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China Freight Transport Report Q1 2008Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: November 2007 Product Code: R302-1501 Description China’s economy continues to power ahead, driving trade and demand for freight transport. Our latestestimates put GDP growth at 11.5% this year, easing a fraction to 10.4% in 2008. China’s foreign trade will continue booming: up by 23.9% in 2007 and 21.5% in 2008. This double-digit trade growth continues to create massive demands on the country’s shipping, ports and infrastructure capacity. BMI’s China Freight Transport Report concludes that maritime and inland-waterway freight traffic will be a fast-growing transport mode in 2007-2012, with an average annual expansion rate of 14.9%. The driver for shipping growth is an economy that will grow by an average of 9.6% each year until 2012, as the country exports, manufactures and imports increasing volumes of key commodities such as oil, coal, gas and grains. Given this state of affairs, prospects for shipping and the wider freight transport industry are very encouraging over the forecast period. Our forecast is that freight carried across all modes in 2007-2012 will expand at an annual average of 13.9%, expressed in billion tonnekm (bntkm). As our figures indicate, the freight sector will continue to grow at a significantly faster rate than the economy as a whole, in line with intensifying demand for transport at this stage in the development of the Chinese economy. Underpinning the optimistic outlook is a supportive operating environment. BMI has given China’s freight-industry business environment a rating of 56 (out of a theoretical maximum of 70), which places it right up at the top of the Asia Pacific region. Extremely high scores for freight growth and transport intensity (a measure of foreign trade dynamism) more than offset a weaker showing for political risk and the regulatory framework. By transport modes, growth will be led by oil and gas pipelines (at an average rate of 17.0% per annum), air freight (16.5%), shipping and inland waterways (14.9%), road haulage (14.4%) and rail freight (11.1%). For the 2007-2012 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 10.7%, versus 9.6% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$336bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 6.1% of China’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 21.7mn people, or 2.8% of the labour force, in 2006. We see those figures rising to 23.2mn and 2.9% by 2012. Table of Contents
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