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Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q4 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: October 2009 Product Code: R302-8500 Description BMI’s Central Asia Telecommunications Report for Q409 covers Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, with five-year forecasts for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, as well asmarket data analysis sections for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets. This quarter we haveupdated our fixed-line forecasts for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in addition toadding new internet and broadband data to the market data analysis sections.Central Asia’s fixed-line market’s are relatively underdeveloped and dominated by the countries’respective fixed-line incumbents. Competition in the market does vary but even in the more developedmarkets such as Kazakhstan, competition is not particularly fierce, with most alternative operatorschoosing to target the growing internet sectors over fixed-line. Nevertheless, fixed-line penetration in theregion is increasing, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Fixed-line penetration in Central Asia is below 10%in all of the countries except for Kazakhstan where penetration is now above 20%. Going forward, we arenot anticipating dramatic increases in the region’s fixed-line subscriber bases. Although fixed-linenetworks are being expanded, the mobile sectors are expanding at a much faster rate and fixed-to-mobilesubstitution is expected to grow in prominence. The region’s internet sectors are by far the least developed, with internet usage and broadbandsubscriptions being extremely low. However, the sectors do appear to be developing with Kazakhstan andUzbekistan leading the way and even witnessing the launch of advanced services such as IPTV. Althoughnone of the incumbents have yet been privatised there are several large foreign players in the regionincluding Russia’s VimpelCom and South Korea’s KT Corp through East Telecom. The broadbandmarkets in Central Asia offer the most growth potential and as the sectors are liberalised BMI isexpecting considerable amounts of investment to be ploughed in. However, until the incumbents areprivatised or up their investment levels we do not anticipate dramatic improvements in the region’sbroadband markets. The privatisations of Kazakhtelecom, Tajiktelecom, Kyrgyztelecom andUzbektelecom are all on the cards, and a good deal of interest is being shown. The potential of thebroadband sector in Central Asia, coupled with a presence in high-growth mobile markets, makes theincumbents extremely attractive acquisition targets. Given the underdeveloped nature of the countries’wireline infrastructures, alternative technologies such as WiMAX and satellite-based broadband offerhuge potential in the voice and broadband markets. The mobile markets are by far the most liberalised and developed sectors in each of the Central Asiancountries. The Russian operators MTS, VimpelCom and MegaFon all have significant interests acrossthe region, competing with each other and Nordic giant TeliaSonera, along with Turkey’s Turkcellthrough their joint venture Fintur Holdings. During the second quarter of 2009 BMI estimates that Kazakhstan’s mobile market penetration broke the100% barrier becoming the first country in the region to do so. In 2010 we have forecast Kyrgyzstan’smobile penetration to also break 100%, with Uzbekistan following in 2011 and Tajikistan in 2013. However, in Turkmenistan, which is the least developed and most closed of the region’s markets, we haveforecast mobile penetration to reach just 67% by the end of 2013. Table of Contents
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