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Japan Telecommunications Report Q3 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: July 2009 Product Code: R302-7420 Description BMI has expanded its coverage of the fixed-line and broadband markets, providing an in-depth outlook interms of the competing technologies. In the broadband market, the trend towards migrating from thetraditional DSL to fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) platform continues. This was led by NTT East and NTTWest, together claiming a 73.7% share of the total at the end of 2008. Coming in third place were theutility companies with a 10.4% share, followed by KDDI (5.4% share).As the second largest telecommunications operator and major rival of NTT, KDDI has similarly beenseeking to boost its presence in the FTTH market. It has, however, had relatively little success. Figuresreleased by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) show that the operator lost marketshare in the year ended December 2008 by 0.7 percentage points (pps). In an effort to offset this decline,KDDI has sought agreements to team up its FTTH network with the utility companies such as TEPCO. In terms of the DSL market, Softbank BB dominates, with a market share of 38.2%. The operator’semphasis has been on the corporate sector under its OTOKU lines. However, this has not been sufficientto offset the overall decline in its subscriber base, as Softbank BB continues to lose residential customersto faster speeds offered on FTTH. Our forecast for broadband has also changed. At the end of 2008, there were a total of 30.094mnsubscribers following growth of 6.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from the 9.9% increase reported in2007. The slowdown in growth relates to the existing maturity of the market. However, with WiMAXdeployments this year and long-term evolution (LTE) due to make a commercial appearance in 2010, weare expecting broadband subscriptions to rise by 6.5% in 2010, compared to 5.9% in 2009. Our coverage of the mobile market has been left from the previous quarter, due to the updates in fixedlineand broadband. That said, we have reviewed our mobile forecasts. In the quarter ended March 2009,there were a total of 112.1mn subscribers, following 1.655mn net additions. This was lower than in thepreceding year of the same quarter, when the market expanded with 2.042mn net additions. That themarket is slowing down is not surprising, given penetration rates of 88%. As we have noted, LTE is to make its entrance felt next year, and mobile operators will be busy movingtheir 3G subscribers onto the 4G platform in the following years. The impact of this could be significantgiven that it will be the first time that all three major operators: NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftbankMobile will share the same platform. Currently, NTT DoCoMo and Softbank Mobile operate onGSM/W-CDMA, while KDDI launches services off of its CDMA/CDMA2000. Customers wishing tomove from GSM to CDMA are therefore required to buy a new handset, which can be costly. Table of Contents
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