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FTTx Economics

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: IDATE
Published: September 2007
Product Code: R221-180
Description
Following Japan and the United States, massive deployment projects for Very High Speed networks are envisioned for Europe. The majority of these projects are apparently still held back by a number of factors: regulations (optical loop unbundling?), technology (fiber to the customer?) and demography (target only large cities and areas that allow easy access to passive infrastructures?). These factors illustrate the uncertainty that looms above the economic elements of these projects, which entail a considerable investment.

Using a schema of the different costs and revenue, particularly investment expenses, the study measures how a certain number of variables could affect the deployment of these access networks: population density, technical architecture and penetration rates. These measures are then sub-divided according operator category (incumbent, new, alternative and utility operators). More generally, it is important to create an overall picture, including a few general market factors (size, level of competition, price, etc.), which would allow the balance of operations on a large scale to be tested.

Most importantly, these different calculations will enable us to pinpoint the key business model parameters for the different types of operators and subsequently, the conditions required for a successful Very High Speed access deployment
Table of Contents
1 Very high speed developments in progress

1.1 Overall level of VHS deployment

1.2 Projects per country

1.3 Lessons from first deployments

2 Economic simulations and models

2.1 Categories of the industry players involved

2.2 The model

• Structure of the model

• General hypotheses

2.3 Effect of adjustment variables

• Architectural choices

• Types of infrastructure locations

• Rate of deployment

• Categories of the industry players and methods of access to passive infrastructures

• Structure of competition

3 Summary and analysis

3.1 Deployment economy of VHS access networks according to the different scenarios

• FTTH from very dense areas to moderately dense areas

• Shared FTTC

• Nationwide VDSL

3.2 Key factors and main obstacles for VHS profitability Appendix: Project technical sheets Descriptive technical sheets including technical, demographic and financial data for each project analysed.

• Japan: NTT

• United States: AT&T, Verizon

• Sweden: B2 (Telenor), Mälarenergi Stadsnat

• The Netherlands: KPN, Nuenen, Portaal

• Italy: Fastweb, Telecom Italia

• Germany: Deutsche Telekom

• France: France Télécom, Free, Neuf Cegetel

• Belgium: Belgacom
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