2008 Global Mobile Communications - Statistics, Trends and Forecasts

• The future of the mobile industry;
• Worldwide and regional mobile subscriber statistics;
• Worldwide mobile ARPU and revenue;
• Overview of worldwide call charges;
• Mobile prepaid sector;
• MVNO market;
• Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC);
• Mobile infrastructure;
• Termination rates, Roaming, Mobile Number Portability (MNP);
• Mobile spectrum developments;
• Regional overview.

1. Global Mobile Market Overview

1.1 Mobile market analysis

1.1.1 Introduction

1.1.2 The start of the mobile revolution?

1.1.3 Data is the future

1.1.4 All roads lead to 4G

1.2 Mobile subscriber statistics

1.2.1 Subscriber growth

1.2.2 2007-2008 published statistics and forecasts

1.2.3 The effect of taxes on mobile subscription

1.3 Mobile revenue, ARPU and call charges

1.3.1 Mobile usage and call charges overview

1.3.2 Overview of global ARPU developments

1.3.3 Mobile ARPU statistics & forecasts

1.3.4 Mobile revenue growth and CAPEX forecast

1.4 Mobile prepaid

1.4.1 Prepaid mobile services

1.4.2 Prepaid trends and developments

1.4.3 Prepaid mobile statistics and forecasts

1.4.4 Mandatory registration

2. Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)

2.1 MVNO market in 2008

2.1.1 Definitions

2.1.2 Marketing considerations

2.1.3 MVNO developments - analysis

2.1.4 Key MVNO countries

2.1.5 Some MVNOs struggle to find value

2.1.6 Content-orientated MVNOs

2.1.7 MVNO subscribers and revenue

3. Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC)

3.1 FMC developments

3.1.1 Fixed-mobile convergence

3.1.2 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA)

3.1.3 FMC equipment market

3.1.4 IP convergence the future anyway - analysis

3.1.5 Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)

3.1.6 Mobile - the missing link

3.1.7 New business models for mobile

4. Mobile Infrastructure

4.1 2G: CDMA, TDMA

4.1.1 Introduction

4.1.2 2G infrastructure

4.1.3 Moving into 3G

4.1.4 Other developments

4.1.5 Statistics and forecasts - CDMA technologies

4.2 2G: GSM

4.2.1 Introduction

4.2.2 GSM features and developments

4.3 3G and transition to 4G

4.3.1 The time for 3G has arrived, but no cheering from the operators

4.3.2 Published 3G statistics and forecasts

4.3.3 Analysis - hard realities of the mobile market

4.3.4 Brief case study - Hutchison 3

4.3.5 Analysis - 3G, still a way to go

4.3.6 Conclusion - the reality of 3G and mobile data

4.4 Bluetooth and UWB

4.4.1 Introduction: Bluetooth

4.4.2 Wibree

4.4.3 Ultra-Wideband UWB))

4.4.4 Bluetooth-UWB merger

4.4.5 Growth of Bluetooth - statistics & forecasts

4.4.6 Bluetooth technology

4.4.7 Application examples

4.4.8 Other developments

4.5 Mobile satellite networks

5. Mobile Competition and Regulations

5.1 Termination rates, roaming, Mobile Number Portability (MNP)

5.1.1 Introduction: mobile competition

5.1.2 Mobile Termination Rates (MTR)

5.1.3 Roaming

5.1.4 Number Portability (NP)

6. Mobile and Wireless Spectrum

6.1 Spectrum and the mobile market

6.1.1 Spectrum developments

6.1.2 Radio spectrum utilisation

6.1.3 Spectrum auctions

6.1.4 Developments in the US

6.1.5 Developments in Europe

6.1.6 Spectrum trading - analysis

7. Regional Overviews

7.1 North America

7.1.1 USA

7.1.2 Canada

7.2 Latin America

7.2.1 Mobile trends

7.2.2 Mobile statistics

7.2.3 Mobile forecasts

7.2.4 Mobile technologies

7.3 Europe

7.3.1 Overview

7.3.2 Investment forecasts

7.3.3 Revenue forecasts

7.3.4 Mobile statistics

7.3.5 Technology trends

7.4 Africa/Middle East

7.4.1 Africa

7.4.2 Middle East

7.5 Asia

7.5.1 Market overview

7.5.2 Regional characteristics

7.5.3 China and India

7.5.4 Growth drivers

7.5.5 Mobile data services

7.5.6 Third Generation (3G)

7.6 Pacific Region

7.6.1 Australia

7.6.2 New Zealand

7.6.3 South Pacific

7.6.4 Mobile market overview

8. Glossary of Abbreviations

List of Tables

Table 1 - Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change - 1993 - 2008

Table 2 - Mobile subscribers by region - 1993 - 2007

Table 3 - Top 20 countries ranked by mobile penetration - 2004 - 2005; 2007

Table 4 - Worldwide mobile subscribers by technology - 2007; 2011

Table 5 - Worldwide mobile subscribers by technology - Q1 2007

Table 6 - Worldwide mobile phone penetration - 2008; 2011

Table 7 - Regional mobile subscribers’ CAGR - 2007 - 2011

Table 8 - Average time spent on mobile phones in the UK versus fixed - 2001; 2005

Table 9 - Average total daily use of fixed telephone in the UK versus mobile - 2006

Table 10 - Comparison charges for services basket in Finland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Denmark, France and Great Britain - March 2007

Table 11 - Western Europe ARPU: monthly voice, non-voice & total mobile - 2006; 2012

Table 12 - Top 10 North American operators by ARPU - Q3 2007

Table 13 - Mobile ARPU for top 3 US companies - Q2 2006

Table 14 - Approximate monthly mobile ARPU of top 5 carriers and bottom 5 carriers worldwide - Q3 2006

Table 15 - Monthly mobile ARPU of selected US operators - Q1 2006

Table 16 - Top 10 operators worldwide with biggest decreases in annual mobile ARPU - Q1 2006

Table 17 - Worldwide mobile revenue and CAPEX - 2012

Table 18 - Prepaid market share in selected developing markets - 2008

Table 19 - Number of prepaid subscribers worldwide - 2006 - 2007

Table 20 - Top 10 operators by prepaid growth - Q3 2007

Table 21 - Top 10 operators by prepaid growth - Q3 2006

Table 22 - Prepaid penetration by region- 2006

Table 23 - Prepaid revenue estimates by region - 2005 - 2008

Table 24 - Virgin Mobile and Telmore MVNO subscribers - 2006

Table 25 - MVNO subscribers worldwide - 2005 - 2006; 2012

Table 26 - MVNO revenue worldwide - 2006; 2012

Table 27 - Mobile market share versus fixed - 1992 - 2003; 2006 - 2007

Table 28 - Worldwide subscribers - CDMA technologies - 2001 - 2007

Table 29 -CDMA subscribers versus other technologies - Q1 2007

Table 30 - Growth of GSM market - 1994; 1997; 1999 - 2001; 2003 - 2007

Table 31 - GSM technology subscribers by region - 2006 - 2007

Table 32 - Market share of 3G technologies - 2012

Table 33 - 3G worldwide subscribers by technology - 2006 - 2007

Table 34 - 3G subscriber forecasts (all technologies) - 2007; 2010

Table 35 - Growth of worldwide 3G subscribers - 2001 - 2007

Table 36 - Regional share of WCDMA subscribers - 2006

Table 37 - 3G spectrum licence cost per capita - 2000 - 2001

Table 38 - 3G infrastructure CAPEX - 2001 - 2006

Table 39 - Examples of Hutchison subscribers in 3G markets - 2005 - 2006

Table 40 - UWB-enabled devices in use - 2007; 2011

Table 41 - Installed base of Bluetooth devices worldwide - 2005; 2007; 2012

Table 42 - Wholesale revenues for MSS operators with satellites in orbit - 2005 - 2007

Table 43 - Mobile market share versus fixed - 1992 - 2003; 2006 - 2007

Table 44 - Historical Mobile Termination Rates (MTR) by Region - 2005

Table 45 - EU average mobile termination charges - 2004 - 2006

Table 46 - Average call charges abroad by region - 2007

Table 47 - European roaming charges - 2007 - 2009

Table 48 - Worldwide roaming revenue - 2006; 2011

Table 49 - Percentage of mobile numbers ported in selected countries - 2006

Table 50 - Overview of wireless subscribers in the USA - January 2008

Table 51 - Wireless subscribers in Canada - 1997 - 2007

Table 52 - Mobile subscribers and penetration in Latin America - 1998 - 2007

Table 53 - Mobile subscribers and penetration in Latin American countries - September 2007

Table 54 - Subscriber distribution in selected Latin American countries - 2005 - 2007

Table 55 - Forecast mobile subscriber penetration - weaker growth scenario in selected Latin American countries - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 56 - Forecast mobile subscriber penetration - stronger growth scenario in selected Latin American countries - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 57 - Market share of mobile technologies in Latin America - 2006 - 2007

Table 58 - Annualised European voice and data market growth - 2007

Table 59 - Voice market Europe - 2000; 2005; 2010

Table 60 - GSM price basket, selected European countries - 2006 - 2007

Table 61 - Voice and total mobile ARPU in Western Europe - 2006; 2012

Table 62 - Western Europe 3G subscribers - 2005 - 2008; 2010

Table 63 - Western Europe GSM subscribers - 1997 - 2008

Table 64 - Top 20 European nations by subscribers - Sept 2007

Table 65 - European mobile subscribers and penetration - 1997 - 2008

Table 66 - Top 10 European nations by penetration - 2005 - 2007

Table 67 - Fastest mobile growth by nation and annual change - 2004 - 2005; 2007

Table 68 - African mobile subscribers, growth, penetration and market base - 1998 - 2007

Table 69 - Top 10 African countries by annual growth in mobile subscribers - June 2007

Table 70 - Top 10 African countries by subscribers and penetration - June 2007

Table 71 - Mobile subscribers in Asia - 1990; 1995; 2000 - 2008

Table 72 - Mobile penetration in Asia - top 10 markets - 2007

Table 73 - Mobile growth rates in Asia - top 10 markets - 2007

Table 74 - Wireless Internet subscribers in Asia - 2007

Table 75 - 3G WCDMA subscriber growth in Asia - 2004 - 2007

Table 76 - Mobile subscribers by carrier in Australia - 1993 - 20081

Table 77 - Annual growth rate of mobile subscribers by carrier in Australia - 1993 - 20081

Table 78 - Mobile subscribers by 3G network operator in Australia - 2003 - 2008

Table 79 - Mobile services market revenue per major operator in Australia - 1993 - 20081

Table 80 - Blended ARPU per month by operator in Australia - 2003 - 2007

Table 81 - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration in New Zealand - 1995 - 2009

Table 82 - Mobile subscribers per operator in New Zealand - 2001 - 2009

Table 83 - Mobile subscribers and penetration in selected South Pacific countries - July 2007

Exhibit 1 - Key applications from data pack users

Exhibit 2 - Growth drivers for prepaid mobiles in emerging markets

Exhibit 3 - Comparative characteristics of an MVNO

Exhibit 4 - Variables that affect MVNO development

Exhibit 5 - FMC services

Exhibit 6 - Growth inhibitors for FMC

Exhibit 7 - UMA examples from the telecoms industry - 2004 - 2007

Exhibit 8 -- Comparison of GSM, cdmaOne and TDMA market share

Exhibit 9 - TD-SCDMA technology

Exhibit 10 - Operators offering WorldMode - early 2008

Exhibit 11 - Description of R-UIM

Exhibit 12 - Frequency bands for GSM

Exhibit 13 - Phases of CAMEL standardisation

Exhibit 14 - Hutchison Whampoa international operations - 2006

Exhibit 15 - Top 3 Bluetoot applications - 2006

Exhibit 16 - Key considerations of number portability

Exhibit 17 - Countries with mobile numbering plans - January 2007

Exhibit 18 - What is spectrum?

Exhibit 19 - Frequency bands and symbols

Exhibit 20 - International frequency assignment plan - 2110 - 2450MHz bands (excerpts)

Exhibit 21 - Possible bands for future spectrum auctions

Exhibit 22 - African countries with more than one mobile network operator - 2007