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Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q4 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: September 2009 Product Code: R302-7939 Description BMI’s latest update on the telecommunications market of Hong Kong contains revised forecasts for thedevelopment of Hong Kong’s fixed-line, mobile and broadband internet markets over the next five years.This quarter, we have also introduced an additional forecast, which charts the development of mobileARPU levels in the territory. ARPU levels in Hong Kong are currently being eroded by the generalslowdown in the territory’s economy and, in some cases, the accumulation of prepaid customers at theexpense of postpaid growth. Hong Kong’s mobile subscriber base grew by 3.4% in the first five months of 2009. This growth rate washigher than we had expected. As a result, we have raised our expectations for the size of Hong Kong’smobile market at the end of 2008. We now anticipate mobile subscriber growth of around 7% for theyear. Although penetration levels are high, reflecting the presence of a large number of multiple SIMowners, as well as inactive prepaid customers, most operators continue to report a steady expansion in thenumber of postpaid customers on their networks. Postpaid growth is being driven by a steady increase inthe number of 3G customers. Hong Kong had just over 3mn 3G subscribers at the end of May 2009,reflecting growth of over 9% since the start of the year. We now predict that the 3G subscriber base willgrow by 20% in 2009, a respectable growth rate although one which is notably lower compared with theprevious year. The latest data to be published by Hong Kong telecoms regulator OFTA shows that there were 1.974mnbroadband internet subscribers in Hong Kong at the end of May 2009. The number broadband subscribersgrew by 1.3% in the first five months of 2009. This relatively weak growth reflects the high penetrationrate, which is already almost 28%. This quarter, we have downwardly adjusted our broadband forecastprojections and now anticipate a 2.7% increase in the number of broadband subscribers. By the end of thisyear, we predict that the number of connections will reach 2mn. Growth will continue over the next fiveyears, albeit at a limited rate. Recent developments in Hong Kong’s telecoms market include the announcement, in June 2009, thatOFTA had awarded three existing operators, China Mobile Hong Kong (China Resources PeoplesTelephone), PCCW Mobile and SmarTone, additional 1,800MHz spectrum. The three operators paid atotal of HKD46mn (US$5.9mn) in upfront spectrum utilisation fees to gain access to 9.6MHz of radiospectrum in the 1,800MHz frequency band. Each operator will receive a separate 3.2MHz allocation. Hong Kong has slipped from third to fifth place in BMI’s latest set of business environment ratings forthe Asia Pacific region. Although Hong Kong scores above average in the majority of categories surveyedin our business ratings for the Asia Pacific telecoms markets, the country’s telecoms market score hasfallen below the regional average for the first time. Table of Contents
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