Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4 2009: Industry Report

Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: September 2009
Product Code: R302-7938

Description

The economic downturn and seasonal trends were blamed for the significant decline in net additions forQ109 compared to Q408. This, combined with Hutchison Telecom discounting inactive subscribers,amounted to 814,000 new subscribers in Q109, compared to 2.062mn net additions in Q408. By the endof March 2009, there were a total of 62.633mn subscribers.

Operators determined to minimise the impact of the economic downturn on their market shares haveresorted to price war tactics, largely confined to the prepaid market. By the end of March 2009, thenumber of prepaid subscribers had risen by 1.3% in the quarter, with postpaid up by 0.43% in the samequarter. Prepaid accounted for 89.6% of the total in March.

The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) plans to generate greater competition in the sectorby introducing MNP in November 2009. It hopes this will force operators to further lower their tariffs.

However, the overwhelming dominance of the prepaid market will see MNP have little impact ascustomers prefer to switch mobile numbers rather than pay a porting fee.

Our expectations are therefore that the prepaid market will continue to be the main driver behind growthin the mobile sector for some time and that, by 2009, there will be close to 70mn subscribers and apenetration rate of 108% before rising to 148% in 2013. The strength of prepaid will also be encouragedby the decision to delay the award of 3G licences until 2010, while operators continue to expand theirnetworks into rural markets as urban areas face saturation.

The impact of this to blended ARPUs will continue to be negative. BMI is for the first time forecastingaverage blended ARPU. Our ARPU forecast for Thailand is based on historical data published by themajor operators. This includes AIS, DTAC, True and Hutchison. According to the operators, they hadan average blended ARPU of THB256 in 2008, representing a 12.9% y-o-y decline. It is BMI’sexpectation that average blended ARPU rates will have fallen further during the course of 2010 toTHB207, and by 2013, reaching THB179.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis
Table: Thailand Wireline (Fixed Line & Broadband) SWOT
Table: Thailand Mobile SWOT: Thailand Political SWOT; Thailand Economic SWOT; Thailand Business Environment SWOT; Business Environment Ratings; Asia; Thailand
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings: Industry Forecast Scenario; Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts: ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts: Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line- Historical Data & Forecasts: Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts: Market Data Analysis; Mobile; Mobile Market Overview
Table: Thai Mobile Market March 2009
Table: Thai Mobile Net Additions Market March 2009: Subscriber Divisions
Table: Thailand Operator Subscriber Mix (mn): MOU & ARPU; A Comparison of Minutes of Use By Operator (mn); 3G
Table: Thailand 3G Market Plans: AIS; DTAC; TRUE; Others; Mobile Contract Wins; Table - Mobile Contract Wins; Mobile Content; Regional Outlook
Table: Asia VAS Market By Service (US$bn): Country Outlook; SMS; Ringtones & Mobile Music; Mobile Money; Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services (2008-2009): Mobile Operator Data
Table: Thailand Mobile Market Overview
Table: AIS
Table: DTAC
Table: TRUE
Table: Hutchison Telecom: Fixed Line; Fixed-Line Market By Operator Shares - 2007; True Revenue From Fixed-Line Telephony (%); Payphones; Thailand's Payphone Market By Operator (2007); Internet; True; TOT; TT&T; CAT; IPTV; WiMAX; Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments; Table - Wireline Developments (2008-09); Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments; Thailand’s Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities; Licensing
Table: Thailand Licences (February 2007): 3G And WiMAX Licences; Regulatory Developments; Competitive Landscape; Competitor Analysis; Key Players
Table: Key Players - Thai Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators’ Financial Results (US$mn): Company Monitor; Alcatel-Lucent Reports Abysmal Q109 Results, Partly Softened By NGNs
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Service Type (Eurmn): Wireline Out, IP In
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Region (Eurmn)
Table: Alcatel-Lucent: A Selection Of Major Contracts: Selected Profiles - Operators; Appendix; Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview; Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview: Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview: Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview: Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data; Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030: Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030: Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012: BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Glossary of Terms: BMI Methodology; BMI Forecast Modelling & Sourcing; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Telecommunications Industry Forecast: Sources; BMI Business Environment Ratings Methodology; Ratings Overview; Weighting
Table: Weighting: Indicators; Indicators

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