UK Non-standard and Sub-prime Consumer Credit 2006

• Sizes the non-standard motor finance, the home collected credit and the non-standard credit card markets in the UK.
• Forecasts each sector to 2010, providing three contrasting scenarios.
• Gives insight into the future challenges of each market and how lenders could respond.
• Incorporates primary interviews from industry experts and secondary data from a wide range of sources.

• Understand how the market is changing and where the new opportunities lie.
• In-depth analysis of how lenders are coping with a number of issues allowing you to reassess your strategy.
• Plan your future business strategy in confidence using Datamonitor's five-year market forecasts.

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

Sizing the UK non-standard population in 2005

Datamonitor estimates that the non-standard population stood at 9.1 million in 2005

Underlying macro-economic factors ultimately drive the non-standard population

Social trends also play a key role in driving the non-standard population

The non-standard population will rise gradually to 9.42 million by 2010

Overview of the UK consumer credit market in 2005

The consumer credit market delivered a subdued performance in 2005

Bad debts are on the rise as consumer debt continues to creep upwards

Consumer debt continued its ascending trend in 2005

Lenders are now feeling the strain as bad debts are rising

The non-standard motor finance market

Non-standard motor finance continued to fall in 2005

For many providers, the non-standard motor finance market is not an easy space to be in at present

Yet the non-standard market is likely to grow in the future

The home collected credit market

While the market grew in 2005, providers nevertheless experienced another difficult year

Home collected credit balances outstanding reached £1.2 billion in 2005, but the market remains sluggish

The home collected credit market continues to be dominated by the 'big four'

In addition, the home collected credit market is under increased pressure from regulation

Most recently, the Competition Commission found that the market was uncompetitive and needed improvement

With a slew of significant changes ahead, providers face a tough future

Forecasting the home collected credit market

The non-standard credit card market

The market is composed of mainstream and specialist providers

Barclaycard, Capital One, Citibank, HSBC, and RBS are all active in this market

Specialist issuers target the lower end of the non-standard spectrum

The non-standard market became more difficult for mainstream lenders in 2005

Growth was not as strong in the non-standard credit card market in 2005 as the previous year

Mainstream lenders tightened their lending criteria but many still saw bad debts surge

Sub-prime specialist lenders are benefiting as a result

Datamonitor forecasts strong growth in the non-standard credit card market

CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION

What is this report about?

Who is the target reader?

How do use this report?

CHAPTER 3 SIZING THE UK NON-STANDARD POPULATION IN 2005

Introduction

Defining the non-standard population

Lending products: altering the dynamics of demand and supply

Subjectivity is a necessary evil

Alternative commonly used terms

Sub-prime is a segment of non-standard

Report coverage: age and affordability

Datamonitor estimates that the non-standard population stood at 9.1 million in 2005

A combination of macro-economic and social factors is responsible for a declining non-standard population in recent years

Underlying macro-economic factors ultimately drive the non-standard population

Unemployment is now rising

Interest rates play a pivotal role in driving the non-standard population

Mortgage arrears and repossessions have risen recently

2005 witnessed the first rise in registered CCJs in fifteen years

Personal bankruptcies hit a record high in 2005

Social trends also play a key role in driving the non-standard population

According to Datamonitor's estimations, just over two million individuals were without a bank account in 2005 in the UK

Self-employment numbers have been increasing particularly strongly in recent years

The number of income support recipients has fallen moderately

The non-standard population will rise gradually to 9.42 million by 2010

CHAPTER 4 OVERVIEW OF THE UK CONSUMER CREDIT MARKET IN 2005

Introduction

The consumer credit market delivered a subdued performance in 2005

Consumer credit balances outstanding continued to grow in 2005 but gross advances dropped slightly

In terms of balances outstanding, cards and loans account for the bulk of consumer credit

Credit card and unsecured personal loan balances outstanding increased in 2005, albeit at a slower rate

On the whole, unsecured personal loans have gained market share while credit cards have lost share

In terms of gross advances, credit cards were the hardest hit in 2005

Yet credit cards have grown their market share most since 2001

Bad debts are on the rise as consumer debt continues to creep upwards

Consumer debt continued its ascending trend in 2005

Lenders are now feeling the strain as bad debts are rising

Consequently, some lenders are introducing measures to manage bad debts and improve the quality of their unsecured lending book

In addition, PPI is under investigation

The PPI market is facing increased scrutiny from regulatory bodies

PPI is an important income stream for prime and non-standard lenders

PPI is a lucrative business for banks

Hence, increased regulatory pressure in the PPI sector may see lenders lose in terms of profitability

For more information....

CHAPTER 5 THE NON-STANDARD MOTOR FINANCE MARKET

Introduction

The total UK motor finance market faced another difficult year in 2005

The motor finance sector continued to struggle in 2005

Balances outstanding in the point of sale new car finance market declined in 2005

Gross lending in both the used car and new car finance markets fell in 2005

Hire purchase agreements in both the new and used car finance markets had a difficult year in 2005

A number of factors account for this decline

Car sales have not performed well over the past five years and declined again in 2005

Average car prices have fallen in the long-term

There is evidence that the poor performance of the point of sale motor finance sector is a long-term issue of falling penetration, rather than cyclical movement

Non-standard motor finance continued to fall in 2005

Datamonitor uses five steps to size the value of the non-standard motor finance market

Step 1: Estimating the size of the non-standard population and the number of non-standard households in the UK

Step 2: Estimating the level of car ownership among non-standard households

Step 3: Splitting total non-standard car purchases into new and used cars

Step 4: Calculating total non-standard car purchases

Step 5: Estimating the size of the non-standard motor finance market

The non-standard motor finance market experienced another decrease in 2005

The non-standard motor finance market has put in a poor performance in recent years, even in comparison to the mainstream market

There are a number of explanations as to why the non-standard market performed so badly over the past five years

For many providers, the non-standard motor finance market is not an easy space to be in at present

Non-standard lenders are being squeezed by competition

There are a number of different business models in the non-standard motor finance market

Squeezed by captives and direct providers, independents have had to explore new markets, such as the non-standard sector

Direct providers continue to offer another competitive threat

Yet those providers supplying both cars and finance also suffered at the hands of competition in 2005

Yes Car Credit's closure also raises the question of viability for similar providers

Rising bad debt has hit many providers

Moreover, regulation has also dented profits

Motor financiers are losing income because of outdated regulations on voluntary terminations

Changes in early settlement rules have affected point of sale motor finance providers' profits

Moreover, the amended CCA has led to a longer sales process

PPI income has fallen following the new FSA regulations

Yet providers continue to invest in the market, showing that it remains attractive to some

New entrants have come into the market

Blue Motor Finance entered the market in January 2006

Provident Financial launched yesinsurance.co.uk in August 2005

Santander Consumer Finance UK launched into the prime motor finance market

Lenders are investing in technology in order to differentiate themselves from competitors

Providers are investing in decision systems in order to gain business

In addition, some non-standard lenders are now investing more in the Internet

Indeed, the non-standard market is likely to grow in the future

Datamonitor's methodology quantifies motor finance penetration among non-standard consumers

In Datamonitor's opinion, the non-standard motor finance market will grow at a quicker rate over the next five years than it has over the previous five years

Non-standard motor finance gross advances will increase by an average of 4.3 per cent each year to 2010

Under a best case scenario for the future of the UK economy, the non-standard motor finance market will struggle compared to the market as a whole

Non-standard motor finance market is forecasted to perform slightly worse under these assumptions

Under a worst case scenario, the non-standard motor finance market will perform well

Non-standard motor finance gross advances will increase by 7.1 per cent per year under a worst case scenario

CHAPTER 6 THE HOME COLLECTED CREDIT MARKET

The non-standard unsecured personal loans market has grown rapidly in recent years, but the sub-prime element is still very small

The home collected credit market is a sub-sector of the non-standard unsecured personal loans market

Sizing the non-standard unsecured personal loans market

The non-standard unsecured personal loans market is worth £27.3 billion

Much of the market is composed of self-employed individuals, rather than sub-prime individuals

While the home credit market grew in 2005, providers nevertheless experienced another difficult year

Datamonitor's methodology for sizing the home collected credit market is based on two measures

Please note that accounting standards have changed since the last publication of this report, causing some market figures to change

Home collected credit balances outstanding reached £1.2 billion in 2005, but the market remains sluggish

Indeed, lenders found 2005 yet another very difficult year

Such a lackluster performance is reinforced when compared to that of the non-standard unsecured personal loans market

The home collected credit market continues to be dominated by the 'big four'

However, the big four's share of the market has decreased over the past five years

But the big four have maintained their position at the top for many years

Many providers have struggled in recent years

A number of factors have made for a tougher market

The market has become increasingly mature

Home credit providers have seen an increase in bad debts particularly over 2005

Customers increasingly depend on more than one provider for their credit needs

In addition, regulation has made it more expensive to operate in the market

As a result, the major lenders continue to reduce their exposure to the market

Provident continues to diversify into other non-standard credit markets

S&U continues to diversify its non-standard consumer credit portfolio

Meanwhile, Cattles is focusing upon building up its direct repayment division

London Scottish is also moving away from its door-to-door lending business

In addition, the home collected credit market is under increased pressure from regulation

The home collected credit market has received a large amount of regulatory scrutiny in recent years

2003 saw the first damning report on home collected credit appear

The market also falls under the Consumer Credit Bill

In addition, the market is now under scrutiny by the Competitition Commission

Most recently, the Competition Commission found that the market was uncompetitive and needed improvement

The Competition Commission found a number of negative characteristics prevalent in the market

The Competition Commission's possible remedies include data sharing and providing price information

The CC will consult with lenders before publishing its final report in July

With a slew of significant changes ahead, providers face a tough future ahead

The industry feels that regulation simply poses too much of an administrative and financial burden

Many believe that small to medium sized providers are beginning to leave the market

In the end, it could be that consumers pay the highest price

Yet besides credit cards, other external sources of credit remain a very limited threat to the home collected credit market

Government initiatives still pose little competitive threat

There are a number of Government initiatives to assist the financially excluded and to lessen their reliance on home collected credit

Overdrafts and basic bank accounts to non-standard individuals are not a replacement to home credit

Credit unions do not pose a real competitive threat just yet

However, alternative commercial sources of credit have the potential to pose greater competitive threat

Payday loans could potentially offer a greater competitive threat in the future

Cheque cashers represent a limited threat

Pawnbrokers are a threat of sorts

Forecasting the home collected credit market

Datamonitor's methodology calculates home collected credit's penetration of the non-standard population

In Datamonitor's opinion, the UK home collected credit market will grow at a very slow pace

According to Datamonitor's neutral forecasting scenario, the home collected credit market will grow on average by 1.1 per cent each year to 2010

Under a best case scenario for the future of the UK economy, the home collected credit market is forecasted to decline significantly

Under Datamonitor's optimistic forecasting scenario, the home collected credit market will decline on average by 3.0 per cent each year to 2010

However, should the economy take a real turn for the worse, the home collected credit market will reap the benefits

Under the pessimistic forecasting scenario, the home collected credit market will grow on average by 3.3 per cent each year to 2010

CHAPTER 7 THE NON-STANDARD CREDIT CARD MARKET

Unlike the mainstream credit card market, the non-standard market provides clear opportunities for growth

Saturation and competition in the mainstream market have made the relative profitability of this segment even greater

This competitive pressure has driven down price and, with it, issuer margins

Mainstream issuers stand to benefit from a combination of higher margins, revenues and future cross-sales

Non-standard credit card lending accounted for 9.9 million cards in issue in 2005

Datamonitor's estimation methodology

The non-standard credit card market accounts for 13.7 per cent of the total UK credit card market

The self-employed population accounts for over half of the non-standard credit card market

The rest of the non-standard market is divided unevenly among the remaining groups

The non-standard credit card market amounted to £12.6 billion in 2005

Datamonitor's estimation methodology

Datamonitor estimates that the non-standard credit card market was worth £12.6 billion in 2005

The majority of this is accounted for by the self-employed

The market is composed of mainstream and specialist providers

Barclaycard, Capital One, Citibank, HSBC, and RBS are all active in this market

Several mainstream players have acquired specialist lenders in order to gain the expertise needed to issue in this market

There are several advantages to this approach, as compared to direct market entry

Mainstream players have used different branding strategies to enter this market

Market entry through a subsidiary allows mainstream issuers to protect their prime brand/s

However, Capital One and Citibank have stayed faithful to their prime brands

Other specialist issuers target the lower end of the non-standard spectrum

Profile: SAV Credit

Profile: Vanquis Bank

The non-standard market became more difficult for mainstream lenders in 2005

Growth was not as strong in the non-standard credit card market in 2005 as in the previous year

Mainstream lenders tightened their lending criteria but many still saw bad debts surge

Sub-prime specialist lenders are benefiting as a result

For example, Vanquis has continued to grow rapidly

SAV Credit also continues to expand

As a result, sub-prime specialist providers are confident about the future

It is likely that other firms will eventually enter the non-standard market

MasterCard launched a pre-paid card targeting the UK sub-prime market in September 2005

Datamonitor forecasts strong growth in the non-standard credit card market

Datamonitor's five-year forecast for the non-standard credit card market

Datamonitor's estimation methodology

Datamonitor forecasts the non-standard credit card market to be worth £17.5 billion in 2010

Growth will be fastest among those with checkered or limited credit histories

A number of factors are forecast to drive growth in the non-standard credit card market

CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX

Supplementary data

Data tables relating to Chapter 3: Sizing the UK Non-standard Population in 2005

Data tables relating to Chapter 4: Overview of the UK Consumer Credit Market in 2005

Data tables relating to Chapter 5: The Non-standard Motor Finance Market

Data tables relating to Chapter 6: The Home Collected Credit Market

Data tables relating to Chapter 7: The Non-standard Credit Card Market

Definitions

AAGR

Balances outstanding

CAGR

Exclusive distribution

Gross advances

Hire purchase

Installment credit

Intermediaries or purchasing agents

Leasing

Mail order

Personal Contract Purchase (PCP)

Personal Loans (PoS)

Retail finance

Selective distribution

Store cards

Unsecured personal loan

Research methodology

Relevant readings

Reports

Future readings

Reports

Relevant links

Datamonitor's custom research capabilities

The Retail Banking team

How to contact experts in your industry

List of Tables

Table 1: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer credit market, 2001-2005

Table 2: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer credit market, 2001-2005

Table 3: Consumer credit balances outstanding by product, 2001-2005

Table 4: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by product line, 2001-2005

Table 5: Consumer credit gross advances split by product, 2001-2005

Table 6: Market share of gross advances in the consumer credit market by product line, 2001-2005e

Table 7: Consumer debt write-offs by banks by lending type, 2004-05

Table 8: New car finance gross advances by product line, 2001-2005

Table 9: Used car finance gross advances by product line, 2001-2005

Table 10: New and used private car sales in the UK, 2001-2005

Table 11: Responses to the question 'was the car you bought or leased new or used' by socio-economic group, 2001

Table 12: Number of non-standard car sales, 2001-2005

Table 13: New, used and total cars sold to non-standard buyers, compared to all car buyers, 2001-2005

Table 14: Used car sales by channel, 2001-2005

Table 15: Value of the market for non-standard point-of-sale motor finance (in terms of gross advances), 2001-2005

Table 16: Forecasted non-standard motor finance market gross advances compared to total motor finance market gross advances under Datamonitor's neutral scenario, 2004-2009f

Table 17: Forecasted non-standard motor finance market gross advances compared to total motor finance market gross advances under a best case scenario, 2005-2010f

Table 18: Forecasted non-standard motor finance market gross advances compared to total motor finance market gross advances under a worst case scenario, 2005-2010f

Table 19: UK home collected credit balances outstanding by competitor, 2001-2005e

Table 20: Administrative timetable for the Competition Commission's inquiry into the home collected credit market, 2006

Table 21: SAV Credit fact file, 2006

Table 22: Vanquis Bank fact file, 2006

Table 23: UK non-standard population, 2001-2005e

Table 24: UK Non-standard population forecasts according to Datamonitor's View scenario, 2005e-2010f

Table 25: Debt write-offs by banks (individuals), Q1 2004-Q4 2005

Table 26: New and used car motor finance balances outstanding, 2001-2005

Table 27: New and used car motor finance gross advances, 2001-2005

Table 28: Used cars sales by distribution channels, 2001-2005

Table 29: Mainstream and non-standard unsecured personal loan gross advances and balances outstanding, 2001-2005

Table 30: The home collected credit market gross advances and balances outstanding, 2001-2005

Table 31: Non-standard unsecured personal loans and home collected credit balances outstanding, 2001-2005

Table 32: Estimated market share of the four leading providers in the home collected credit market, 2000-2004

Table 33: Indexed balances outstanding of the leading home collected credit providers, 2001-2005

Table 34: Compound annual growth in gross advances by lending product, 2001-2005

Table 35: Balances outstanding by division, Provident Financial, 2002-2005

Table 36: Gross customer account receivables and estimated home collected credit balances outstanding, Cattles, 2001-2005

Table 37: Indexed customer credit receivables by type of repayment, Cattles, 2002-2005

Table 38: London Scottish gross customers' account receivables and estimated home collection balances outstanding, 2001-2005

Table 39: Datamonitor's neutral forecasts for the home collected credit market, 2005-2010f

Table 40: Datamonitor's optimistic forecasts for the home collected credit market, 2005-2010f

Table 41: Datamonitor's pessimistic forecasts for the home collected credit market, 2005-2010f

Table 42: Estimated number of cards in issue and average number of cards per person for the non-standard population by reason of being non-standard, 2005e

Table 43: Estimated size of the UK non-standard credit card market, segmented by individuals that are self-employed with no other reason to be non-standard and other non-standard, 2003e-2005e

Table 44: Consumer debt write-offs by banks by lending type, 1996-2005

Table 45: Forecast size of the UK non-standard credit card market, segmented by individuals that are self-employed with no other reason to be non-standard and other non-standard, 2005e-2010f

List of Figures

Figure 1: The UK non-standard population continues to decline, falling to an estimated 9.1 million in 2005, 2001-2005e

Figure 2: According to Datamonitor's neutral forecast, the non-standard population will gradually increase to 9.42 million by 2010, 2005e-2010f

Figure 3: Balances outstanding in the consumer credit market continued to grow but gross advances fell slightly in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 4: The average consumer debt increased by 5.0 per cent to £4,122 in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 5: Unsecured debt write-offs have accelerated in 2005, 2004/05 Q1 - 2004/05 Q4

Figure 6: The value of point of sale motor finance extended to non-standard buyers has fallen considerably over the last five years, 2001-2005

Figure 7: According to Datamonitor's assumptions, the non-standard motor finance market will grow on average by 4.3 per cent each year under this scenario, 2005-2010f

Figure 8: On the whole, both gross advances and balances outstanding have stagnated in the home collected credit market in recent years, though 2005 saw a small lift, 2001-2005

Figure 9: Under Datamonitor's neutral scenario, the home collected credit market is forecasted to grow by an average of 1.1 per cent each year to 2010, 2005-2010f

Figure 10: The non-standard credit card market experienced growth in 2005, but not as much as the previous year, 2003e-2005e

Figure 11: Datamonitor covers the non-standard and sub-prime lending market in 2006 with a suite of three published reports

Figure 12: Datamonitor's definition of non-standard

Figure 13: A certain degree of subjectivity is needed in a definition of the non-standard population because some mainstream lenders are inevitably willing to accept greater risk than others

Figure 14: Common terms used to refer to the circumstance defined by Datamonitor as "non-standard"

Figure 15: Sub-prime consumers represent a segment of the non-standard population

Figure 16: The UK non-standard population continues to decline, falling to an estimated 9.1 million in 2005, 2001-2005e

Figure 17: According to Datamonitor's neutral forecast, the non-standard population will gradually increase to 9.42 million by 2010, 2005e-2010f

Figure 18: Balances outstanding in the consumer credit market continued to grow but gross advances fell slightly in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 19: Unsecured personal loans were the fastest growing product line in balances outstanding over the last five years, 2001-2005

Figure 20: Unsecured personal loans gained an estimated 5.8 percentage points, whereas credit cards lost share from 2001 to 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 21: A flat performance for credit cards in 2005 in terms of gross lending, whereas overdrafts continued to thrive, 2001-2005

Figure 22: Credit cards has grown its market share by 5.6 percentage points from 2001 to 2005 in gross advances, 2001-2005e

Figure 23: The average consumer debt increased by 5.0 per cent to £4,122 in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 24: Unsecured debt write-offs have accelerated in 2005, 2004/05 Q1 - 2004/05 Q4

Figure 25: Outstanding balances in both new and used car finance fell in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 26: Gross lending in both the new and used car finance markets declined in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 27: Although still the dominant finance product in the new car finance market, gross advances for hire purchase continue to fall, 2001-2005

Figure 28: Hire purchase remains by far the dominant product line in the used car finance market, 2001-2005

Figure 29: New and used car sales both fell in 2005 and have put in poor performances over the past five years, 2001-2005

Figure 30: Private used car sales amounted to 3.5 million out of a total 7.5 million used car sales in the UK in 2005, 2001-2005

Figure 31: Average new and used car prices have fallen since 2001, 2001-2005

Figure 32: The performance of the motor finance market is related to the volume of cars sold, 2001 to 2005e

Figure 33: FLA data shows that penetration of point of sale motor finance is declining, 1997 and 2005

Figure 34: Datamonitor's methodology for estimating the size of the non-standard motor finance market

Figure 35: Methodology used to calculate the number of non-standard households in the UK

Figure 36: The self-employed population account for almost 43 per cent of all non-standard households with access to a car, 2005

Figure 37: Car sales to non-standard individuals relative to the market as a whole recovered somewhat over 2005, 2001-2005e

Figure 38: The value of point of sale motor finance extended to non-standard buyers has fallen considerably over the last five years, 2001-2005

Figure 39: The non-standard motor finance market has failed to recover from the slump of 1999-2000, 1999-2005

Figure 40: Motor finance providers differentiate themselves according to distance from point of sale and exposure to credit risk, 2006

Figure 41: Provident's new yesinsurance.co.uk website

Figure 42: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's neutral forecasting scenario

Figure 43: According to Datamonitor's assumptions, the non-standard motor finance market will grow on average by 4.3 per cent each year under this scenario, 2005-2010f

Figure 44: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's optimistic forecasting scenario

Figure 45: According to this scenario, the non-standard motor finance market will record average growth of 2.8 per cent per year but perform worse than the mainstream motor finance market, 2005-2010f

Figure 46: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's pessimistic scenario

Figure 47: Under the pessimistic scenario, the non-standard motor finance market is forecasted to account for an increasingly bigger slice of the total market, 2005-2010f

Figure 48: The non-standard unsecured personal loans market is more evenly distributed among the different sub-groups of the non-standard population than that witnessed in other non-standard lending markets, 2005

Figure 49: The non-standard sector now accounts for 27.2 per cent of the total UK unsecured personal loan market, 2001-2005

Figure 50: On the whole, both gross advances and balances outstanding have stagnated in the home collected credit market in recent years, though 2005 saw a small lift, 2001-2005

Figure 51: The non-standard personal loan market has far outpaced the home collected credit market in terms of balances outstanding growth, 2001-2005

Figure 52: While the market share of the 'big four' has slipped, they still account for over 80 per cent of the total market, 2005e

Figure 53: Together, the big four have lost market share over the past five years to providers populating the rest of the market, 2001 & 2005

Figure 54: The two biggest home collected credit providers struggled during the past couple of years, particularly Cattles, 2001-2005

Figure 55: Compared to other lending markets, the home collected market failed to record any growth at all over the last five years, 2001-2005

Figure 56: Provident's international home collected credit division and Vanquis Bank have recorded the biggest increases in balances outstanding, 2002-2005

Figure 57: Cattles is reducing its home collected credit balances while expanding in other credit markets, 2001-2005

Figure 58: There has been a notable shift in Cattles' customer credit receivables away from home collected credit to direct repayment, 2002-2005

Figure 59: The average advance and the number of Cattles' home collected credit customers has been decreasing steadily in recent years, 2003-2005

Figure 60: On the whole, the proportion for which home collection accounts for London Scottish's total customer receivables has decreased, 2001-2005

Figure 61: Some of the current legislative requirements affecting the home collected credit market, 2006

Figure 62: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's neutral forecasting scenario, 2001-2010f

Figure 63: Under Datamonitor's neutral scenario, the home collected credit market is forecasted to grow by an average of 1.1 per cent each year to 2010, 2005-2010f

Figure 64: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's optimistic forecasting scenario, 2001-2010f

Figure 65: According to Datamonitor's optimistic scenario, the home collected credit market is forecasted to decline by 3.0 per cent each year to 2010, 2005-2010f

Figure 66: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's pessimistic forecasting scenario, 2001-2010f

Figure 67: According to Datamonitor's pessimistic scenario, the home collected credit market is forecasted to grow on average by 3.3 per cent each year to 2010, 2005-2010f

Figure 68: Heavy competition in the UK credit card market has driven down standard and introductory APRs, Jan 1998-Feb 2006

Figure 69: The non-standard credit card market remains far less developed than the mainstream market, 2004e-2005e

Figure 70: There is now slightly more than one credit card in issue per non-standard individual, 2004e-2005e

Figure 71: The self-employed population accounts for over half of the credit cards in issue to the non-standard population, 2005e

Figure 72: The unemployed have the lowest level of cardholding per head, while those in full time employment enjoy the highest, 2005e

Figure 73: The total non-standard credit card market was worth £11.9 billion in 2004e, 2003e-2005e

Figure 74: Four of the top seven largest issuers in the UK market are currently active in the non-standard market, 2006

Figure 75: Mainstream issuers entering the non-standard market have employed one of two branding strategies

Figure 76: The non-standard credit card market experienced growth in 2005, but not as much as the previous year, 2003e-2005e

Figure 77: Debt write-offs have particularly affected the credit card market, 1996-2005

Figure 78: Datamonitor forecasts the non-standard credit card market to continue to grow over time, with transaction values reaching £16.7 billion in 2009f, 2004e-2009f

Figure 79: Datamonitor's core consulting capabilities