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Mexico Freight Transport Report Q3 2007Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: September 2007 Product Code: R302-1489 Description Now that Felipe Calderón, the conservative Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) candidate, has had his firstsix months in office, the freight transport industry is looking to the future in a reasonably optimistic mood. BMI’s newly released Mexico Freight Transport Report notes that Calderón will encourage continuing growth in trade with the US and Canada - Mexico’s North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners - and has specifically committed himself to boosting highway construction across the country. In fact, at the beginning of March, Calderón unveiled a major highway construction plan that includes the privatisation of toll roads that went bankrupt in the country’s mid-1990s economic crisis. Calderón said the government would build roads, as well as handing out new 30-year concessions to private companies to build and operate toll roads, and would privatise the highways that were taken over by the state in the 1990s. There are also signs that Mexican trucking companies will eventually get access to the US market. We are forecasting average annual road haulage growth in 2007-2011, measured in million-tonne km (mntkm), to 4.2%. Maritime freight growth twill average 4.3% per annum (not least due to the increased movement of cargo through Mexican ports to avoid congestion in US ports). Over all modes, Mexican freight growth will average 5.1% in 2007-2011, ahead of GDP expansion of 3.6% a year. BMI predicts that the value of the Mexican transport and communications will rise to US$122.5bn by 2011, representing 11.4% of the country’s total GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 1.89mn people, or 4.6% of the labour force, in 2006. We see that figure rising to 2.01mn by 2011, although as a proportion of the labour force it will remain constant at 4.6%. During the presidential election campaign Calderón promised to invest in building a more extensive highway network across the country and developing tourism. He also spoke of trying to emulate the big transport infrastructure investment surges in European economies like Ireland and Spain, which in his view underpin their current strong growth rates. BMI rates Mexico’s regulatory and competitive environments highly in relation to other regional markets. In this report, in fact, we set the country’s overall freight business environment score at 44 (out of a maximum of 70). This is one of the highest scores among the major Latin American freight markets that we cover, and is also comfortably above the regional average, which stands at 39.00. Table of Contents
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