|
|
Slovakia Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: March 2008 Product Code: R302-2366 Description From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) foreach of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensivecomparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible inthe past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sectorand conditions prevailing in other sectors.Slovakia’s overall CBBER is 47.0. The equivalent figures for the US and the eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4,respectively. This places Slovakia in the bottom quartile of countries in Central and Eastern Europe thatare surveyed by BMI. Within the CBBER, the most important aspect is the banking market element of thelimits of potential returns. This element accounts for 42% of the overall CBBER. Slovakia’s (43.4) islower than the overall CBBER and also lower than the country element of the limits of potential returns(45.7). While having a relatively good GDP per capita relative to its region, Slovakia has a low total assetbase and weak estimated growth in total assets and client loans. After expanding by 9.4% y-o-y in Q207, we are forecasting the Slovak economy to slow steadily over thelong term, as an anticipated decline in investments and manufacturing weighs on growth. That said,investment levels should remain relatively robust and the acceleration of private consumption indicatesthat Slovak economic growth should still outpace the rest of Central and Eastern Europe until 2009.The Slovak economy continues to boom, with Q207 real GDP growth coming in at an impressive 9.4%year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 9.0% y-o-y in Q107 and 6.7% y-o-y over the same period a year earlier.This brings total H107 growth to 9.2% y-o-y, in line with our estimate for a 2007 real expansion rate of8.5%. Quarterly GDP growth was expected to slow through the latter half of 2007, weighed by high baseeffects from the above-9.0% growth in H206 resulting from the opening of two new large automobilefactories. After hitting a record monthly high of 18.9% in July, we expected that industrial output growthwould peak in the third quarter and proceed to fall steadily after that. This will tie into the country'sexports, with real export growth having already slowed from a record high of 24.1% y-o-y in the firstquarter to 18.0% y-o-y in Q207. Indeed, in addition to base effects, we are also concerned about a potential slowdown in external demandweighing on the country’s export growth. Q207 eurozone growth slipped to 2.5% y-o-y, down from 3.1%y-o-y in the previous quarter, with strong signs suggesting that growth in the developed EU markets haspeaked. A global monetary tightening cycle will likely weigh on growth, while an international creditcrisis stemming from the US housing market will further add to consumer pessimism. This is of particularconcern for Slovakia, whose exports are dominated by high-value consumer products, notablyautomobiles and home electronics. Table of Contents
|
|
||||||||
MindBranch has been the leading provider of industry and investment research from more than 550 independent research firms since 1992. With over 90,000 market research reports, MindBranch is your trusted source of competitive business intelligence. |