Southern Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2009: Industry Report

Southern Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: October 2009
Product Code: R302-8534

Description

Angola, Botswana, Mauritius and Mozambique are a bunch of pretty diverse markets. As BMI has oftenpointed out before, they can be roughly grouped into the well-developed markets of Botswana andMauritius, which have certain characteristics in common, and the less developed markets of Angola andMozambique, which likewise have some characteristics in common. However, even these comparisonshave many flaws.

The biggest movement within the Southern Africa report this quarter is the increase in our pessimismabout Mauritius’ mobile market. BMI was none too optimistic on the subject last quarter, but with theslowing growth having finally developed into actual contraction for both operators, we have decided tochange our forecasts to reflect a stagnating market even over the next five years. All competition appearsto have left both operators, and there are no signs that the regulator is about to liven things up with a newoperator or improved regulations to ensure effective competition.

Botswana’s growth is also slowing, but with its penetration continuing to climb, reaching approximately99% at the end of June 2009, such slowing is absolutely natural and to be expected. For the level ofpenetration within the country, Botswana is still showing really very strong growth. It is also moving totake advantage of new international bandwidth provided by the SEACOM cable, by setting upconnections through neighbouring countries. This should benefit the communications market as a wholeand the broadband market in particular. As across Africa, Botswana’s broadband market is very much inits nascent stages, but with the good levels of education and infrastructure in the country, it has betterpotential to grow sooner than many others.

Angola, usually the fastest grower in our Southern Africa report, has had a slight blip in Q209 that hasseen Mozambique outperform it. Angola’s mobile subscribers only expanded by 2.9% during the quarter,whereas Moxambique saw a 7.8% growth in its mobile market.

In fact, in a quarter in which many mobile markets have seen some unfortunate trends on growth rates andARPUs, things have looked pretty good for Mozambique, usually something of an underperformer thanksto its poor infrastructure and general poverty. Vodacom’s ARPUs, already about as low as they could go,actually improved.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary: SWOT Analysis; Southern Africa Telecommunications SWOT; Angola Business Environment SWOT; Botswana Business Environment SWOT; Mozambique Business Environment SWOT; Business Environment; Africa; Southern Africa
Table: Africa Telecoms Business Environment Ratings: Macroeconomic Data
Table: Southern Africa Macroeconomic Overview: Industry Forecast Scenario; Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts: Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts: Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts: Market Data Analysis; Mobile; Angola
Table: Angola Mobile Market, Q209: Botswana
Table: Botswana Mobile Market, Q209: Mauritius
Table: Mauritius Mobile Market, Q209: Mozambique
Table: Mozambique Mobile Market, Q209: Fixed Line And Internet; Angola; Botswana; Mauritius; Mozambique; Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Southern Africa Telecoms Regulators: Industry Developments; Angola; Botswana; Mauritius; Mozambique; Competitive Landscape; Key Players
Table: Key Players: Southern Africa Telecoms Sector: Company Monitor; Africa - A Key Region; Vendor Financing In Africa; Profiles; Unitel Angola; Mascom Botswana; Mauritius Telecom/Orange; mcel Mozambique; Appendix:; Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview; Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview: Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview: Internet Use
Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview: Macroeconomic Data Tables
Table: Angola - Economic Activity
Table: Botswana - Economic Activity
Table: Mozambique - Economic Activity
Table: Mauritius - Economic Activity: BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms: BMI Methodology; BMI Business Environment Ratings Methodology; Ratings Overview; Weighting; Weighting; Indicators; Indicators; BMI Forecast Modelling; How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts; Telecommunications Industry Forecast Table; Key Indicators; Business Environment Ratings; Sources

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