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Iran Telecommunications Report Q4 2009Product Type: Market Research ReportPublished by: Business Monitor International Published: October 2009 Product Code: R302-8530 Description BMI’s latest update on Iran’s telecommunications market contains new data on the size of Iran’s fixedline,mobile and internet markets at the end of 2008. It also includes an assessment of how the Iranianmobile subscriber market developed in the first half of 2009.We estimate that, by the end of June 2009, Iran had a total of 52.3mn mobile subscribers, up from justover 47mn at the end of 2008. These figures include the subscribers of Iran’s mobile market leader, thegovernment-owned Mobile Communications Company of Iran (MCI), as well as MTN Irancell, whichis owned by South Africa’s MTN Group, and the three smaller operators. Looking ahead, we predict thatIran’s mobile subscriber base will expand by 31% in 2009. By the end of the year, we anticipate a marketof almost 62mn customers and a penetration rate in excess of 84%. In our previous report on Iran’s telecoms sector, we published a cautious forecast on the development ofthe country’s 3G subscriber market. However, this quarter we have decided to avoid making predictionsabout the specific number of 3G customers. Our previous set of forecast figures was based on theexpectation that UAE operator Etisalat would launch HSDPA-based data services as part of its officialservice launch in the latter part of 2009. However, in May, BMI reported that Etisalat had been strippedof its licence to provide mobile services in Iran. This development makes it extremely unlikely that 3Gservices will be introduced anytime soon. After cancelling the award of Iran’s third national mobile licence to Etisalat, the government transferredthe licence to Kuwait’s Zain Group (Zain had come in second in the original auction). However, in July,the new concession was also withdrawn from Zain with the government suggesting that Zain had failed tofulfil its obligations. As a result of these developments, uncertainty now hangs over the award of thecountry’s third national mobile network licence. In August, media reports hinted that the licence had beenoffered to Russian mobile operator Megafon. However, Megafon has denied being offered the licence. Both Megafon and fellow Russian cellco VimpelCom were linked to the licence during the originalbidding process. This quarter sees Iran receive a slightly lower overall score in BMI’s Business Environment Rankings forthe Middle East. The lower score reflects a weaker rating for Iran in the Telecoms Market category. Thelower Telecoms Market score reflects the recent decision to withhold the country’s third mobile networklicence first from Etisalat and, subsequently, from Zain. Table of Contents
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