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Turkey Freight Transport Report Q3 2007Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: September 2007 Product Code: R302-1497 Description The Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which cost about US$4bn to build, was officially opened ina ceremony in Turkey in 2006. The new pipeline measures just less than 1,800km long, including about 1,000km within Turkey’s borders, and has an annual capacity of up to 1mn barrels per day (bpd). The BTC line was backed by the US, which sees it as a way of allowing Caspian oil to bypass both Russia and Iran on its way to Western markets. More controversial from Washington’s viewpoint is Turkey’s recent deal announced by Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Guler in July 2007, to set up a joint venture with Iran and Turkmenistan to sell gas to Europe. The gas could find its way into the proposed US$6bn Europeanbacked Nabucco pipeline, designed to carry natural gas from Caspian and Middle Eastern countries via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to Austria and Western Europe. Other pipeline projects are also being pursued. The new gas pipeline to Greece was due to start operating in July. In our latest Turkey Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that oil and gas pipeline throughput is set to grow by an annual average of 9.8% across the 2007-2011 forecast period. Various factors support this prediction. Strong Turkish economic growth, set to average 5.5% per annum in the next five years, will underpin rising energy demand. More importantly, however, Turkey is set to become a pipeline hub for Europe. The BTC and the Nabucco line are among several projects, initially devised to meet Turkish energy demand, that have also drawn growing European interest as a gas supply route from the energy-rich Caspian. Among other plans for the energy corridor are an oil pipeline between Samsun on the Black Sea and Ceyhan, as well as two gas pipelines from Russia, which wants to extend the Blue Stream pipeline to Israel. Turkey also receives gas via a pipeline from Iran, while the Shakh-Deniz project, now functioning, is bringing gas from the Caspian to Turkey. Pipeline developments come against a generally favourable outlook for the freight sector as a whole. By the end of the forecast period to 2011, sea freight is anticipated to be the largest sub-sector, accounting for approximately 49% of all shipments, compared with 44% for road freight. The total volume of freight transport in 2011 will be 571.638bn tonnes-km. By transport mode, we expect the fastest growing to be air freight at an annual average of 10.5%; followed by pipeline throughput at 9.8%; maritime cargo at 8.3%; road haulage at 5.8% and rail freight at 2.7%. Turkey’s overall business environment rating is significantly above the average for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Turkey scores well in terms of infrastructure growth, regulatory and competitive environments and the transport intensity index. For the 2007-2011 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole in value terms. It will achieve average annual growth of 5.8%, versus 5.5% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$68.7bn in nominal terms by 2011, representing 11.3% of Turkey’s GDP. Table of Contents
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