Printing Forecast 2007

Executive Summary

The Print and Prepress Markets

Economic Background

General Economic Trends

The Printing Industry Today

Challenges, Opportunities, and Investments

New Equipment Investment

General Printing Industry Trends

The Design & Production Markets Today

Business Conditions

Current Business Conditions

Challenges, Opportunities, and Investments

Key Design & Production Trends

The Publishing Markets Today

Business Conditions

Challenges, Opportunities, and Investments

Key Publishing Trends

Close-Up View of Some Key Industry Trends

Integrated Automation

O.shore Printing

Media Mix

Digital and Variable-Data Printing

The Industry Measure Printing 2007 Forecast

What’s Hot-ish

What’s Not

Six Forces to Be Reckoned With

Notes and References

Introduction: The Singularity Is Near

The Kids Are Alright

The 2007 Printing Forecast

The Print and Prepress Markets

How This Report Is Organized

For More Information

Notes and References

Section 1: The Market Today

Economic Background

General Economic Trends

Notable News

Notes and References

Section 2: The Printing Industry Today

The Printing Markets

Commercial Printers

Quick Printers

Book Printers

Periodical/Magazine Printers

Prepress Services

Digital Printers

Business Conditions

TWGA Printing Business Conditions Index

Current Business Conditions

Expected Business Conditions

Business Challenges

Sales Opportunities

Planned Investments

New Equipment Investment

Investment Projections

General Printing Industry Trends

Section 3: The Design & Production Markets Today

The Creative Markets

Graphic Designers

Advertising Agencies

Corporate Design Departments

Commercial Photographers

Business Conditions

Business Conditions Index

Current Business Conditions

Expected Business Conditions

Business Challenges

Sales Opportunities

Planned Investments

Key Design & Production Trends

Section 4: The Publishing Markets Today

The Publishing Markets

Book Publishers

Magazine Publishers

Catalog Publishers

Business Conditions

Business Conditions Index

Current Business Conditions

Expected Business Conditions

Business Challenges

Sales Opportunities

Planned Investments

Key Publishing Trends

Section 5: Close-up View Of Some Key Industry Trends

Integrated Automation

Integrated Automation Conclusions

Offshore Printing

Design & Production Establishments

Publishers

Print and Prepress Providers

O.shoring Conclusions

Media Mix

Use Now

Becoming More Important

Less Important

Media Mix Conclusions

Digital Printing and Variable Data Printing

Digital and Variable-Data Printing Conclusions

Notes and References

Section 6: The Industry Measure Printing 2007 Forecast

What’s Hot and What’s Not

What’s Hot(ish)

What’s Not

Six Forces to Be Reckoned With

Stimulating Demand for Print

Long Tail Economics

The Continued Migration to Digital

Value-Added Services

Integrated Automation

O.shoring

Forecast By Market

Sheetfed O.set Shops

Quick Print Shops

Nonheatset Web Printers

Heatset Web Printers

Prepress Firms

Notes and References

Appendix: Twga Methodology

TrendWatch Graphic Arts Today

Historic Background

Survey Design

Survey Sampling, Incentives and Response Rates

Sampling Strategy

Non-Response Bias

Other Background Research

Who’s Who at TrendWatch

TrendWatch Report Editorial and Production

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Value of Industry Shipments, NAICS 323 (Printing and Related Activities), 1997-2005

Figure 2: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index (BCI), Print and Prepress Establishments, 1995-2006

Figure 3: Industry Measure Business Optimism Index (BOI), Print and Prepress Establishments, 1995-2006

Figure 4: Does Your Company Plan to Purchase Any New Printing Equipment (Offset or Digital) in the Next 12-18 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 5: If Yes, Will Your New Equipment Purchase Be New or Used? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 6: If Yes, Is Your New Equipment Intended to Add Additional Capacity or Replace Currently Existing Printing Equipment? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 7: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index, Design & Production Establishments by Market, 1996-2006

Figure 8: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index, Publishers by Market, 1997-2006

Figure 9: Which of the Following Actions Has Your Company Taken Regarding Implementing an Automated Production Workflow (like Heidelberg Prinect, Agfa Apogee, Creo Prinergy, etc.)? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 10: “Broadening Digital Printing Services” as a Sales Opportunity, All Print and Prepress Establishments, 2003-2006

Figure 11: Have You Worked on Personalized, Customized or Variable-Data Jobs in the Past 12 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 12: How Would You Classify Those Jobs? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 13: Media that Would Be Missed the Most by U.S. Kids and Teens, by Age, April 2006

Figure 14: Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, in Current Dollars and in Chained 2000 Dollars, 1997-2005

Figure 15: Labor Productivity, NAICS 323 (Printing and Related Activities), 1997-2004

Figure 16: Industrial Capacity, All Industries vs. Printing Industry, 1997-2006

Figure 17: Capacity Utilization, All Industries vs. Printing Industry, 1997-2006

Figure 18: Value of Industry Shipments, NAICS 323 (Printing and Related Activities), 1997-2005

Figure 19: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index (BCI), Print and Prepress Establishments, 1995-2006

Figure 20: “Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 21: “We Expect Business Conditions in the Next 12 Months To Be…,” All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 22: Industry Measure Business Optimism Index (BOI), Print and Prepress Establishments, 1995-2006

Figure 23: Top 10 Business Challenges, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 24: Top 5 Business Challenges Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 1995-Fall 2006

Figure 25: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 26: Top 5 Sales Opportunities Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 1995-Fall 2006

Figure 27: Top 10 Planned Investments, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 28: Top 5 Planned Investments Historical Comparison, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 1995-Fall 2006

Figure 29: Does Your Company Plan to Purchase Any New Printing Equipment (Offset or Digital) in the Next 12-18 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 30: If Yes, Will Your New Equipment Purchase Be New or Used? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 31: If Yes, Is Your New Equipment Intended to Add Additional Capacity or Replace Currently Existing Printing Equipment? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 32: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index, Design & Production Establishments by Market, 1996-2006

Figure 33: In the Last 12 Months, Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been 2006

Figure 34: We Expect Business Conditions for Our Firm in the Next 12 Months to Be Summer 2006

Figure 35: Industry Measure Business Optimism Index, Design & Production Establishments by Market, 1996-2006

Figure 36: Top 10 Business Challenges, All Design & Production Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 37: Top 5 Challenges Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, 1997-2006, All Design & Production Establishments

Figure 38: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, All Design & Production Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 39: Top 5 Sales Opportunities Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Design & Production Establishments

Figure 40: Top 10 Planned Investments, All Design & Production Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 41: Top 5 Planned Investments Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Design & Production Establishments

Figure 42: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index, Publishers by Market, 1997-2006

Figure 43: In the Last 12 Months, Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been

Figure 44: We Expect Business Conditions for Our Firm in the Next 12 Months to Be

Figure 45: Industry Measure Business Optimism Index, Publishers by Market, 1997-2006(Spring 1997=100)

Figure 46: Top 10 Business Challenges, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 47: Top 5 Business Challenges Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Publishers, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 48: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 49: Top 5 Sales Opportunities Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Publishers, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 50: Top 10 Planned Investments, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 51: Top 5 Planned Investments Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Publishers, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 52: Which of the Following Actions Has Your Company Taken Regarding Implementing an Automated Production Workflow (like Heidelberg Prinect, Agfa Apogee, Creo Prinergy, etc.)? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 53: If Your Company Has Not Implemented an Integrated, Automated Workflow System, Does Your Company Have Any Plans to Implement One in the Next 12 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 54: Has Your Company Implemented or Planned to Implement a Management Information System (MIS)? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 55: Has Your Business Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside of North America in the Past 12 Months? All Design & Production Establishments, Winter 2005/2006

Figure 56: Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? All Design & Production Establishments, Winter 2005/2006

Figure 57: Has Your Business Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside of North America in the Past 12 Months? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 58: Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 59: Has Your Business Partnered/Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside North America in the Past 12 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2005

Figure 60: If No, Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2005

Figure 61: Which Media Channels Do You Use Now to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 62: Which Media Channels Do You See as Becoming More Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 63: Which Media Channels Do You See as Becoming Less Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 64: “Broadening Digital Printing Services” as a Sales Opportunity, All Print and Prepress Establishments, 2003-2006

Figure 65: “Digital Color Variable Printing Jobs” as a Sales Opportunity, All Print and Prepress Establishments, 2000-2006

Figure 66: Have You Worked on Personalized, Customized or Variable-Data Jobs in the Past 12 Months? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 67: How Would You Classify Those Jobs? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Figure 68: What Is the Primary Printing Technology Used to Output These Jobs? All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Table of Tables

Table 1: Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, in Current Dollars and in Chained 2000 Dollars, 1997-2005

Table 2: Top 10 Business Challenges, Sales Opportunities, and Planned Investments, All Print and Prepress Establishments, Fall 2006

Table 3: Top 10 Business Challenges, Sales Opportunities, and Planned Investments, All Design & Production Establishments, Summer 2006

Table 4: Top 10 Business Challenges, Sales Opportunities, and Planned Investments, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Table 5: Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, in Current Dollars and in Chained 2000 Dollars, 1997-2005

Table 6: “Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 7: “We Expect Business Conditions in the Next 12 Months To Be…,” Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 8: Top 10 Business Challenges, Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 9: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 10: Top 10 Planned Investments, Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 11: Does Your Company Plan to Purchase Any New Printing Equipment (Offset or Digital) in the Next 12-18 Months? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 12: If Yes, Will Your New Equipment Purchase Be New or Used? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 13: If Yes, Is Your New Equipment Intended to Add Additional Capacity or Replace Currently Existing Printing Equipment? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 14: Industry Measure Investment Projections, All Print and Prepress Establishments, 2007

Table 15: In the Last 12 Months, Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been Summer 2006

Table 16: We Expect Business Conditions for Our Firm in the Next 12 Months to Be Summer 2006

Table 17: Top 10 Business Challenges, Design & Production Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 18: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, Design & Production Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 19: Top 10 Planned Investments, Design & Production Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 20: In the Last 12 Months, Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been

Table 21: We Expect Business Conditions for Our Firm in the Next 12 Months to Be

Table 22: Top 10 Business Challenges, Publishers by Market, Summer 2006

Table 23: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, Publishers by Market, Summer 2006

Table 24: Top 10 Planned Investments, Publishers by Market, Summer 2006

Table 25: Which of the Following Actions Has Your Company Taken Regarding Implementing an Automated Production Workflow (like Heidelberg Prinect, Agfa Apogee, Creo Prinergy, etc.)? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 26: If Your Company Has Not Implemented an Integrated, Automated Workflow System, Does Your Company Have Any Plans to Implement One in the Next 12 Months? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 27: Has Your Company Implemented or Planned to Implement a Management Information System (MIS)? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 28: Has Your Business Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside of North America in the Past 12 Months? Design & Production Establishments by Market, Winter 2005/2006

Table 29: Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? Design & Production Establishments by Market, Winter 2005/2006

Table 30: Has Your Business Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside of North America in the Past 12 Months? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 31: Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 32; Has Your Business Partnered/Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside North America in the Past 12 Months? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2005

Table 33: If No, Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2005

Table 34: TWGA Estimates of Print Volume to be Sent Overseas in Next 18 Months, All Creative Markets

Table 35: Which Media Channels Do You Use Now, Which Do You See as Becoming More Important in the Next 12 Months, and Which Do You See as Becoming Less Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All P

Table 36: “Broadening Digital Printing Services” as a Sales Opportunity, Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, 2003-2006

Table 37: “Digital Color Variable Printing Jobs” as a Sales Opportunity, All Print and Prepress Establishments, 2000-2006

Table 38: Have You Worked on Personalized, Customized or Variable-Data Jobs in the Past 12 Months? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 39: How Would You Classify Those Jobs? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006

Table 40: What Is the Primary Printing Technology Used to Output These Jobs? Print and Prepress Establishments by Market, Fall 2006