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North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: August 2009 Product Code: R302-7568 Description This quarter has seen an exciting development in our North Africa Telecommunications report. For thefirst time the fixed-line and broadband markets of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have been forecast byBMI analysts.North Africa is a relatively strong area in terms of its fixed-line sector. Across the world, fixed-linemarkets have been suffering from mobile substitution, and in most markets in Africa the fixed-linenetwork is so limited that it has barely any impact. In North Africa the networks are comparativelyextensive, and the fixed-line markets appear to have been somewhat insulated from the effects of mobilesubstitution. In Morocco, fixed-wireless technologies and competition came to the rescue, and BMIbelieves that they will shortly do the same in Tunisia. However, even with this reasonably clean bill ofhealth, BMI is expecting the decline to set in within the next five years. In terms of market developments, the most exciting things to come up since the last update are theawarding of a unified fixed-line and mobile licence to a France Telecom-led consortium in Tunisia andthe possible sale of Meditel in Morocco. The new operator in Tunisia will open up the fixed-line marketto competition for the first time, which should do a lot to boost the market. Meanwhile in Morocco,Portugal Telecom revealed its intention to sell its stake in the mobile and fixed-wireless operatorMeditel. Although its partner Telefónica has the first option on its shares, the Spanish giant has alsohinted that it would be willing to part with this asset, leaving room for a single principle shareholder totake over. There are many interested parties from the Middle East. These new developments make up to some degree, for the disappointment of the cancellation of AlgérieTélécom’s privatisation. Many of the same familiar faces are likely to be involved in the bidding. The end of 2008 saw a noticeable slowdown in mobile markets across North Africa, but especially inAlgeria and Morocco. In Algeria, Algérie Télécom experienced an unfortunate end of year in its mobilebusiness, actually losing subscribers in the final quarter. In Morocco, the downturn was not as dramatic,but it still made the end of year subscriber totals distinctly unimpressive. It would be easy to say that thisslowdown is in reaction to the global economic situation and that it is set to continue. However, BMIexpects things to pick up again during 2009 and suspects that practical considerations like the cancellationof unregistered or inactive SIMs had as much to do with the slowdown as falling consumer confidence. Table of Contents
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