Publishing Forecast 2007

Executive Summary

The Publishing Markets

Economic Background

General Economic Trends

The Publishing Markets Today

The Publishing Landscape

Business Conditions

Challenges, Opportunities, and Investments

Close-Up View of Some Key Industry Trends

Media Mix

Other Media Mix Issues

Media Mix Conclusions

Digital Printing and Variable Data Printing

Online Proo.ng

O.shore Printing

Notes and References

Introduction: The Singularity Is Near

The 2007 Publishing Forecast

The Publishing Markets

How This Report Is Organized

For More Information

Notes and References

Section 1: The Market Today

Economic Background

General Economic Trends

Notable News

Notes and References

Section 2: The Publishing Markets Today

The Publishing Markets

Book Publishers

Magazine Publishers

Catalog Publishers

The Publishing Landscape

Magazine Publishers

Book Publishers

Catalog Publishers

Business Conditions

Business Conditions Index

Current Business Conditions

Expected Business Conditions

Business Challenges

Sales Opportunities

Planned Investments

Investment Projections

Key Publishing Trends

Notes and References

Section 3: Close-up View Of Some Key Industry Trends

Media Mix

Use Now

Becoming More Important

Becoming Less Important

Other Media Mix Issues

Media Mix Conclusions

Digital Printing and Variable Data Printing

Digital and Variable-Data Printing Conclusions

Online Proofing

Offshore Printing

Publishing Forecast 2007

O.shoring Conclusions

Notes and References

Section 4: The Industry Measure Publishing 2007 Forecast

What’s Hot and What’s Not

What’s Hot

What’s Hot-ish

What’s Cold

Six Forces to Be Reckoned With

Cross-/Multichannel Marketing/Publishing and New Media

Brand Extensions

Comailing

Long Tail Economics

Online/Remote Proo.ng

Digital/Variable-Data Printing

E-Books and E-Zines

Forecast By Market

Magazine Publishers

Catalog Publishers

Book Publishers

The Last Word

Notes and References

Appendix: Industry Measure Methodology

The Industry Measure Today

Historic Background

Survey Design

Survey Sampling, Incentives, and Response Rates

Sampling Strategy

Non-Response Bias

Other Background Research

Who’s Who at The Industry Measure

The Industry Measure Report Editorial and Production Sta.

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Estimated Revenue, Periodical Publishers (NAICS 51112), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Figure 2: Estimated Revenue, Periodical Publishers (NAICS 51112), 2005-2006 ($ million)

Figure 3: Annual Combined Paid Circulation per Issue of All ABC Magazines, 1998-2005

Figure 4: Estimated Revenue, Book Publishers (NAICS 51113), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Figure 5: Estimated Revenue, Book Publishers (NAICS 51113), 2005-2006 ($ million)

Figure 6: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index, Publishers by Market, 1997-2006

Figure 7: In The Past 12 Months, Has Your Use of Online Proofing for Final Approval Been 2006

Figure 8: Media that Would Be Missed the Most by U.S. Kids and Teens, by Age, April 2006

Figure 9: Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, in Current Dollars and in Chained 2000 Dollars, 1997-2005

Figure 10: Estimated Revenue, Periodical Publishers (NAICS 51112), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Figure 11: Estimated Revenue, Periodical Publishers (NAICS 51112), 2005-2006 ($ million)

Figure 12: Annual Combined Paid Circulation per Issue of All ABC Magazines, 1998-2005

Figure 13: Estimated Revenue, Book Publishers (NAICS 51113), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Figure 14: Estimated Revenue, Book Publishers (NAICS 51113), 2005-2006 ($ million)

Figure 15: Industry Measure Business Conditions Index, Publishers by Market, 1997-2006

Figure 16: In the Last 12 Months, Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been

Figure 17: We Expect Business Conditions for Our Firm in the Next 12 Months to Be

Figure 18: Industry Measure Business Optimism Index, Publishers by Market, 1997-2006

Figure 19: Top 10 Business Challenges, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 20: Top five Business Challenges Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Publishers, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 21: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 22: Top five Sales Opportunities Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Publishers, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 23: Top 10 Planned Investments, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 24: Top five Planned Investments Year-to-Year Historical Comparison, All Publishers, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 25: Which Media Channels Do You Use Now to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 26: Which Media Channels Do You See as Becoming More Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 27: Which Media Channels Do You See as Becoming Less Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 28: “Improving Our Web Site” and “Driving Traffic to Our Web Site” as Sales Opportunities, All Publishers, 2003-2006

Figure 29: “E-Newsletters” as a Sales Opportunity, All Publishers, 2004-2006

Figure 30: “E-Mail Campaign Design, Development” and “E-Mail Campaign Management, Execution” as Sales Opportunities, All Publishers, 2001-2006

Figure 31: Selected Newer Media Opportunities, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Figure 32: “E-Book Production” as a Sales Opportunity, Book Publishers, 2001-2006

Figure 33: “Non-Print Publications (Like Zinio, NewsStand, etc.)” as a Sales Opportunity, Magazine Publishers, 2004-2006

Figure 34: “Short-Run, Niche Titles Using Print on Demand (like Lightning Source)” and “Keeping Titles in Print Using Print on Demand (like Lightning Source)” as Sales Opportunities, All Publishing Establishments, 2005-2006

Figure 35: “Variable Data Printing Projects” as a Sales Opportunity, All Publishing Establishments, 1999-2006

Figure 36: Have You Worked on Personalized, Customized or Variable-Data Jobs in the Past 12 Months? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 37: Is Your Company’s Use of Personalized, Customized, or Variable-Data Printing… All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 38: If Yes, For Which of the Following Print Products Have You Used Personalized, Customized, Variable Data, or Other Types of Targeted Printing? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 39: How Would You Classify Those Jobs? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 40: What Is the Primary Printing Technology Used to Output Your Personalized, Customized, Variable-Data, or Other Types of Targeted Print Materials? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 41: In The Past 12 Months, Has Your Use of Online Proofing for Final Approval Been Summer 2006

Figure 42: “Color Proofing” as a Business Challenge, All Publishing Establishments, Summer 1997-Summer 2006

Figure 43: Has Your Business Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside of North America in the Past 12 Months? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Figure 44: Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Table of Tables

Table 1: Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, in Current Dollars and in Chained 2000 Dollars, 1997-2005

Table 2: Sources of Revenue, Periodical Publishers (NAICS 51112), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Table 3: Annual Combined Paid Circulation per Issue of All ABC Magazines, 1970-2005

Table 4: Sources of Revenue, Book Publishers (NAICS 51113), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Table 5: Estimated Book Publishing Industry Net Sales 2002-2005 ($1,000)

Table 6: Top 10 Business Challenges, Sales Opportunities, and Planned Investments, All Publishers, Summer 2006

Table 7: Which Media Channels Do You Use Now, Which Do You See as Becoming More Important in the Next 12 Months, and Which Do You See as Becoming Less Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Pu

Table 8: Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, in Current Dollars and in Chained 2000 Dollars, 1997-2005

Table 9: Sources of Revenue, Periodical Publishers (NAICS 51112), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Table 10: Annual Combined Paid Circulation per Issue of All ABC Magazines, 1970-2005

Table 11: Sources of Revenue, Book Publishers (NAICS 51113), 1998-2004 ($ million)

Table 12: Estimated Book Publishing Industry Net Sales 2002-2005 ($1,000)

Table 13: In the Last 12 Months, Business Conditions for Our Firm Have Been

Table 14: We Expect Business Conditions for Our Firm in the Next 12 Months to Be

Table 15: Top 10 Business Challenges, Publishers by Market, Summer 2006

Table 16: Top 10 Sales Opportunities, Publishers by Market, Summer 2006

Table 17: Top 10 Planned Investments, Publishers by Market, Summer 2006

Table 18: Investment Projections for the Next 12 Months, All Publishing Establishments, Summer 2006

Table 19: Which Media Channels Do You Use Now, Which Do You See as Becoming More Important in the Next 12 Months, and Which Do You See as Becoming Less Important in the Next 12 Months to Promote Your Services, Products or Publication(s) to Customers? All Publishers

Table 20: “Short-Run, Niche Titles Using Print on Demand (like Lightning Source)” and “Keeping Titles in Print Using Print on Demand (like Lightning Source)” as Sales Opportunities, Publishing Establishments by Market, 2005-2006

Table 21: “Variable Data Printing Projects” as a Sales Opportunity, Publishing Establishments by Market, 1999-2006

Table 22: Have You Worked on Personalized, Customized or Variable-Data Jobs in the Past 12 Months? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 23: Is Your Company’s Use of Personalized, Customized, or Variable-Data Printing… Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 24: If Yes, For Which of the Following Print Products Have You Used Personalized, Customized, Variable Data, or Other Types of Targeted Printing? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 25: How Would You Classify Those Jobs? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 26: What Is the Primary Printing Technology Used to Output Your Personalized, Customized, Variable-Data, or Other Types of Targeted Print Materials? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 27: In The Past 12 Months, Has Your Use of Online Proofing for Final Approval Been Summer 2006

Table 28: Has Your Business Worked with a Print Service Provider Located Outside of North America in the Past 12 Months? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 29: Does Your Business Have Any Plans to Work with an Overseas Print Service Provider in the Next 12 Months? Publishing Establishments by Market, Summer 2006

Table 30: Industry Measure Estimates of Print Volume to be Sent Overseas in Next 18 Months, All Publishing Markets