College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009

With a tech-savvy student body demanding an increasing supply of digital materials, publishers must learn to adapt or risk losing their competitive advantage. Although new and used textbooks continue to dominate the higher education instructional materials scene in 2008, their market share is sliding. The rising trend is in multimedia tools—particularly for homework assistance and assessment—and college publishers are finding that the appeal of digital tools is sparking increasing interest in e-textbooks.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 provides insights like these to decision-makers in all facets of the higher education instructional materials industry. In addition, the report offers a complete overview of the size and structure of the market, the latest enrollment statistics, funding, marketing and more.

Specific topics include:

• Market size by segment:
  • college textbooks
  • used college books
  • professional books
  • trade books
  • multimedia materials (coursepacks and e-media sold separate from textbooks)
  • mass market paperbacks
  • religious books
  • university press books
  • K-12 textboooks
• Segment growth drivers
• New textbooks vs. used textbooks
• Top foreign markets for exports of U.S. textbooks
• Market niches, such as community colleges, for-profit post-secondary schools, and distance learning
• Custom publishing, coursepacks and multimedia
• Marketing and distribution of college textbooks and instructional materials
• Growth outlook for higher educational materials publishing through 2011

In addition, College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 offers an inside look into key mergers and acquisitions, as well as Simba’s exclusive College Publisher Index, which provides revenue and market share rankings of leading higher ed instructional materials providers.

We include detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Bedford, Freeman & Worth; Blackboard; Cengage Learning; Jones and Bartlett; McGraw-Hill Education; Oxford University Press; Pearson Education; John Wiley & Sons; W.W. Norton; Barnes & Noble College Bookstores; Follett Corp. and Nebraska Book Co.

College Publishing Market Forecast 2008-2009 is a vital market intelligence tool for publishers, marketers, retailers and distributors, as well as business development and investment professionals charged with developing strategies to succeed in the rapidly growing U.S. higher education materials market.

• Introduction
  
  • Market Opportunities
    
  • Digital Advance
  
  
• New Textbooks Dominate, but Share Slides
  
  • K-12, Religious and Multimedia Materials See Growth
  
  
• Demand for Used Textbooks Continues to Grow
  
• Key Media in the College Classroom
  
• Average Textbook Prices Show Moderate Growth
  
• Eight Publishers Control 93.9% of College Market
  
  • Pearson Tops Simba’s College Publisher Index in 2007
    
  • Jones and Bartlett and W.W. Norton Outpace Industry Growth
    
  • Wiley Leads in Operating Performance with 26.9% Margin in FY2008
    
  • Pearson Is Aggressive in Margin Targets
    
  • McGraw-Hill: Strongest Operating Income Improvement
    
  • Cengage Learning Exceeds Efficiency Goals
  
  
• Pearson Leads the Charge into International Education Sales
  
• Textbook Exports Flatten with 1% Growth in 2007
  
• 2008 Begins with More Export Activity
  
• Cengage Acquisition of HM College Leads M&A Activity
  
  • Private Equity Backer Moves in with Jones & Bartlett
    
  • Macmillan Expands Custom Publishing
    
  • Technology Is Attractive in M&A Market
    
  • Promise of More M&A Activity

  
  

• Table 1.1: Domestic Net Sales in U.S. College Market by Segment, 2006-2008P
  
• Table 1.2: New Textbooks vs. Used Textbooks in the U.S., 2006-2008P
  
• Table 1.3: Breakdown of Key Media Used for Instruction in U.S. College Classrooms
  
• Table 1.4: Share of Media Used in U.S. College Classrooms, 2008P
  
• Table 1.5: Average Textbook Price New vs. Used, Academic Years 2003-2007
  
• Table 1.6: Simba Information’s College Publisher Index, 2006-2008P
  
• Table 1.7: Simba Information’s College Publisher Performance Index, 2007 vs. 2006
  
• Table 1.8: Major Publishers by Non-U.S. Sales, 2007
  
• Table 1.9: Top Foreign Markets for Exports of U.S. Textbooks, 2007 vs. 2006
  
• Table 1.10: Top Foreign Markets for Exports of U.S. Textbooks, Q1 2008 vs. 2007
  
• Table 1.11: Simba’s Higher Education Merger & Acquisition Index, 2007-June 2008
  
• Table 1.12: Courses & Textbooks Cengage Will Divest
  

Chapter 2: Enrollment

• Overview
  
• Enrollment by Age
  
• Enrollment by Gender
  
• Diversity on the Campus
  
• Public vs. Private Enrollment Changes
  
• Full-Time vs. Part-Time Enrollment Changes
  
• A Degree Matters More Now
  
• Where the Students Are
  

  
  

• Table 2.1: Total Enrollment in Higher Education, 1991-2017P
  
• Table 2.2: College Enrollment by Age, 1991-2016P
  
• Table 2.3: Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Gender, 1992-2017P
  
• Table 2.4: U.S. Enrollment Numbers by Race, 1991-2016P
  
• Table 2.5: Higher Education Enrollment, Four-Year Public vs. Private, 1990-2016P
  
• Table 2.6: Total Higher Education Enrollment by Enrollment Status, 1991-2017P
  
• Table 2.7: Degrees Conferred, 1992-2017P
  
• Table 2.8: Enrollment Ranked by State in Two-Year and Four-Year Colleges, Fall 2005
  
• Table 2.9: Public High School Graduates, 2004
  

Chapter 3: Market Niches: Community Colleges, For-Profit Post-Secondary Schools and Distance Learning

• Introduction
  
• Community Colleges
  
• Enrollment Rises
  
• Addressing Basic Skills
  
• Carnegie Learning Offers Remedial Help
  
• Leading Fields of Associate Degrees
  
• Post-Secondary Schools
  
• Traditional Publishers Tap Post-Secondary School Market
  
• Leading For-Profits Gird Against Tighter Loan Market
  
• Simba’s Career College Index Shows Continued Enrollment Growth
  
• 2008 Ushers in Revenue Growth, Variable Operating Performance
  
• Penetration of Distance Learning
  
• Online Enrollment Continues to Grow, but More Slowly
  
• Associate Degree Programs Show Fastest Growth
  
• Room for Growth
  
• Online in Community Colleges
  
• Pearson Forges Online Textbook Agreement in Colorado
  

  
  

• Table 3.1: Community Colleges at a Glance
  
• Table 3.2: States with Enrollment Growth at 2-Year Public Colleges, 2005 vs. 2004
  
• Table 3.3: Projections in 2-Year College Enrollment, 2005-2016P
  
• Table 3.4: Leading Associate Degree Fields, Academic Year 2005-2006
  
• Table 3.5: Enrollment Growth at For-Profit Institutions, 1980-2006
  
• Table 3.6: Simba’s Career College Spring Enrollment Index, 2008 vs. 2007
  
• Table 3.7: Career College Q1 Financials, 2008 vs. 2007
  
• Table 3.8: Online Enrollment Growth, Fall 2002 vs. 2006
  
• Table 3.9: Online Growth by Degree Program, 2002 vs. 2006
  

Chapter 4: Funding

• Overview
  
• Tuition Increases Up for 2007-2008
  
• Aid Comes in Various Forms
  
• Federal Government Addresses Affordability
  
• Credit Crisis Prompts Action
  
• Looking to the Future of Federal Support
  
• States Face Financial Issues, but Continue Higher Ed Support
  
• Looking to the Future of State Support

  
  

• Table 4.1: Average Tuition and Fee Charges
  
• Table 4.2: Higher Education Financial Aid, 1996-1997 to 2006-2007
  
• Table 4.3: Estimated Federal Aid for Post-Secondary Education, 2009
  
• Table 4.4: Federal Higher Education Appropriations, FY2007-2009P
  
• Table 4.5: Appropriations to Higher Education, FY2006-2008
  
• Table 4.6: Educational Revenue per FTE
  

Chapter 5: Textbooks

• Introduction
  
• Format Offerings Vary
  
• Cengage Learning Plans More from 4LTR Press
  
• Going Green and Weighing the Kindle
  
• Large Publishers Behind CourseSmart
  
• Biggest Challenge: Free and Open
  
• Flat World Knowledge Moves into Market
  
• E-book Buzz
  
• Course Staple: Textbooks
  
• Used-Book Sales: Collegiate Fact of Life
  
• Ten Publishers Command 60.5% of New Units Sold
  
• Math Courses Accounted for the Most Textbook Sales in 2007
  
• Most Improved: Religion; Greatest Decline: Agriculture & Forestry
  
• Pearson Is Best-Selling Math Publisher in 2007
  
• Pearson Also Leads in English
  
• Cengage Learning Produces Close Second to Pearson in Psychology
  
• Pearson, McGraw-Hill Lead in Biological Sciences
  
• Pearson Higher Education Captures Education’s Top Spot
  
• Pearson Trumps in History
  
• McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Foreign Languages
  
• McGraw-Hill No. 1 in Accounting; Cengage No. 2
  
• Pearson Leads in Chemistry
  
• McGraw-Hill Titles Claim Management Leadership
  

  
  

• Table 5.1: Growth in College Textbooks Net Sales, 2000-2007
  
• Table 5.2: Book Sales in College Stores
  
• Table 5.3: Average Used Textbook Rate, 2005-2007
  
• Table 5.4: Leading Publishers by New Units, 2007 vs. 2006
  
• Table 5.5: Top 20 Disciplines for Textbook Sales, 2007 vs. 2006
  
• Table 5.6: Unit Sales Patterns, 2007
  
• Table 5.7: Mathematics - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.8: English - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.9: Psychology - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.10: Biological Sciences - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.11: Education - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.12: History - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.13: Foreign Language & Literature - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.14: Accounting - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.15: Chemistry - Leading Publishers, 2007
  
• Table 5.16: Management - Leading Publishers, 2007
  

Chapter 6: Custom Publishing, Coursepacks & Multimedia

• Introduction
  
• Custom Publishing Continues to Grow
  
• Hayden-McNeil Offers Turnkey Custom
  
• Custom Appeals to Bookstores
  
• Wiley Benefits from WileyFlex and WileyPLUS
  
• Custom Solutions Help Drive Pearson Growth
  
• Multimedia Changing Perception of Textbook
  
• Homework Manager Is a Plus for McGraw-Hill
  
• Tighter Digital Focus at Cengage Learning
  
• Social Networking and E-Textbooks
  
• Can the Kindle Spark Interest in E-Textbooks
  

  
  

• Table 6.1: Hayden-McNeil Custom, 2007 vs. 2006
  
• Table 6.2: Multimedia Materials Used in College Classrooms, 2006-2008P
  

Chapter 7: Marketing & Distribution

• Overview
  
• What Students Pay and Why
  
• To Bundle or Not?
  
• Distributors Look to Used Texts
  
• Momentum for Digital Migration
  
• NACS Digital Content Subsidiary Planned
  
• Publishers Offer Common Platform Through CourseSmart
  
• Additional Access Models and Technologies Evolve
  
• College Stores Business Good
  
• Online Purchasing of Texts
  
• Bookstores Broaden Technology Offerings
  
• Potential of Textbook Rental Programs Limited
  

  
  

• Table 7.1: Where the New Textbook Dollar Goes
  
• Table 7.2: Average Product Sales by Segment
  
• Table 7.3: Contract Management of College Stores by Operator
  
• Table 7.4: Course Materials Purchased by Location
  

Chapter 8: Forecast and Conclusions

• Overview
  
• Landscape Pressures
  
• Moderate Growth for Textbooks
  

  
  

• Table 8.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2007-2011P
  

Profiles of Leading U.S. College Publishers & Software Providers

• Bedford, Freeman & Worth
  
• Blackboard
  
• Cengage Learning
  
• Jones and Bartlett
  
• McGraw-Hill Education
  
• Oxford University Press
  
• Pearson Education
  
• John Wiley & Sons
  
• W.W. Norton

Profiles of Leading College Textbook Distributors and Retailers

• Barnes & Noble College Bookstores
  
• Follett Corp.
  
• Nebraska Book Co.