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Turkey Telecommunications Report Q4 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: October 2009 Product Code: R302-8504 Description Turkey entered something of a new age in its mobile market at the end of July 2009, as all three networksfinally launched their 3G services. At launch, market leader Turkcell said that it saw 3G penetrationreaching 20% in two years. It is unclear whether this was meant as 20% of the mobile market, or 20% ofthe population. In two years, these will not be far off the same thing, but in any case BMI believes thatthis forecast is more than a little optimistic. 20% in two years would be impressive 3G growth for anymarket, and the Turkish mobile market is currently undergoing something of an extended downturn.Turkey’s mobile market contracted in both Q109 and Q209. Having ended 2008 with 65.833mn mobilesubscribers, by the mid point of 2009 there were only 63.665mn mobile subscribers in Turkey. This hasled BMI to downgrade our forecasts for the year, but we still expect the market to recover over the nextfew months, and return to its progress towards and eventually beyond 100% penetration. It has not, afterall, been entirely bad news for the mobile operators, with both Turkcell and Avea being quite successfulin improving their subscriber mixes. This may have had some impact on the subscriber figures, as it couldhave led to a few more inactive subscribers falling out of the market. MOUs have also continued toincrease, so mobile users have not cut back on their mobile spending. Vodafone continues to perform very poorly. In fact, it has seen four consecutive quarters of subscribercontractions, and has been well and truly overtaken by Avea in terms of revenues. BMI expects to seeAvea overtake it in terms of subscriber figures as well in the next couple of quarters if things do notdrastically improve for Vodafone. ADSL growth and fixed-line contraction have both continued in Q209, at basically the same rate asbefore. Türk Telekom has yet to find an effective way to stem the flow of subscribers leaving the fixedlinemarket. With alternative broadband technologies becoming increasingly widespread, more fibrebeing built, and WiMAX soon to be licensed, its job will get even more difficult as ADSL is probably oneof the biggest remaining draws to fixed-line subscriptions. Turkey is suffering at the hands of the global slowdown and financial turmoil. Turkcell reports that profitshave been hit by the massive depreciation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. BMI has forecastextremely difficult economic conditions in Turkey in 2009 and 2010, but we believe the telecoms sectorwill weather the storm well. We also hold that Turkey is well placed to have a strong recovery, once itstarts. Table of Contents
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