Mobile TV: Global Standards Review & Forecast for Infrastructure & Handsets? 2007-2011

1 Introduction

1.1 Background Research on Mobile TV drivers

1.2 The Big Issues about Mobile TV Growth

2 Conclusions And Summary

2.1 Service Revenue By 2011

2.2 Infrastructure Spending By 2011

3 Technology Overview

3.1 Mobile TV Technologies

3.1.1 OFDM, Time Interleaving, Frequency Interleaving And FEC

3.1.2 Time Slicing

3.2 The Quality Imperative In Mobile TV

3.3 Different Video Densities And Resolutions

3.3.1 Underlying Codec Constraints

3.3.2 Fractals, Wavelets And Differential Codecs

3.3.3 Statistical Multiplexing

3.4 Datacasting Technology In Details

3.5 DAB IP, T-DMB And S-DMB

3.6 High Definition Radio

3.6.1 A Strictly US Approach

3.6.2 DAB Version 2.0

3.7 The Korean T-DMB Experiment

3.8 S-DMB Versus T-DMB

3.8.1 The Korean Political Nightmare

3.8.2 Separating Technology From Business Models

3.9 The New Chinese Mobile TV System

3.9.1 DMB-T/H - A Technology That Cannot Be Exported

3.9.2 Alcatel And Samsung In China

3.10 T-DMB In The Rest Of The World

3.11 DVB-H And DVB-SH

3.12 How The World Expects DVB-H To Be Deployed

3.12.1 The US Has No Vested Interest To Use DVB-H

3.13 Power Requirements For Mobile TV

3.14 DVB-H Trials And Live Services

3.14.1 DVB-H Will Take 50% Of The Market, Despite Losing Out In The US

3.14.2 MediaFLO And Whatever China Adopts Will Be Neck And Neck

3.15 DVB-H Support - Organizations And Vendors

3.15.1 Mobile DTV Alliance

3.15.2 DVB-H Asia Pacific Alliance

3.16 FLO, MediaFLO And The FLO Forum

3.17 Sprint And WiMAX TV

3.17.1 Qualcomm’s Audacity

3.17.2 DVB-H Versus MediaFLO

3.17.3 News Corp’s BSkyB And MediaFLO

3.18 The Penalty Of Using L-Band

3.18.1 The DVB-H MediaFLO Rebuttal

3.18.2 Dollar For Dollar The Two Technologies Are About The Same

3.19 DVB-SH Or S-Band

3.19.1 Cost Advantages Of Using A Satellite

3.19.2 DVB-H And DVB-SH Co-Existence

3.19.3 Alcatel-Lucent And Samsung In Alliance In Europe And China?

3.20 Multicasting Within A Cellular Signal

3.20.1 TDtv Uses The Unpaired TDD Channel In Most 3G Licenses

3.20.2 TDtv Trial In Bristol

3.20.3 Vodafone And Orange Are Deeply Rooted in DVB-H As Well

3.21 TV Over WiMAX

3.21.1 WiMAX Is Now Seen As A Tool For Existing Cable, Not A Rival

3.21.2 The Multicasting Problem With WiMAX

3.21.3 WiMAX Multicast Standard Incomplete

3.21.4 Other WiMAX Problems

3.22 TV Over Wi-Fi

3.23 Placeshifting

3.24 On Board Storage

3.25 Advanced Screen Technologies

4 Global Mobile TV Services and Forecasts - 2007-2011

4.1 Which Countries Will Install Mobile TV

4.2 The Issue Of Spectrum

4.3 Mobile TV Sign Up Rates

4.4 Some Sample Countries

4.4.1 France

4.4.2 Indonesia

4.4.3 UK

4.4.4 China

4.4.5 Germany

4.4.6 Rest Of The World

4.5 Western Europe

4.6 Eastern And Central Europe

4.7 USA And Canada

4.8 China And Asia Pacific

4.8.1 China

4.8.2 Japan

4.8.3 Korea

4.8.4 Israel, Middle East And Africa

4.9 South And Central America

4.10 Infrastructure Build-Out

4.11 Cost Calculation Methodology

4.12 Multicasting Cost Variables

4.12.1 General Handset Costs

4.12.2 Apple iPod & Other Handsets

4.12.3 Comparing Satellite Broadcasting Costs

4.12.4 Satellite DMB Cost Model - France (Alcatel Model)

4.12.5 DVB-H Cost Analysis - France

4.12.6 Low Power Issues

4.12.7 Little Difference Between Technology Costs

5 Equipment Forecasts By Region

5.1 Calculation Approach

5.2 Western Europe

5.3 Eastern And Central Europe

5.3.1 Ukraine

5.3.2 Russia & High-Expenditure Countries

5.4 USA And Canada

5.5 China And Asia Pacific

5.6 Israel, Middle East And Africa

5.7 South And Central America

6 Service Revenue Projections

6.1 Chip Component Revenue Projections

6.2 Non-Handset Sales

7 Mobile TV Trials

8 Mobile TV Business Models

8.1 Advertising Based TV Is Getting Saturated

8.2 Requirements For A Successful Mobile TV Business

8.2.1 If It Costs Less To Build A Network, Service Revenues Can Be Lower

8.2.2 Saturated Mobile Economies Need To Charge More And Sell Ads

8.2.3 US Cellcos Are Attracted To A Free Lunch

8.3 Advertising As A Revenue Stream

8.3.1 China

8.4 Short Form Mobile Content

8.5 Addressable Advertising

8.6 Local Advertising

8.7 Subscriptions First, Then Advertising

8.8 Blended Mobile Video

8.9 The Mobile Video Portal As The Next Major Software Platform

8.10 Other Revenues

8.11 Future Video

9 Mobile TV Equipment Vendors

10 Index of Participating Companies

11 Index of Companies

Table of Figures

Figure 3-1: How IP Video Needs To Be Sent

Figure 3-2: Mobile TV Road Maps

Figure 3-3: DAB Transport Protocol Stack

Figure 3-4: Dacos T-DMB Mobile TV Portable Player

Figure 3-5: Possible Network Topology Solutions For DVB-H

Figure 3-6: DVB-H And Media FLO Are More Or Less Identical

Figure 3-7: One Inch Disk Drive Trends

Figure 4-1: Countries Included With Under 50% Mobile Penetration

Figure 4-2: Formula For Calculating Penetration Of Mobile TV

Figure 4-3: Accumulated Global Mobile TV Enabled Handsets

Figure 4-4: Global Mobile TV Enabled Handset Deployments Per Year

Figure 4-5: Mobile TV Handset Breakdown By Global Region 2011

Figure 4-6: Mobile TV Handsets Shipments By 2011 By Region

Figure 4-7: Mobile TV Handsets Western Europe in 2011

Figure 4-8: Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In Western Europe

Figure 4-9: Mobile TV Handsets Eastern And Central Europe 2011

Figure 4-10: Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In Eastern And Central Europe

Figure 4-11: Mobile TV Handsets In USA And Canada In 2011

Figure 4-12: Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In The USA And Canada

Figure 4-13: Mobile TV Handsets In China And Asia Pacific In 2011

Figure 4-14: Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In China And Asia Pacific

Figure 4-15: Mobile TV Handsets In Israel, Middle East And Africa In 2011

Figure 4-16: Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In Israel, Middle East, And Africa

Figure 4-17: Mobile TV Handsets In South And Central America In 2011

Figure 4-18: Accumulated Mobile TV Handsets In South And Central America

Figure 5-1: Global Mobile TV Transmission Equipment In $ Millions

Figure 5-2: Accumulated Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending

Figure 5-3: Western Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011

Figure 5-4: Western Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending

Figure 5-5: Eastern And Central Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011

Figure 5-6: Eastern And Central Europe Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending

Figure 5-7: Canada And USA Spending On Mobile TV Transmission Equipment To 2011

Figure 5-8: Canada And USA Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending

Figure 5-9: Asia Pacific Spending On Mobile TV Transmission Equipment To 2011

Figure 5-10: Israel, Middle East And Africa Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011

Figure 5-11: Israel, Middle East, And Africa Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending

Figure 5-12: South And Central America Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Spending To 2011

Figure 5-13: South And Central America Mobile TV Transmission Equipment Annual Spending

Figure 6-1: Datacasting Mobile TV Device Non-Handsets

Figure 6-2: Cumulative Non-Handset Players

Figure 7-1: Global Mobile TV Trials And Live Networks

Table of Tables

Table 3-1: The Different Mobile Broadcast Technologies

Table 3-2: What Is The Video That We Want To Send?

Table 3-3: The Likely Reach Of DVB-H Through 2009

Table 3-4: Likely Reach Of MediaFLO Through 2009 In the Top 30 US Markets

Table 4-1: Mobile TV Handsets In Western Europe In 2011

Table 4-2: Mobile TV Handsets In Eastern And Central Europe In 2011

Table 4-3: Mobile TV Handsets In The USA And Canada In 2011

Table 4-4: Mobile TV Handsets In China And Asia Pacific In 2011

Table 4-5: Mobile TV Handsets In Israel, Middle East And Africa In 2011

Table 4-6: Mobile TV Handsets In South And Central America In 2011

Table 6-1: Handset Breakdown By Global Region 2011

Table 6-2: Unit Shipments - Mobile TV Handsets 2006-2011

Table 6-3: Revenue - Chip Shipments For Mobile TV 2006-2011