Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: September 2009
Product Code: R302-8050Description The only significant revision to our forecast for the quarter was for fixed line, after the latest figures for2008 were shown to have fallen over the year, marking the first time the number of lines has fallen. At theend of 2008, there were 3.905mn lines, a 0.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline. This was perhapsunsurprising, given the prevalence of mobile handsets, which have been subject to heavy reductions topricing.
For PLDT, the market incumbent, which has seen its share of the fixed-line market decline, the sectorstill represents an important revenue contributor. Accounting for over one-third of revenues (35%) as ofQ109, the operator launched a national service offering unlimited calls to all areas in an effort to buoydemand. The ‘Call All’ promotion offers unlimited calls in the Philippines for an additional PHP250(US$5.27) on the user’s fixed-line bill. Those subscribing to ‘Call All’ are provided with a Landline PlusSIM for a fixed wireless connection. Its Landline Plus subscriptions continue to rise, reaching 134,294 asof Q109 (a rise from 125,621 in 2008).
For these reasons, we continue to forecast that the market will rise, albeit at a slow pace, so that by theend of 2009, we estimate that there will be 3.93mn lines. However, penetration rates will have begun tofall overall, reaching 4.3% at the end of 2009. The rate will drop further to 4.2% by 2013.
The mobile sector put in a stellar Q109 performance, reporting above average quarterly net additions of3.808mn, above the quarterly average of 3.05mn net additions in 2008. By the end of the quarter, the totalsubscriber base is estimated at 71.864mn, which will be led largely by demand from the prepaid sector.
This will be encouraged further by the re-launch of PLDT-owned Red Mobile in July 2009, focused onprepaid voice and data calls, all offered at heavily reduced prices. However, the emphasis on prepaid willalso create a further decline in the blended average revenue per user (ARPU). Having reached PHP175.1in 2008, marking a 13.7% y-o-y fall, it is estimated that by the end of 2009, it will have dropped further toPHP129.7.
Greater maturity in the telecoms market and a lower score for country risk have led to a drop in thecountry’s position from 11th to 12th place in BMI’s latest quarterly business environment ratings table.This places it just ahead of Cambodia, which came 0.4 points below the country’s total telecoms score at49.5.Table of Contents - Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Philippines Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Industry SWOT
- Philippines Mobile Industry SWOT
- Philippines Political SWOT
- Philippines Economic SWOT
- Philippines Business Environment SWOT
- Business Environment Rankings
- Asia
- Philippines
- Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts
- ARPU
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data and Forecasts (PHP)
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Market Overview
- Table: Philippines Wireless Net Additions, Q109
- Minutes Of Use (MOU) And ARPU
- Table: Leading Mobile Operators’ Prepaid Vs Postpaid Net ARPU (PHP), Q109-Q108
- 3G
- Smart Communications
- Globe Telecom
- Digitel (Sun Cellular)
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2009
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Asia VAS Market By Service (US$bn)
- Country Outlook
- SMS
- Mobile TV
- Mobile Money
- Mobile Banking
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2009
- Mobile Operator Data
- Philippines Mobile Market Overview
- Smart Communications (PLDT)
- Globe Telecom
- Sun Cellular (Digitel Mobile)
- Fixed Line
- PLDT
- Table: PLDT Fixed-Line Revenue Breakdown, Q109 - Q108 (PHPbn)
- Digitel
- Bayantel
- Innove Communications
- Broadband
- Table: A Comparison Of Major Broadband Operator Subscriber Figures, Q109-Q108
- PLDT
- Innove
- BayanTel
- Eastern Telecommunications Philippines (ETPI)
- Mobile Broadband Services
- WiMAX
- Submarine Cables
- ePLDT
- Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments
- Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009
- Regulatory Environment And Industry Development
- Philippines: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Licensing
- 3G Licensing
- Table: Licensed Operators
- Interconnection
- Industry Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Competitor Analysis
- Table: Key Players - Philippines Telecoms Sector
- Table: Philippines Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2002-2008
- Company Monitor
- Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Service Type (EURmn)
- Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Region (EURmn)
- Table: Alcatel-Lucent: A Selection Of Major Contracts
- Selected Profiles - Operators
- Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT)
- Smart Communications
- Globe Telecom
- Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc (Digitel)
- Appendix
- Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Key Players
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Broadband
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
- Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006
- BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
- Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms
- BMI Methodology
- BMI Business Environment Ratings Methodology
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting
- Table: Indicators
- BMI Forecast Modelling and Sourcing
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Telecommunications Industry Forecasting:
- Key Indicators
- Business Environment Ratings
- Sources
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