Greece Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008: Industry Report

Greece Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: March 2008
Product Code: R302-2363

Description

From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) foreach of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensivecomparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible inthe past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sectorand conditions prevailing in other sectors.

Greece’s overall CBBER is 69.1. The equivalent figures for the US and the eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4,respectively. Greece’s CBBER is the highest of all the countries we monitor in Central and EasternEurope.

Within the CBBER, the most important aspect is the (banking) market element of the limits of potentialreturns. This element accounts for 42% of the overall CBBER. Greece’s rating for this element (69.4) isslightly higher than the overall CBBER and the country element of the limits of potential returns (64.0).Greece’s banking sector is well developed, with large total assets and expectations of strong growth intotal assets and client loans during the 2007-2012 forecast period.

Nevertheless, the CBBER shows that Greece’s banking sector is being held back by country risk factors.While GDP per capita is the highest in the region, the country is subject to GDP volatility and suffersfrom high corporate taxation.

Despite slowing over our five-year forecast period, economic activity will remain buoyant over themedium term. However, structural reforms are crucial if Greece is to sustain economic growth above theEU average over the longer-term.

Greece’s attempts to revise up its GDP figures for the 2002-2006 period have largely been rejected byEurostat, the EU’s statistics agency. However, this does little to alter the medium-term outlook for theeconomy, as crucial structural issues still need to be addressed. Indeed, if the proposed revision had beenapproved, it would have burdened Athens with a greater financial obligation to the EU as Greece wouldhave become a richer EU member, meaning that the new figures may have in fact been a net negative forthe economy.

Greece had sought to restate its GDP to include parts of the black economy, estimated to be around 30%of the country’s EUR210bn output, in order to improve some of its key economic ratios. However,Eurostat approved only one-third of the proposed measures, meaning that ratios currently under EUscrutiny, such as the budget deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio, are unlikely to improve dramatically. Theproposed 25.7% revision would have shaved half a percentage point from Greece’s budget deficit in2007, and brought debt down to 80% (from around 100%) of GDP.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Table: Levels In Billions Of Euros

Table: Levels In Billions Of US Dollars

Table: Levels At December 31 2006

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q108

Table: Projected Levels In Billions Of Euros

Table: Projected Levels In Billions Of US Dollars

Key Issues

Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast

Greece Commercial Banking SWOT

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating

Table: Greece’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

International Context

Lending Trends And External Accounts

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End 2006

Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP)

Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)

Per-Capita Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2006 ( 17

Macroeconomic Trends And Developments

Table: Greece - Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Sce21

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Projected Levels In Billions Of Euros

Table: Projected Levels In Billions Of US Dollars

Comment On Forecasts

Comment On Trends

Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, December 31 2006

Banks’ Bond Portfolios

Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2006

Competitive Landscape.25

Market Protagonists

Methodology

Basis Of Projections

Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Ordering and More Information

Price and Delivery Options

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