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Dark Fiber USAProduct Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Tarifica at PBI Media LLC Published: March 2001 Product Code: R273-0017 Description US long haul networks have been undergoing considerable expansion, and as these long distance carriers complete their networks, build is shifting to metro areas, still hampered by a bandwidth bottleneck. New players are emerging in these markets to compete in delivering bandwidth and applications. Long Haul Dark Fiber Availability Availability of dark fiber is generally good and improving as fiber deployment continues at pace in the US. Some operators are keen to sell dark fiber on their networks in order to recoup the massive cost of installation in the short term, often retaining around one third of the total fiber deployed to offer telecommunications services for long-term revenue. Pricing has been declining over the last six months, and it is anticipated that this decline will continue. Joint Ventures Joint ventures between players are occurring more and more often, where this increase in cooperation will continue over the next 2-3 years with co-construction projects, capacity and fiber swaps. Dark Fiber Providers There is a shift occurring with telecommunications infrastructure providers in the metropolitan space. Those who previously focused exclusively on delivering dark fiber and are now beginning to offer combinations of services, including managed bandwidth services. CLEC Consolidation Over the past two years, CLECs have actively moved into the broadband Internet future through mass deployment of low-end broadband services. However, some CLECs have already run out of cash and others are filing for Chapter 11. With further consolidation anticipated, this signals the likely decline in the low-end broadband market and a new era of all-fiber networks. Dark Fiber Pricing Dark fiber suppliers, although working from a standard tariff system, still approach dark fiber pricing on a case-by-case basis. As for long haul dark fiber pricing, dark fiber pricing in the metropolitan environments, particularly the Tier I market is declining, although at a slower rate. In most cases, these cities have a limited number of providers, keeping the price of fiber relatively high. Discounts for dark fiber are given on a number of occasions, typically when the customer acquires multiple fiber strands, a long lease and a significant amount of route miles. Bandwidth Pricing Bandwidth is cheaper in Tier I cities, where there is a greater choice of operators. This choice becomes progressively limited as the population of the market decreases, and consequentially the price for bandwidth rises. As indicated by the activities of metropolitan network builders, where build is beginning to shift from the Tier I to the Tier II and III markets, the Tier IV markets remain relatively unexplored. Online Exchanges Online Exchanges are currently a small group of emerging web based intermediaries facilitating the trade of wholesale telecommunication products and services. Currently there is only a handful of online exchanges actually facilitating dark fiber trading. Market investigation shows that fiber trading accounts for less than 5 percent of online exchange trading, but this is set to grow as utility companies diversify and more players participate in the intensifying telecommunication market. Rights of Way Issues for Metropolitan Areas Prices for rights of way in the metro environments are rising, where a telecommunications operator will be expected to pay fees in cities. Cities can also charge for traffic disruption in the densely populated, city center areas, usually on an ongoing yearly basis. In some cases, municipalities are beginning to ask for a percentage of revenues from the operators. Rights of way are not sold on the open market where owners have a great deal of control in transaction values often being the sole source of a right of way corridor. Construction Costs In the city core construction costs can become prohibitive, due to the resistance of the city to disruption and the engineering costs required negotiating the intricate existing duct. This has led to some innovative techniques in the market for deploying fiber, such as sewer systems, which are to a certain extent, greatly reducing the installation costs in comparison to trench digging. The laterals off the metro ring to the building are the most costly. In a metro ring high fiber counts are used and the installation cost per fiber is therefore minimal, the laterals on the other hand, containing fewer fibers per cable are relatively more expensive. Fiber to the Business It is thought that less than 5 percent of all office buildings have fiber connectivity in the U.S, however research for this report has found that this is changing fast. Carriers in the U.S interviewed suggest that copper is no longer the infrastructure of choice to the building, both in terms of cost and capacity. New companies have emerged in the industry, who install and operate in-building fiber networks, and are often prepared to enter into revenue sharing agreements with building owners. Fiber to the Home Currently there is almost no fiber to the home in the U.S. It is widely agreed that fiber networks will have to extend closer to the home, but what is unknown is exactly when and how far the fiber will penetrate. The arguments that exist for fiber to the home are compelling. Over the next five years we anticipate a huge increase in the number of home building projects that select fiber over copper access. For last mile suppliers, the extra investment required for fiber (approximately 20 percent), as opposed to copper installation to the home, is worth making given the rapid time predicted to recoup the costs as bandwidth demand escalates. Residential builders can capitalize the scalability of fiber, to meet this added value to the property, in effect future-proofing the project. However, for existing properties we are likely to see a wait before fiber to the home becomes common place. Telecommunications and cable companies with distribution networks, consisting almost entirely of copper infrastructure are reluctant to give up on their current networks. Fiber Supply Shortage A worldwide fiber shortage exists due to the exploding demand for bandwidth capacity. Suppliers cannot keep up with demand, although manufacturing capacity is now being increased. Over the last 12 months both Lucent and Corning have announced massive investments in plant expansion, however it is thought that this may not be enough to meet forecast demand and the shortage is expected to last until at least Q1 2002. Suppliers claim they can overcome this short-fall with effective management of their fiber inventory, although it may prove tough on new entrants, where incumbent carriers have already established long-term contracts with fiber providers. Buyers report that manufacturers have increased the cost of fiber from between 4 and 18 percent since the shortage began. Non-Zero Dispersion Shifted Fiber Non-Zero Dispersion Shifted (NZDS) fiber has become the fiber of choice in the US. This represents a shift from the traditionally deployed standard single mode fiber (SMF). The major builds, if not consisting entirely of NZDS, comprise of a combination of SMF and NZDS fiber. High Fiber Counts In the Tier I metropolitan environments nearly all operators are deploying networks with the highest possible fiber counts available. Metro Optimized Fiber Fiber optimised for the metro environments must be full spectrum fiber (operating in the entire wavelength range from 1280 nm to 1625 nm), it must have low value Polarisation Mode Dispersion, good core/cladding characteristics for low-cost fusion splicing using standard techniques. Low dispersion in the 1400 nm band for cost-effective 10 Gbps operation and be able to support use of coarse WDM systems to operate across all bands. Table of Contents
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