total residential broadband subscribers by major provider - 2003 - 2007

Table 37 - Annual growth of residential broadband subscribers by major provider - 2004 - 2007

Table 38 - Percentage breakdown of residential subscribers per provider - 2004 - 2007

Table 39 - Telecom NZ retail and wholesale broadband subscribers - 1999 - 2007

Table 40 - Telecom NZ broadband ADSL subscribers (residential, business) and (wholesale, retail) and annual change - 2005 - 2007

Table 41 - Broadband subscribers by major provider- wireless and fixed-line access - 2003 - 2005

Table 42 - Broadband penetration in New Zealand by access technology - 2005 - 2006

Table 43 - Broadband subscribers - wireless and fixed-line access - 2003 - 2005

Table 44 - Forecast broadband & dial-up residential subscriber forecasts - weaker market growth scenario - 2003 - 2012

Table 45 - Forecast broadband & dial-up residential subscriber forecasts - stronger market growth scenario - 2003 - 2012

Table 46 - Woosh customer base - 2005 - 2007

Table 47 - Woosh revenue and annual change - 2004 - 2006

Table 48 - Woosh profit/(loss) - 2004 - 2006

Table 49 - Estimated number of ISPs - 1995 - 2008

Table 50 - ISP revenue estimates and annual change - 2002 - 2009

Table 51 - Broadband subscribers by major provider - wireless and fixed-line access - 2005 - 2007

Table 52 - Broadband & dial-up residential subscribers and penetration - 2003 - 2007

Table 53 - Dial-up subscribers per major ISP (historical) - 2002 - 2006

Table 54 - Telecom NZ Internet dial-up subscribers, hours and annual change - 2006 - 2007

Table 55 - Number of subscribers by type of subscriber and annual change - Sept 2006 - March 2007

Table 56 - Broadband subscribers - cable and DSL - March 2007

Table 57 - Size of ISPs by percentile range - 2005 - 2007

Table 58 - EIU e-readiness rankings - 2006 - 2007

Table 59 - Broadcasting statistics - pay TV and FTA TV - 2007

Table 60 - Pay TV broadcasting statistics - June 2007

Table 61 - Total UHF, DBS & other subscribers - 2004 - 2007

Table 62 - Subscriber growth & annual change - 1993 - 2008

Table 63 - Average monthly revenue per residential subscriber and annual change - 2005 - 2007

Table 64 - Revenue overview and percentage change - 1997 - 2008

Table 65 - Group revenue overview and annual change - 2005 - 2006