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Insurance Prospects

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Key Note Publications Ltd
Published: July 2008
Product Code: R310-1603
Description
The threats facing insurers operating in the UK include: a decline in public confidence in financial products; write-downs on credit losses; the risk of weather disasters; longevity affecting pension assumptions; and energy, food and mineral shortages that will restrict and may eventually reverse economic growth, leading to job losses and lower incomes accompanied by price inflation. These threats are doubly worrying because financial-services companies — banks and insurers — dominate the world economy. UK financial-services groups, including insurers, have suffered from the bad-credit virus that infected the globe in 2007 and 2008, but to differing extents.

The leading UK companies in long-term insurance in 2006 were Standard Life, Aviva's Norwich Union, Legal & General, Prudential and Lloyds TSB. The leaders in general insurance were Norwich Union, The Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS Group), AXA, Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA) and Zurich Financial Services. In health insurance, BUPA and AXA dominated. The most heavily advertised insurance product in the UK in the year ending December 2007 was the price-comparison site www.confused.com, owned by Admiral Group. Across all insurance brands, RBS Group's Direct Line spent the most on advertising to consumers during 2007.

According to Key Note's own research for this report, the British public rated leading insurance companies more highly in 2008 than in a comparable survey in 2002. Furthermore, more than seven people in ten regarded the insurance they bought as good value. The proportion of online purchasers of insurance had risen more than sevenfold between 2002 and 2008, to almost four people in ten. Price-comparison sites are an important feature of the market, used by in excess of one person in four. However, despite the improved ratings, nearly half of adults thought that insurance companies were too remote from their customers, and more than a quarter still preferred to buy insurance from a company with a local branch or representative.

In 2006, the 40% of UK households with the lowest incomes spent, on average, less than £17.50 a week on all types of insurance, including life and pensions. At the other end of the scale, the top 10% of households by income spent almost £110 a week on these products. Around 60% of all households have insufficient income to insure and invest adequately for the long term. Those ranking between the lower two-thirds and the top quarter of the income range generally try to keep themselves solvent, but many have been dipping into home equity to maintain their lifestyles. Their stretched finances have worrying implications for insurance sales. Nevertheless, the households in the top quarter of the income distribution are financially comfortable in the main, and many of these could increase their insurance expenditures.

The reports of credit-rating agencies influence investors. The agencies have suffered criticism for over-rating issuers of dubious financial paper, and by spring 2008 were implementing programmes to increase the reliability of their judgements. Their assessments are very important in the financial sector, because measures of the value of insurance and banking groups are complex and numerous, and are often opaque to investors and customers. In the EU, the lengthy process of improving insurance regulation was still under way in 2008, with the aim of increasing both stability and public confidence in the insurance sector. More and better financial education is necessary to equip the public to evaluate the insurers and banks that seek their custom.

The clogging of the world's financial networks with low-value and worthless debts is, in 2008, the major issue facing insurance companies. Within this caution-inducing context, insurance prospects are most attractive in South and East Asia (including China and India), in Latin America and in Eastern Europe. In the UK, the life, pensions and annuities sectors ought to be buoyant, because individuals are concerned about the prospect of poverty in retirement — but, for the majority of the population, a lack of disposable income to put aside is a significant issue. At the top of the income scale, however, self-invested personal pensions (SIPPs) have a bright future.

In general insurance, the categories of employers' and public liability, professional indemnity, and general insurance packages for business, are at the heart of growth, but motor and household insurance remain the `bread and butter' sectors for general insurers. The issue of affordable household cover for customers in zones of rising flood risk remains unresolved.

Unlimited international capital flows prevent national and regional populations from shaping economies to suit their own requirements, and in Key Note's opinion should be reined back. A healthy insurance sector needs a prudent, well-informed and solvent population, living in a stable society where the Government receives sufficient tax revenues to fund public services — and customers need to be confident that when they save over many years, or make a claim, their insurance company will provide what was originally projected or promised. Key Note believes that it is in insurers' own long-term interests to promote strong national economies, to aim for unspectacular but steady growth in clients' funds, and to be reliable rather than daringly expansionist.

In current conditions of commercial uncertainty, there is scope for a revival of mutual societies.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary

1. Introduction

THE TPOIC

OBJECTIVES

METHODOLOGY

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

PROBLEMS IN THE RESEARCH PROCESS

DEFINITION

2. Strategic Overview

MARKET DYNAMICS

The Business of Risk

Threats to Insurers

The Economy Depends on Finance

Dominant Companies Worldwide

Table 1: Rank Order of Leading Global Banks and Insurers by Market Value ($m), 2006

Figure 1: Rank Order of Leading Global Banks and Insurers by Market Value ($bn), 2006

Value Losses in the UK

Table 2: Change in Market Capitalisation of Leading UK Banks and Insurers (£m), 31st December 2006-20th March 2008

Figure 2: Change in Market Capitalisation of Leading UK Banks and Insurers (£m), 31st December 2006-20th March 2008

Soaring Remuneration For Directors

Table 3: Remuneration of Chief Executives and Chairmen of Selected Insurance Companies and Banks in the UK (£000 annually, excluding share options and pension funds), 2001 and 2007

Women's Slow, Slow Advance

Non-Executive Directors: Much Debate, Little Action

DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS

Financial Advisers Remain Pivotal

Table 4: New Regular-Premium Sales Reported by the Association of British Insurers by Product Category (£m), 2003-2007

Figure 3: New Regular-Premium Sales Reported by the Association of British Insurers by Product Category (£m), 2003-2007

Table 5: New Single-Premium Sales Reported by the Association of British Insurers by Product Category (£m), 2003-2007

Figure 4: New Single-Premium Sales Reported by the Association of British Insurers by Product Category (£m), 2003-2007

Overall Fall in the Number of Long-Term Insurance Policies

Table 6: UK Long-Term Insurance — Net Premium Income and Benefits Paid (£m and %), 2002-2006

Figure 5: UK Long-Term Insurance — Net Premium Income and Benefits Paid (£m), 2002-2006

Sector Leaders

ADVERTISING

Advance of Price-Comparison Sites

Main Media Advertising Expenditure Headed by The Royal Bank of Scotland Group

THE CONSUMER

Consumers' Opinions

Consumers' Purchases

Table 7: Weekly Household Spending on Insurance in the UK by Income Range (£), 2006

Table 8: Total Household Weekly Expenditure by Gross Income Decile in the UK (£), 2006

Household Overspending: Implications For Insurance

KEY POINTS

3. Marketing Trends

MOTOR AND HOME INSURANCE DOMINATE

Table 9: Insurance Products Receiving More Than £3m in Main Media Advertising Expenditure in the UK (£000), Year Ending December 2007

Table 10: Leading Categories of Insurance by Main Media Advertising Expenditure in the UK (£000), Year Ending December 2007

CONCENTRATED GROUPS

Table 11: Leading Insurance Brands by Main Media Advertising Expenditure in the UK (£000), Year Ending December 2007

Figure 6: Leading Insurance Brands by Main Media Advertising Expenditure in the UK (£m), Year Ending December 2007

BUNDLING

FRAGMENTATION

KEY POINTS

4. Threats and Opportunities

THREATS TO LONG-TERM INSURANCE AND RELATED PRODUCTS

Wild Swings in Fund Values

The Decline of Long-Term Salaried Careers

Equity Release in an Over-Valued Property Market

OPPORTUNITIES IN LONG-TERM INSURANCE

THREATS TO GENERAL INSURANCE AND TO HEALTH AND INCOME-PROTECTION INSURANCE

Natural Disasters

Litigious Risks to General Liability

Pressures on Consumer Spending

OPPORTUNITIES IN GENERAL INSURANCE, AND IN HEALTH AND INCOME-PROTECTION INSURANCE

Table 12: Net Written Premiums for UK General Insurance Business by Product Category (£m), 2002-2006

Figure 7: Net Written Premiums for UK General Insurance Business (£m), 2002-2006

KEY POINTS

5. An International Perspective

GLOBAL HEART

Western Europe Is the Centre of World Insurance

Table 13: Total World Insurance Premiums by Global Region ($m), 2006

Figure 8: Total World Insurance Premiums by Global Region ($m), 2006

Premiums Per Head Are Higher in North America

Table 14: Insurance Premiums Per Capita by Global Region ($), 2006

Figure 9: Insurance Premiums Per Capita by Global Region ($), 2006

Financing the Elderly, Worldwide

Table 15: Actual and Projected Percentage and Number of Population Aged 65 and Over in Selected Industrial Nations (% and 000), 2005 and 2020

Table 16: Actual and Projected Total Population and Number of Population Aged 65 and Over in Selected Industrial Nations (000), 2005 and 2020

Figure 10: Number of Population Aged 65 and Over, and Total Population, in Selected Industrial Nations (000), 2005

Figure 11: Projected Number of Population Aged 65 and Over, and Total Population, in Selected Industrial Nations (000), 2020

ENERGY COSTS MAY REVERSE GLOBALISATION

KEY POINTS

6. PEST Analysis

POLITICAL FACTORS

Welfare Dependency

ECONOMIC FACTORS

Emphasis on Shopping is Dependent on Wages and Salaries

Table 17: Changes in Main Components of Gross Domestic Product in the UK by Value at Current Prices, Not Seasonally Adjusted (£m), 1948, 1957, 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 and 2007

Figure 12: Changes in Main Components of Gross Domestic Product in the UK by Value at Current Prices, Not Seasonally Adjusted (£m), 1948, 1957, 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 and 2007

Spectre of Commodity-Price Inflation

Table 18: Price Changes For Selected Commodities (£, cents and $), 2nd April 2007-1st April 2008

Gambling on Future Property Prices to Spend Today

Majority of Taxpayers Earn Less Than £15,000 a Year After Tax

Table 19: Income Distribution in the UK (£, % and multiple), 1999/2000, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006

Financially Disadvantaged Women

Table 20: Number and Percentage of Taxpayers in the UK Population by Sex (000 and %), 2005/2006

Figure 13: Number of Taxpayers in the UK Female Population (000), 2005/2006

Figure 14: Number of Taxpayers in the UK Male Population (000), 2005/2006

Financial Groups Among the UK's Largest Companies

Table 21: The Importance of Financial-Services Companies in the UK's Top 25 by Market Value ($m), 30th March 2007

SOCIAL FACTORS

The Rise of the One-Person Household

Table 22: Number of Households in Great Britain Containing Only One Adult (million), 1971 and 2007

Figure 15: Number of Households in Great Britain Containing Only One Adult (million), 1971 and 2007

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

Technology as a Means of Getting Closer to Customers

KEY POINTS

7. Consumer Dynamics

OVERVIEW

Insurers' Popularity Has Improved

Table 23: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — Selected Leading Insurers (% of respondents and ratio), May 2002 and February 2008

Figure 16: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — Selected Leading Insurers' Improvement Ratios, February 2008 Compared With May 2002

Figure 17: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — Selected Leading Insurers (% of respondents), May 2002 and February 2008

Summary of Ratings for Selected Leading Insurers

Other Key Findings

SELECTED INSURERS' RATINGS BY SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP

Norwich Union Rated Highly Overall

Direct Line Popular Among People in Their Early-20s

Table 24: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — Norwich Union and Direct Line (% of respondents), February 2008

Approval For Prudential Among the Middle-Aged

Large Gain in Popularity For Legal & General

Table 25: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — Prudential and Legal & General (% of respondents), February 2008

Co-operative Insurance Services Well Respected Among Social Grade D

More Th>n Gains Praise From the Young

Table 26: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — Co-operative Insurance Services and More Th>n (% of respondents), February 2008

AXA Makes Gradual Advance in Popularity

Table 27: Rating as `a Very Good Insurance Company Overall' — AXA (% of respondents), February 2008

SELECTED INSURERS' RATINGS AMONG THE UPPER SOCIAL GRADES

Table 28: Rating as `Very Good Insurance Company Overall' Among Social Grade A — Selected Leading Insurers (% of respondents in social grade A), February 2008

SHOPPING AROUND FOR OTHER QUOTES

More Than Half of Respondents Always Shop Around

Table 29: Those Who Always Shop Around For Other Quotes at Renewal Time (% of respondents), February 2008

USE OF THE INTERNET FOR BUYING AND COMPARING INSURANCE PRODUCTS

Surge in Online Buyers

Use of Price-Comparison Sites High in Social Grade A

Table 30: Those Who Have Purchased Insurance Online in the Past Year and Those Who Have Chosen Insurance From an Online Price-Comparison Site in the Past Year (% of respondents), February 2008

IMPORTANCE OF LOCAL OFFICES VERSUS REMOTENESS OF INSURER

More Than a Third of the Elderly Prefer Local Offices

Almost Half of Adults Say Insurance Companies Are Too Remote

Table 31: Preference for Buying Insurance From a Company With a Local Office, and Opinion That Insurers Are Too Remote From Their Customers (% of respondents), February 2008

INSURANCE BUNDLED WITH BANK ACCOUNTS

Table 32: Those Who Have a Bank Account That Includes Some Free or Discounted Insurance (% of respondents), February 2008

CONSUMERS' PERCEPTION OF THEIR INSURANCE AS GOOD VALUE

Large Majority Say Their Insurance Is Good Value

Peak Age For Insurance Cover Is 45 to 54

Table 33: Consumers' Perception of Their Insurance as Good Value (% of respondents), February 2008

AFFORDABILITY OF INSURANCE

Unaffordability an Issue For Customers Aged Under 20 or Over 45

Table 34: Those Struggling to Pay For Their Existing Insurance (% of respondents), February 2008

KEY POINTS

8. Company Profiles

OVERVIEW

Improving Perceptions

Definition of `Turnover'

ALLIANZ

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 35: Financial Results for Allianz Insurance PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

AVIVA

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 36: Financial Results for Aviva PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

AXA

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 37: Financial Results for AXA Insurance PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

BARCLAYS

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 38: Financial Results for Barclays PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

BUPA

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 39: Financial Results for BUPA Insurance Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Table 40: Financial Results for The British United Provident Association Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

Canada Life

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 41: Financial Results for Canada Life Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2004-2006

Future Developments

CHESNARA

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 42: Financial Results for Chesnara PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

HBOS

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 43: Financial Results for HBOS PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

esure

Table 44: Financial Results for esure Insurance Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2004-2006

Table 45: Financial Results for esure Holdings Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2004-2006

St Andrew's Group

Future Development

HISCOX

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 46: Financial Results for Hiscox Insurance Company Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2004-2006

Future Developments

HSBC

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 47: Financial Results for HSBC Holdings PLC ($m, number, %, ratio and $), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

LEGAL & GENERAL

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 48: Financial Results for Legal & General Group PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

LIVERPOOL VICTORIA FRIENDLY SOCIETY

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Future Developments

LLOYD'S OF LONDON

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Future Developments

LLOYDS TSB GROUP

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 49: Financial Results for Lloyds TSB Group PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

NATIONAL FARMERS' UNION MUTUAL

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 50: Financial Results for The National Farmers' Union Mutual Insurance Society Ltd (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

PRUDENTIAL

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 51: Financial Results for Prudential PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

RSA

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 52: Financial Results for RSA Insurance Group PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Table 53: Financial Results for The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (£m, number, %, ratio and £), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Future Developments

STANDARD LIFE

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Future Developments

ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES

Corporate Strategy

Advertising and Distribution

Profitability

Future Developments

KEY POINTS

9. The Future

RISK, RATINGS, RESTRUCTURING AND REGULATION

Risk Wrapped in Mystery Parcels

The Case For Separating the Financial Connection Between Auditors and Their Clients

Toughening the Role of Non-Executive Directors

Self-Improvement For Ratings Agencies

VALUATION UNCERTAINTIES

Fair Value

Slow Progress of International Regulation

Impacts of IFRS, EEV and Basel II

Need For Wider Public Knowledge

COMMERCIAL ARENAS

Geographical Markets

Long-Term Insurance

General Insurance

Short-Term Outlook

WHY THE MASS MARKET MATTERS

KEY POINTS

11. Further Sources

Associations

Companies

Marketing/National Press and Information

General Sources

Government and Official Sources

Other Sources

Bisnode Sources

Ordering and More Information
Price and Delivery Options



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