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Poland Telecommunications Report Q4 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: October 2009 Product Code: R302-8502 Description The main development in the Polish telecoms market since our last quarterly update has been thecommercial launch of the country’s fifth GSM mobile network operator. CenterNet launched services atthe end of May, although at the time was offering just one prepaid tariff. The operator said that itlaunched solely to meet the requirement of its licence, and a full commercial launch would take placelater in the year. In June it emerged that CenterNet would launch a mobile service called wRodzinie inpartnership with the Lux Veritas Foundation. The Lux Veritas Foundation has a large number of foreignmembers and BMI believes wRodzinie has a good change of success in Poland’s highly penetratedmarket. Similar partnerships by CenterNet could see the operator approaching its ambitious targets of200,000 customers within a year of launching and 2.5mn within five years. Whether there is room for thetwo other companies that possess GSM licences but are yet to launch remains to be seen.At the end of Q109 mobile market leader Polkomtel had consolidated its position, increasing its marketshare to 33.1%. Meanwhile, Orange’s market share dropped to 31.1% on the back of a 501,000subscriber net loss. This left Orange with just 272,000 more subscribers than third-placed PTC, whichhad a market share of 30.2% at the end of March 2009. With future growth in the market expected tocome from the postpaid segment and declining prepaid subscriber numbers, the market leadership mantlecould change hands several times. The key could be which of the big three forms the most fruitful mobilevirtual network operator (MVNO) partnerships, in addition to their postpaid and mobile data offerings. Poland’s fixed-line sector held 10.55mn fixed-line subscribers at the end of 2008 after declining 3.5%year-on-year (y-o-y), a slowdown from the 4.7% decline seen in 2007. The sector’s decline continued toslow through the first half of 2009, falling by less than 1% over the first six months of the year. Theimproved performance from the country’s fixed-line operators is being driven by their improved tariffofferings and the bundling of fixed-lines with broadband and pay-TV. Nevertheless, fixed-to-mobilesubstitution is continuing and Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA) has reported this is being driven by aprice war in the prepaid mobile segment. As well as being the dominant fixed-line provider, TPSA also dominates the broadband sector, holding a38.9% share of the market at the end of June 2009. Broadband subscriptions grew to 5.830mn by the endof H109, representing broadband penetration of 15.3%. Growth is being driven by fierce competitionbetween TPSA and alternative operators such as UPC Poland and Netia, which have built out their ownnetwork infrastructure and have gained access to the incumbent’s network through wholesale line rentaland unbundled local loop (ULL) agreements. Access to the incumbent’s network looks set to be madeeasier in the near future. The regulator, UKE, looks set to abandon its plans to force TPSA into afunctional split into independent wholesale and retail units. In return TPSA will instigate a number ofalternative procedures that should see competition in the market given a significant boost. Table of Contents
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