|
|
Kenya Freight Transportation Report 2008Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: April 2008 Product Code: R302-2970 Description Congestion at Mombasa port, a key gateway not only for Kenya but for other East African countries,
remained an issue of concern throughout 2007. A survey carried out by the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA)
published in August showed that containers destined for Kenya itself and for neighbouring Uganda
contributed most to the congestion problem. Kenya-destination boxes were found to have an average
dwell-time in the port of 23 days. The port was found to contain a total of 15,641 containers, 3,027 more
than its official capacity of 12,614. Containers were stacked up to three high and there was an overflow
with a number stacked outside the terminal itself. The KPA team that carried out the survey said that
congestion could be reduced if there were more railway wagons and a more efficient off-take onto the
Kenya-Uganda railway. We are optimistic that KPA can continue its recovery from years of debt, underinvestment
and congestion. In our latest Kenya Freight Transport Report, BMI concludes that maritime
freight volume is set to accelerate further to expand by an annual average of 11.5% in the 2007-2011
forecast period. Various factors support this prediction. We now expect average GDP growth of 6.1% a year over the next five years, which will underpin demand for freight. International trade will grow at a higher 9.3% rate over the same period. Kenya’s ports are of course an important conduit for freight transit to neighbouring East African countries, and this too will boost demand. A further factor is the likely improvement of hinterland transport links, particularly now that the combined concessioning of the Kenyan and Ugandan railway companies to the Rift Valley Railways (RVR) consortium has been completed. Prospects are also encouraging for recovery in wider freight business. Road freight will continue to be the favoured mode of land transport. We are predicting that annual volume will grow by an average of 8.5% in the 2007-2011 period. Rail freight, plagued by under-investment, has contracted, and it will take some time after the completion of the concessioning process before any kind of strong recovery is likely. We are forecasting average annual growth of 5.7% in tonnage. Air freight is likely to perform dynamically with expected annual growth of 12.5%. In the overall Middle East and Africa (MEA) business environment matrix, Kenya currently scores 36, an improvement on last year but still below the regional average of 39.8. The country has below average scores in a number of categories including political and economic risk and in its development and support of infrastructure. However, Kenya manages to score close to the regional average in terms of its regulatory and competitive environments, largely because it has made some progress in adopting air safety standards and has been forced to seek private sector involvement in key transport sub-sectors, particularly air shipments. For the 2007-2011 forecast period, we expect Kenya’s transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 6.6% in value terms, versus 6.1% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$3.94bn in nominal terms by 2011, representing 8.1% of Kenya’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 94,000 people, or 5.0% of the labour force, last year. We see that figure rising to 104,000 by 2011, while remaining proportionately constant at 5% of the total. Table of Contents
|
|
||||||||
MindBranch has been the leading provider of industry and investment research from more than 550 independent research firms since 1992. With over 90,000 market research reports, MindBranch is your trusted source of competitive business intelligence. |