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Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q3 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: July 2009 Product Code: R302-7359 Description BMI’s Central Asia Telecommunications Report for Q309 covers Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, with five-year forecasts for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, as well asmarket data analysis sections for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets.This quarter sees revisions to our Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan fixed-line forecasts, down for the formerand up for the latter. Uzbekistan is forecast to have the slowest fixed-line growth rate of the five countrieswe cover, averaging less than 2% per year over the next five years. We believe that Tajikistan’s fixed-linepenetration overtook that of Uzbekistan in 2008, leaving Uzbekistan with the lowest fixed-linepenetration in the region. Although incumbent Uzbektelecom and a host of alternative operators areexpanding their fixed-line network coverage and experiencing some subscriber growth, we do notanticipate rapid take-up. Fixed-line growth in 2008 was stronger than we had expected in Kazakhstan,with penetration rising to 23%, more than double Turkmenistan’s 9.5%. Each of the countries’ fixed-line sectors is dominated by an incumbent, making fixed-line developmentheavily dependent on these operators. Competition in the countries varies, but even in the more developedones like Kazakhstan, most of the competitors are focused on the internet sector rather than fixed-line. With mobile penetration dramatically increasing in each country, fixed-to-mobile substitution will impactfixed-line growth more and more in the coming years. The internet sectors in Central Asia are seriously underdeveloped, with internet usage and broadbandsubscriptions being extremely low across the region. That said, the markets do appear to be developing. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in particular are progressing quickly, seeing the launch of advanced servicessuch as IPTV and witnessing growing competition from alternative operators, such as East Telecom andArna, illustrating the technological development in some small areas in the region. Given theunderdeveloped nature of the countries’ wireline infrastructure, alternative technologies such as WiMAXand satellite-based broadband offer huge potential in the voice and broadband markets. Major international players such as Russia’s VimpelCom and South Korea’s KT Corporation alreadyhave a presence in the fixed-line and internet sectors, and the chance to acquire one of the nationalincumbents will be too big an opportunity to pass up. The privatisations of Kazakhtelecom,Tajiktelecom, Kyrgyztelecom and Uzbektelecom are all on the cards, and a good deal of interest isbeing shown. The potential of the broadband sector in Central Asia, coupled with a presence in highgrowthmobile markets, makes the incumbents extremely attractive acquisition targets. Table of Contents
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