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Egypt Commercial Banking Report Q3 2007Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: October 2007 Product Code: R302-2450 Description Key IssuesThis quarter we have updated a lot of the numeric information in the banking reports. We now have final banking statistics, sourced from the central bank/regulator or trade association, in relation to the end of 2006 for all countries other than Iran. All of the commercial banking reports need to be considered in the context of a global environment that was benign for banks in the vast majority of the 59 countries for which have collected data. In 2006 the median local-currency growth in total assets was 17.2% (in Croatia). The median local-currency growth in total loans was 18.2% (in Bangladesh). The median localcurrency growth in total deposits was 16.9% (in Algeria). In almost all countries local currencies were stable or rising, relative to the US dollar. Except in Venezuela and Iran, figures were not distorted by double-digit inflation. Loan/deposit, loan/asset and Loan/GDP ratios all provide a rough measure of the development of the banking systems. Across the 59 countries for which we have collected data, the median loan/deposit ratio is 85.1% (in Thailand). The median loan/asset ratio is 54.8% (in Romania). The median loan/GDP ratio is 53.4% (in Kuwait). Across the eurozone, by comparison, the equivalent numbers are 126.4%, 50.6% and 119.3%. All three ratios are rising in most of the countries for which we have collected data. The Egyptian economy has had strong growth in 2006, and is on track to achiever BMI forecasts of 6.7% real GDP growth in FY06/07. Inflation remains a risk, but recent consumer pice index (CPI) figures are positive. The last confirmed CPI reading was 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May, compared with 12.8% y-o-y in March. Political instability in Egypt and the region continues to be of concern to investors, but the risk is minimal at the moment. Business confidence is based on the reformist pro-market government remaining in power. Liberalisation of the banking sector continues. The government recently announced the privatisation of Banque du Caire, as well as plans to open up Egyptian debt markets to overseas investors by listing local instruments on the Euroclear system. The arrival of Dubai’s Amlak Finance will be key to the development of both the mortgage and Islamic finance industries in Egypt. Table of Contents
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