Russia Telecommunications Report Q1 2008: Industry Report

Russia Telecommunications Report Q1 2008

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: January 2008
Product Code: R302-1839

Description

Russia’s telecoms sector continues to evolve at an impressive pace. Although the country’s three largestmobile operators were all awarded 3G mobile telephony licences in April 2007, the first 3G services werenot expected to be available until some time in 2008. Nevertheless, in October 2007, Russia’s third largestmobile operator, MegaFon, became the first operator to launch 3G services, with initial availabilityrestricted to parts of St. Petersburg. MegaFon plans to launch its 3G network in Moscow and 15 otherRussian cities in the second half of 2008, as part of a US$1bn investment.

Following a 5.5% increase in the number of mobile users in the first half of 2007, it appears that thesector grew by a further 3.5% in Q307, with the number of mobile subscribers increasing to over 166mn.We estimate that full year growth for 2007 was close to 12.3%, with a total of 19.55mn new customersbeing added to the sector. With Russia’s mobile penetration already at 117%, the market is generally seenas being close to saturation point. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that the subscriber figuresreported by the operators conceal a significant number of inactive prepaid users which, if deducted, wouldresult in Russia having a much lower penetration rate. Second-ranked mobile operator VimpelCom hassuggested that as much as 17% of its user base was inactive at the end of Q307. Assuming that Russia’sother cellcos have a similar number of inactive users, then this would put the active user base at closer to136mn (equivalent to 95% penetration); this implies that there is still room for the sector to grow,especially given the tendency towards multiple handset ownership.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Market Data Analysis

Mobile

Table: Russian Mobile Market, Q307

Table: Russian Mobile Net Additions Q307

Table: Tele2 H107 Results

Russia 3G Licence Holders - Investment Plans

Fixed-Line

Table: Comparison of Svyazinvest Regional Companies (H107)

Table: Comstar Fixed-line Customer Base

Internet

Table: Svyazinvest Regional Companies, Broadband Subscribers (H107 vs H106)

Regulatory Developments

Mobile Data

Table: MTS

Table: VimpelCom

Table: MegaFon

Industry Forecast Scenario

Mobile

Table: Russian Telecoms Sector Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts

Fixed-Line

Table: Russian Telecoms Sector Fixed-line Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Russian Telecoms Sector Internet Historical Data & Forecasts

Business Environment

Russia

Table: Central & Eastern Europe Business Environment Ranking

Russia Telecoms Industry SWOT

Company Monitor

Svyazinvest

Golden Telecom

Mobile TeleSystems (MTS)

VimpelCom

MegaFon

Appendix: Competitive Landscape

Market Structure

Competitor Analysis

Table: Key Players In The Russian Telecoms Sector

Table: Operator Revenues 2004-06

Fixed-Line Overview

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Internet Overview

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Russia - Economic Activity

BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Ordering and More Information

Price and Delivery Options

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