Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q3 2009: Industry Report

Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q3 2009

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: June 2009
Product Code: R302-6529

Description

We have revised our forecasts slightly this quarter on the back of a recent bounce in the price of oil andbetter than expected gross fixed capital formation and real investment growth figures. Nigeria’sgovernment revenues - and the economy as a whole - remain highly dependent on the price of oil(Nigeria’s key export). Brent Crude was trading at US$58/b at one stage in May 2009, considerablyhigher than the level of US$37/b witnessed in December 2008, at the bottom of the commoditycorrection. In this context, we now envisage real growth in Nigeria’s construction industry registering acontraction of -10.8% in 2009, compared with our earlier forecast of -14.5%. We envisage largely flatsector growth in 2010.

An indication of the dire state of the power sector came in May 2009, as the state-run Nigerian NationalPetroleum Corporation (NNPC) was reported to be in talks with an ex-subsidiary in order to secure areliable power supply for its Port Harcourt Refinery. The refinery has been closed since 2008 due topower shortages. A newspaper report quoted an unnamed source saying that gas-powered electricitycould be sold to the NNPC by Eleme Petrochemical Company, in exchange for natural gas liquids. Thisnews came in a context where Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) was reportedly generating acountrywide electricity supply of less than 2,200MW - barely enough to supply Lagos State. Also in May2009, two lawmakers who had been investigating corruption in the power sector were detained. Thecountry’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission said that the two were being investigated for theiralleged role in an NGN6bn corruption scandal relating to contracts for rural electrification.

Nigeria sits in mid-table in our Project Finance Ratings, with a placing of fifth out of nine Africancountries. Nigeria scores reasonably solidly in the Commissioning and Operating phase relative to otherAfrican countries, in large part owing to strong inputs for the Energy and Utilities variable. However, thecountry is let down by its performance in Design and Construction phase, due to a poor regulatoryenvironment and a poor score for inputs.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: Market Overview; Nigeria; Global Overview
Table: Infrastructure Stimulus Plans List, 2009-2010 (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis: Nigeria Infrastructure Industry SWOT; Nigeria Political SWOT; Nigeria Economic SWOT; Nigeria Business Environment SWOT; Major Infrastructure Developments and Key Projects; Transport Infrastructure Overview; New and Ongoing Projects; Airports; Railways; Ports; Road Networks
Table: Nigeria - Major Transport Infrastructure Projects: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview; New and Ongoing Projects; Power Plants and Transmission Grids; Oil And Gas Pipelines; Water
Table: Nigeria - Major Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Projects: Construction Overview; New and Ongoing Projects; Residential Construction
Table: Nigeria - Major Construction Projects: Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Construction And Industry Data: Business Environment; Business Environment Regional Overview; Africa Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings; Limits of Potential Returns; Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns; Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Africa
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating: Overall Project Finance Rating; Foreign Direct Investment; Labour Force; Legal Framework; Tax Regime; Macroeconomic Outlook; Political Outlook; Company Monitor; Julius Berger Nigeria Plc.; HFP Engineering; Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$): BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Construction Industry; Sources; Business Environment Ratings; Ratings Overview
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators: Project Finance Ratings Methodology; Design & Construction Phase; Historical Data & Forecasts; Commissioning and Operating Phase- Commercial Construction; Commissioning and Operating Phase - Energy and Utilities; Commissioning and Operating Phase -Transport

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