Mexico Infrastructure Report Q4 2009: Industry Report

Mexico Infrastructure Report Q4 2009

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: August 2009
Product Code: R302-7741

Description

This quarter we have only slightly revised our infrastructure sector forecasts for Mexico. In light ofslightly better than expected data, we now expect the country’s infrastructure sector to contract by 5.1%in real terms during 2009, compared with our earlier expectation of 6.1%. We continue to expect growthof close to zero in subsequent years; indeed, we predict it will take until 2014 for annual real sectorgrowth to move above 1%.

It should be noted that in the event of the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) taking off, the risks to ourforecasts could be to the upside. The NIP is a wide government initiative that plans public and privateannual investment of MXN420bn (US$38.44bn) for the period 2007-2012. However, the NIP isdependent on significant private finance at a time when the willingness of potential investors to providefunds remains extremely limited. Moreover, the government is facing significant difficulties with its ownefforts to raise borrowing. The government has already had to curtail some of its plans for investment inroads.

Aside from the upside risks sketched above, there are also downside risks to our forecasts, particularly for2010. Much depends upon how prolonged the global economic downturn is: at the moment, our corescenario envisages a recovery in the global economy during 2010, but this scenario is by no meansguaranteed.

There were a number of significant developments in the power sector over the last quarter. A consortiummanaged by Spanish utility company Iberdrola secured a US$160mn deal to extend and modernisepower lines in the states of Veracruz and Chiapas, Iberdrola and Mexican group Energias Ambientalesde Oaxaca secured a US$176.6mn deal for the construction of the 101MW Oaxaca 1 wind farm, andFrance’s Alstom won a EUR45mn (US$61mn) deal to supply the 25MW Los Humeros II geothermalpower plant, including key equipment.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: Market Overview; Mexico; Global Overview; Governments To The Rescue: The Global Surge In Infrastructure Spending
Table: Infrastructure Stimulus Plans List: SWOT Analysis; Mexico Infrastructure SWOT; Mexico Political SWOT; Mexico Economic SWOT; Mexico Business Environment SWOT; Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects; Transport Infrastructure Overview; New And Ongoing Projects; Airports; Ports; Road Networks; Rail Networks; Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview; New And Ongoing Projects; Power Plants And Transmission Grids; Oil And Gas Pipelines; Water; Construction Overview; New And Ongoing Projects; Residential Construction; Commercial Construction; Major Projects Table
Table: Mexican Major Infrastructure Projects: Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mexico Infrastructure And Macroeconomic Historic Data And Forecasts: Risks; Business Environment
Table: Americas Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings: Limits Of Potential Returns; Risks To Realisation Of Returns; Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Americas
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating: Risks And Limitations To BMI's Project Finance Ratings; Foreign Direct Investment; Labour Force; Legal Framework; Tax Regime; Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity: Political Outlook; Company Monitor; Cemex; Empresas ICA

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