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Mongolia Mining Report Q3 2009

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: July 2009
Product Code: R302-6972
Description
Mongolia’s mining industry has great potential. Its mineral resources are largely unexplored andunexploited. That said, the exploration that has been carried out to date has found sizable reserves ofcoal, copper, fluorspar and gold. Full scale extraction of these resources has occurred at a number ofmines. In total, about 80 types of minerals have been discovered in Mongolia. However, the biggestdrawback to foreign investment remains regulatory issues. In May 2009, the Mongolian governmentwas forced to defend itself in the Frankfurt Court of International Arbitration, after it was sued forUS$1bn by Russian mining company Altan Dornod Mongol. As reported by Mongol News, thecompany accuses the Mongolian authorities of taking excessive taxation from Russian investments,claiming that the 68% windfall tax is against international law as Mongolia and Russia have signed abilateral agreement to avoid double taxation for companies operating between the territories. TheMongolian Taxation Authority claims that Altan Dornod Mongol owes MNT56bn (US$39.6mn) andhas subsequently shutdown the company’s bank accounts and is threatening to confiscate its mininglicenses.

Meanwhile, BMI remains concerned about ongoing delays to the finalization of what will be alandmark agreement over drilling rights at the Oyu Tolgoi gold and copper mine, although we expectthe deal to be finalised in H109, with a resultant surge in FDI inflows through the remainder of 2009and 2010. Indeed, the importance which Oyu Tolgoi, and the underlying legal contract between thegovernment and Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto and Canada’s Ivanhoe will play for Mongolia’s growthdynamics cannot be downplayed. As the biggest foreign investment project in Mongolia’s history, weexpect the benchmark mining agreement to not only increase investment inflows in the short term, butalso serve as the framework upon which future projects will be based.

Yet, in late April the Democratic Party, which is a partner in Mongolia’s coalition government,announced its reservations about the draft investment agreement governing the project. Though mostlegislators in Ulan Bator remain keen on finalising the landmark mining deal, ongoing disagreementswithin parliament continue to obstruct conclusion of the agreement.

Key participants in the mining sector include: Centerra Gold, Erdene Gold, Ivanhoe Mines, QGX,Solomon Resources, and South Gobi Energy Resources (a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Mines). Key exportmarkets include China, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the US.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Industry Trends And Developments
Overview
Regulatory Structure
Recent Developments
Key Projects
Metals
Gold
Copper
Minerals
Fluorspar
Coal
SWOT Analysis
Mongolia Political SWOT
Mongolia Economic SWOT
Mongolia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Overview
Table: Asia-Pacific Business Environment Ranking
Mongolia - Business Environment Ranking
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Legal Framework
Property Rights
Physical Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Metals Price Outlook
Aluminium
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast
Copper
Table: BMI Copper Forecast
Global Industry Overview
Regional Analysis
Mongolia’s Mining Industry Forecast
Table: Mongolia Mining Industry Data and Forecast, 2006 - 2013
Competitive Landscape
Company Monitor
Centerra Gold Inc
Erdene Gold Inc
Ivanhoe Mines
Solomon Resources Limited
SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd
Appendices
Appendix A: Global Assumptions
Global
Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
Economic Activity
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2006-2012 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2008-2010
Monetary Policy
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2006-2010 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2006-2010 (average)
Commodities
Appendix B - Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Overview
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Ordering and More Information
Price and Delivery Options



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