Global CDMA Business Opportunities

Critics doubted it would work. However, now even competitors have embraced CDMA as the next-generation standard. The result of over five years of research, this provocative report examines CDMA technology, applications, markets, competition, and future developments. Also included are in-depth profiles of more than 60 operators and manufacturers and CDMA growth forecasts for North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. If you are a wireless strategist, this is essential reading.

The report describes many of the new products, services, and business models enabled by CDMA. New consumer products will include Internet radios that download music on-demand, wireless cameras that print to the Web, personal navigators providing turn-by-turn driving directions, and electronic wallets offering the convenience of cash with guaranteed security and privacy. The report also examines how Internet-based business models will transform the mobile telephone industry.

Global CDMA Business Opportunities includes an executive summary presenting market forecasts for North America, Asia/Oceania, Latin America, Europe, and the rest of the world. The enabling technologies section analyzes and compares different flavors of CDMA, competing wireless data solutions, and related technologies. The business opportunities section discusses dozens of new applications and business models. The markets section discusses CDMA status and plans in more than 45 countries. Over 55 manufacturers and operators are featured in the vendor profiles section, including Qualcomm, Ericsson, Samsung, Nokia, Lucent, Motorola, KDDI, Sprint PCS, and many more.

Additional conclusions found in Global CDMA Business Opportunities:

1. CDMA is operators' near-unanimous choice for third-generation wireless services, because it is the only air interface that can satisfy both tomorrow's voice and data requirements. Despite competing flavors, cdma2000 and W-CDMA, harmonized standards and multi-mode handsets promise to expand roaming and boost economies of scale.

2. Wireless Internet success depends on three new services: mobilization, personalization, and localization. Mobilization makes existing Internet and enterprise applications available to users on the go. Personalization gives users the features and content they want regardless of where they are or what type of device they are using. And localization provides mobile users with information and services specific to their current location.

3. Qualcomm's high data rate (HDR) technology will give cable modem and DSL services a run for their money. HDR offers unprecedented Internet portability (access from different locations) and mobility (access while en route). HDR delivers a new level of "always on" performance because, unlike fixed solutions, it is "always there." And HDR will enable ISPs to offer high-speed access in locations not served by cable modems or DSL.

4. cdma2000 has major advantages over W-CDMA. cdma2000 will deliver full IMT-2000 capabilities (speeds of up to two Mb/s) in one-third as much spectrum. Commercial cdma2000 service will be introduced first, most likely by early 2001. And cdma2000 is backward compatible with the cdmaOne technology already used by nearly 70 million subscribers.

5. W-CDMA, the preferred solution in markets dominated by GSM, will also be successful. W-CDMA will be first deployed in new spectrum allocated for 3G services; then it will slowly replace GSM and U.S. TDMA in existing spectrum. However, W-CDMA is likely to take longer to develop and commercialize than proponents claim.

6. CDMA will enable new wireless business models. Greater network capacity means less reliance on usage-based pricing and more use of advertising-subsidized and e-commerce-based models. CDMA's robust data performance leads the way to a plethora of enhanced services.

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. CDMA Will Be the Dominant Mobile Telephone Technology

2. Why CDMA Has Grown Rapidly

3. Why CDMA is Preferred Technology for Next Generation Systems

4. CDMA: Key Enabler for the Wireless Internet

5. Factors Driving 3G Harmonization

6. The Best CDMA Business Opportunities

A. Infrastructure

B. Terminals

C. Wireless Services

D. Components

E. Software

F. Accessories

G. Content

H. Network Management Systems/Test Equipment

I. Third Party Services

7. Risks and Uncertainties: What if?

A. CDMA Overwhelmed By GSM Growth

B. Industry Fails to Achieve 3G Harmonization

C. 2G Enhancements Preempt 3G Solutions

D. 3G Services Are Delayed

E. Competing Wireless Data Solutions Get There First

F. Market for High Speed Wireless Data Doesn’t Meet Expectations

G. CDMA Gets Caught in Trade War Crossfire

H. New Air Interface Threatens to Leapfrog CDMA

8. KEY CONCLUSIONS

A. Mobile Phone Market Now a Two Horse Race: CDMA Versus GSM

B. cdmaOne/cdma2000 Will Dominate Asia and the Americas

C. CDMA Will Dominate Next-Generation Systems

D. cdma2000 Will Be First-to-Market

E. CDMA Will Drive Market for Fixed Wireless

F. CDMA Will Engender New Devices, Software, and Content

G. 3G Harmonization Will Benefit cdmaOne Industry Most

H. 3G Applications Don’t Require 5 MHz Channels

I. Qualcomm’s HDR Is A Winner

J. CDMA Will Unleash the Internet

K. Locating & Tracking Will Play Increasingly Major Role

L. CDMA Enables New Business Models

M. cdma2000 Will Spread Beyond Today’s cdmaOne Operators

N. Large Market Will Emerge For Embedded CDMA Devices

O. 3G Networks Will Migrate to IP-based Core Networks

P. CDMA Will Play Significant Role in Bluetooth’s Success

9. MARKET FORECASTS

A. North America

B. Europe

C. Asia

D. Latin America

E. Rest of World (ROW)

F. Total Worldwide Forecast

II. ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

1. Brief History

2. CDMA's Technology Advantages

3. CDMA's Disadvantages

4. Major Uses of CDMA

A. Cellular Telephone

B. PCS

C. Wireless Local Loop Telephone

D. Wireless Local Loop Internet Access

E. Radio Locating and Tracking

F. Terrestrial Mobile Data

G. Mobile Satellite Voice Service

H. Mobile Satellite Data Service

5. MAJOR FLAVORS OF CDMA

A. cdmaOne

B. W-CDMA

C. cdma2000 1x

D. cdma2000 3x

E. HDR

F. 1xTREME

G. LAS-CDMA

H. TD-CDMA

I. B-CDMA

6. 3G Harmonization

7. Key Supporting Technologies

A. ANSI-41

B. GSM-MAP

C. IP-Based Core Networks

D. Bluetooth

E. Wireless Application Protocol

F. WML

G. VxML

H. GPS

I. Operating Systems (Subscriber Terminal)

8. MAJOR COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES

A. GSM

B. GPRS

C. EDGE

D. U.S. TDMA

E. EDGE Compact

F. PDC

G. IS-661

H. iDEN

I. Ultra Wideband

J. Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM)

K. ARDIS (American Mobile Satellite Corp.)

L. Mobitex

M. ReFLEX

N. Ricochet

III. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES

1. MAJOR APPLICATIONS

A. Terrestrial Mobile Telephone

i. Landline Telephone Replacement

ii. Voice Over IP (VoIP)

iii. Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT)

iv. Group Calls/Dispatch

v. Enhanced Audio

B. Wireless Local Loop

vi. Why WLL Systems Have Achieved Only Limited Success

vii. Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS)

viii. High-Speed Internet Access

ix. Embedded Devices

C. Mobile Satellite

x. Mobile Satellite Voice

xi. Mobile Satellite Data

xii. Why Iridium Failed

xiii. How Globalstar Can Succeed

D. Wireless Data and Messaging

xiv. Two-way Messaging

xv. Telemetry

xvi. Enterprise Communications

xvii. Content Delivery

xviii. Streaming Audio and Video; Still Video

xix. Mobile E-Commerce (M-Commerce)

xx. Bluetooth Applications

xxi. Wireless Internet Access

E. International Roaming

F. Locating and Tracking

xxii. Fleet Management

xxiii. Asset Tracking and Recovery

xxiv. Personal Navigation

xxv. Telematics

2. EVOLVING BUSINESS MODELS

A. Traditional: Pure Transport, Smart Pipe, or End-to-End Solution?

B. Internet-based: Commissions, Tolls, and Advertising

IV. MARKETS

1. NORTH AMERICA

A. United States

B. Canada

C. Mexico

2. WESTERN EUROPE

A. United Kingdom

B. Germany

C. Finland

3. EASTERN EUROPE

A. Hungary

B. Poland

C. Romania

D. Russia

E. Ukraine

4. ASIA

A. Indonesia

B. Korea

C. Japan

D. Hong Kong

E. India

F. Bangladesh

G. Thailand

H. Singapore

I. Malaysia

J. Philippines

K. China

L. Taiwan

M. Mongolia

5. LATIN AMERICA

A. Puerto Rico

B. Argentina

C. Brazil

D. Peru

E. Guatemala

F. Chile

G. Dominican Republic

H. Haiti

I. Guadeloupe

J. Jamaica

K. Venezuela

L. Honduras

M. El Salvador

6. MIDDLE EAST

A. Israel

B. Egypt

C. Yemen

D. Kuwait

7. AFRICA

A. Democratic Republic of Congo

B. Mauritius

C. Zambia

D. Nigeria

E. South Africa

8. OCEANIA

A. Australia

B. New Zealand

V. INFRASTRUCTURE VENDORS

1. ALCATEL TELECOM

2. ERICSSON

3. FUJITSU INT’L TELECOMMUNICATIONS BUSINESS GROUP

4. GLOBALSTAR

5. HUGHES NETWORK SYSTEMS

6. HYUNDAI ELECTRONICS TELECOMMUNICATIONS SBU

7. INTERDIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS

8. LG INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS (LGIC)

9. LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

10. MOTOROLA/ASPIRA/INVISIX

11. NEC DO BRASIL

12. NORTEL NETWORKS

13. QUALCOMM, INC.

14. SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS

VI. HANDSET VENDORS

1. AUDIOVOX COMMUNICATIONS CORP.

2. DENSO WIRELESS

3. ERICSSON

4. GTRAN, INC.

5. HITACHI

6. HYUNDAI ELECTRONICS INDUSTRIES CO., LTD.

7. KYOCERA CORPORATION

8. LG INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS (LGIC)

9. MOTOROLA

10. NEOPOINT

11. NOKIA MOBILE PHONES, INC.

12. PANASONIC (MATSUSHITA)

13. SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO.

14. SANYO FISHER COMPANY

15. SIERRA WIRELESS

16. SONY WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY

17. TELSON ELECTRONICS CO., LTD.

VII. OPERATORS

1. BELL MOBILITY

2. CHINA UNICOM

3. CLEARNET COMMUNICATIONS, INC.

4. HANSOL M.COM

5. HUTCHISN TELECOM (HK) LTD.

6. IUSACELL

7. KDDI

8. KOREA TELECOM FREETEL, INC.

9. LEAP WIRELESS INTERNATIONAL

10. LG TELECOM, LTD.

11. PEGASO PCS, S.A. DE C.V.

12. SK TELECOM

13. SPRINT PCS

14. TELEFONICA

15. TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED

16. U.S. WEST WIRELESS (QWEST)

17. VERIZON WIRELESS

VIII. OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS

1. 3COM

2. DSP COMMUNICA