|
|
Hong Kong Commercial Banking Report Q2 2008Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: April 2008 Product Code: R302-3044 Description In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced fromcentral banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: inalmost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive onparticular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had beenpreviously.Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vastmajority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being,emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in thewake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectorsof the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). Themedian rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (inMorocco). In some countries - and not just those enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. InUkraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more thanone-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iranand Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries. In absolute terms, Hong Kong’s banking sector enjoyed reasonable growth through the year to December31 2007. In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 25%, 20% and23% respectively. Of the 59 countries surveyed, China ranks 24th in terms of local currency asset growth,34th in terms of local currency loan growth and 15th in terms of local currency deposit growth. Hong Kong’s rankings in terms of its loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios are 56th, 56th andsecond, respectively. While the first two ratios were falling, the loan/GDP ratio increased. This is in acountry with per capita GDP of US$28,443 and deposits per capita a high US$104,509. In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would rise by 5%, 6% and 8%annually through the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we arelooking for growth rates of 15%, 13% and 14% respectively. Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating(CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits ofpotential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurancepotential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends onan assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments ofoverall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment. Hong Kong’s overall CBBER is 81.6. The equivalent figures for the US and the eurozone are 84.8 and84.6, respectively. Hong Kong’s CBBER is higher than that of any other country in the Asia Pacificregion. Australia and Singapore offer the closest comparison (at 77.0), followed by South Korea (at 74.8).Within the CBBER, the most important aspect is the (banking) market structure of the limits of potentialreturns. This accounts for 42% of the overall CBBER. Hong Kong’s rating for this element - 79.4 - isslightly lower than the overall CBBER and about the same level as the country element of the limits ofpotential returns - 78.9. By both regional and international standards, Hong Kong scores very highly inboth the market risks (96.7) and the country risks (80.9) of the risks to the realisation of returnsHong Kong’s economy continues to perform strongly, as domestic consumption remains robust and theknock-on effects of China’s booming economy continue to provide a boost to the territory. However,while consumption is set to remain strong, a softening of external demand for Hong Kong exports as aresult of a slowing US economy is a downside risk to growth. Nonetheless, demand from China will helpsupport Hong Kong’s merchandise exports and global demand for services from the territory willmaintain their current robust momentum. We are forecasting Hong Kong’s real GDP to expand 5.6% in2008, and while this will be down slightly from the 6.2% growth witnessed in 2007, it will neverthelessremain robust. Table of Contents
|
|
||||||||
MindBranch has been the leading provider of industry and investment research from more than 550 independent research firms since 1992. With over 90,000 market research reports, MindBranch is your trusted source of competitive business intelligence. |