Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Intelace Research
Published: January 2006
Product Code: R3432-6Description • The banking system in Serbia has experienced dramatic changes within last few years. In the year
2000 most banks faced problem of low liquidity and bad loans inherited from the previous regime. In
course of restructuring efforts lead by the Central Bank together with Bank Rehabilitation Agency,
during 2001-2002 many banks have been shut down, some have been merged with stronger ones,
and few others have been saved by debt-equity swaps with the State. Since 2003 the overall condition
of banks in Serbia is improving. Depositors confidence has been partially restored and money
circulating outside the sector is finding the way to banks again
• The banking market is still highly fragmented. More than 40 banks are operating in the country. The
majority are small local players with market shares below 1%. A consolidation seems to be
unavoidable. Smaller banks will have either to merge and grow or to specialize in niches
• A privatization process and M&A activity is a big issue at the moment. During the year 2005, ten large
deals have been closed. Further transactions are expected during 2006, including the privatization of
the #5 player: Vojvodjanska banka, drawing attention of a dozen of international banks willing to invest
in the region
• Banking market in Serbia is very promising. Extremely low PFA levels and still relatively low PFLs
create a big upside potential. Serbia households are still holding cash reserves at home - so called
”mattress money” that could be possibly attracted to the banks, provided the confidence in the banking
system will be fully restored
• Unfortunately the overall macroeconomic situation is still difficult. Inflation is out of control and the
Dinar is constantly depreciating. This situation is obviously discouraging the use of local currency by
individuals. As a result banks have problems in asset-liability management as large short term FX
deposits can not be easily converted into the long term lending in local currency.
Table of Contents - 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- Slide 2: The State Union of Serbia and Montenegro
- Slide 3: Serbia and the region - Key figures
- Slide 4: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2001-2006*
- Slide 5: Foreign trade evolution and C/A balance, 2000-2005*
- Slide 6: Inflation and market interest rates, 2000-2005*
- Slide 7: Wages and unemployment, 2001-2005*
- Slide 8: Taxation
- Slide 9: Privatization and FDI flows, 2000-2006*
- 2. Banking market
- 2.1. Banking market - General trends
- Slide 10: Serbia banking system evolution, 2000-2005
- Slide 11: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth - International comparison
- Slide 12: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison
- Slide 13: Serbia banking assets: Nominal values and GDP penetration, 2001-2005*
- Slide 14: Serbia banking assets: Real growth and values in EUR, 2001-2005*
- Slide 15: Serbia banking deposits evolution, 2001-2005*
- Slide 16: Serbia banking loans evolution, 2001-2005*
- Slide 17: Serbia banking market concentration - Top 10, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, 2004
- Slide 18: Serbia top 10 banks ranked by assets, 3Q2005, market shares and ownership
- 2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview
- Slide 19: Regulatory overview: Deposit insurance
- Slide 20: Regulatory overview: Credit information
- Slide 21: Mandatory reserve policy
- Slide 22: Capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loans
- 3. Retail banking
- Slide 23: Personal financial assets (PFA) value and structure, 2004
- Slide 24: Retail deposits structure and evolution, 2000-2005*
- Slide 25: Personal financial liabilities (PFL) value, 2000-2005*,
- Slide 26: Retail loans evolution, split by maturity into: short term and long term, 2000-2005*,
- Slide 27: Top players on the retail market, 2004
- 4. Banks profitability
- Slide 28: Banking spreads evolution, 2001-2005*
- Slide 29: Banking system profitability tree, 2003-2005*: Selected income statements items shown as percent of average assets
- Slide 30: Top 4 large banks comparative profitability tree, 2004 : Selected income statement positions shown as percent of average assets, cost income ratio and return on equity added
- Slide 31: Vojvodjanska banka - profitability tree, 2002-2004: Selected income statements items shown as the percent of average assets,
- cost income ratio and return on equity added
- 5. Top banks profiles
- Slide 32: Bank profiles: Raiffeisen Bank - overview
- Slide 33: Bank profiles: Raiffeisen Bank - financials and other
- Slide 34: Bank profiles: Banca Intesa (Delta Banka) - overview
- Slide 35: Bank profiles: Banca Intesa (Delta Banka) - financials and other
- Slide 36: Bank profiles: Komercijalna banka - overview
- Slide 37: Bank profiles: Komercijalna banka - financials and other
- Slide 38: Bank profiles: Hypo-Alpe-Adria-Bank - overview
- Slide 39: Bank profiles: Hypo-Alpe-Adria-Bank - financials and other
- Slide 40: Bank profiles: Vojvodjanska banka - overview
- Slide 41: Bank profiles: Vojvodjanska banka - financials and other
- 6. Recent banking M&A transactions
- Slide 42: Banking M&A deals in Serbia (1/2)
- Slide 43: Banking M&A deals in Serbia (2/2)
- Slide 44: Open and upcoming bank M&A transactions in Serbia
- * Note: 2006 data is forecasted, 2005 figures are estimated based on real data as of October/November 2005
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