Egypt Telecommunications Report Q1 2008: Industry Report

Egypt Telecommunications Report Q1 2008

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: January 2008
Product Code: R302-1847

Description

Growth in Egypt’s mobile market continues at a frenetic pace, as figures from Mobilis and VodafoneEgypt show that net additions have accelerated since the launch of Egypt’s third operator, Etisalat Misr,in May 2007. In the third quarter of the year, the market expanded by an estimated 16% to 27.7mn and webelieve that our year-end target of just over 31mn will easily be met. While growth is unlikely to besustained at this high level in the medium term, we nevertheless expect a steady rise in penetrationthroughout our forecast period, from 40% at the end of 2007 to over 80% by the end of 2012. So far,Etisalat’s presence has been felt predominantly by Vodafone, which has seen its market share drop to44%, compared with 49.5% at Mobinil. The market leader has decided to finally take the plunge andacquire a 3G licence, reaching an agreement with the national regulator in October 2007. NeitherVodafone nor Mobinil has so far given a firm data for the commercial launch of 3G services, and incontrast with our bullish view on the mobile market as a whole, we remain cautious in our 3G forecastingas we believe that expensive data and value-added services will be hard to sell to a customer base that iscurrently focused on cheap, prepaid voice and text services.

Rapid growth is also occurring in Egypt’s broadband market, albeit from a very low base. At the end ofQ307, incumbent fixed-line operator Telecom Egypt reported a broadband subscriber base of 172,000,up by 152% y-o-y. The operator estimates its share of the ADSL market at just under 50%, suggesting atotal user base of around 350,000 at the end of September 2007. Although this still represents apenetration rate of under 1%, we are encouraged by the importance being accorded to broadband servicesby the national regulator, the NTRA. Numerous measures to cut the cost of broadband access and to raisePC penetration in Egypt should benefit the market going forward, and we have upgraded our broadbandforecasts.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Market Data Analysis

Mobile

Table: Egypt Quarterly Mobile Net Additions ('000)

Table: Mobile Market Shares (%)

Table: Egypt Mobile Subscribers (Q307)

Table: Egyptian Mobile ARPU* (EGP)

Fixed-Line

Internet

Table: Egypt's Internet Sector: Key Indicators

Mobile Operator Data

Table: Mobinil

Table: Vodafone

Industry Forecast Scenario

Mobile

Table - Egypt Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts

Fixed-Line

Table - Egypt Telecoms Sector - Fixed-line - Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Egypt Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts

Business Environment Rankings

Africa

Egypt

Table: Africa Business Environment Rankings

SWOT Analysis

Egypt Telecommunications Sector - SWOT

Company Profiles

Regional Case Study: Ericsson

Table: Sony Ericsson Sales (EURmn)

Operators

Telecom Egypt (TE)

Mobinil

Vodafone Egypt

Appendix: Competitive Landscape

Market Structure

Competitor Analysis

Table: Key Players: Egypt Telecoms Sector

Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators

Key Players

Fixed-Line

Internet

Mobile

Macroeconomic Forecast

Table: Egypt - Economic Activity

BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Ordering and More Information

Price and Delivery Options

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