Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: CRISIL Ltd.
Published: September 2007
Product Code: R3543-44Description Continued global uptrend in steel prices has prompted the players in the Indian steel industry to plan huge capacity additions. Though the domestic demand is expected to witness healthy growth, it would not be able to match the capacities planned.
In such a situation, critical questions arise are:
- How would margins move in the next 1-2 years?
- What would happen to the domestic and international steel prices?
- What is the outlook on global demand-supply balance?
- What is the outlook on China’s demand-supply balance?
- How would domestic consumption grow in the next five years?
- What is the quantum of capacity addition in the next five years?
- What are the critical success factors for a cyclical business like steel?
Who will benefit:
- Investment Managers
- Venture Capitalists
- Management Consultants
- Research Companies
- Private Equity Managers
- Market intermediates
- Banks
- Infrastucture industry participants
- Analyst
- Other Industry Professionals
Table of Contents - Part A: Momentary turbulence amidst bright future
- Executive summary
- Margins to soften in 2007-08
- Prices to inch ahead in the long term
- Domestic demand-supply: Flat products
- Domestic demand-supply: Long products
- Bright prospects for the global steel industry
- Input costs to firm up
- Key success factors
- Part B: State of the industry
- Trends in technology
- Pre-liberalisation scenario
- Much desired liberalisation arrives in 1991
- Revival of the steel industry
- 2003-04 and 2004-05 - Years of turnaround
- Review: Post-2004-05
- Player profiles
- Part C: Industry statistics
- Demand
- Supply
- Prices
- Trade and tariffs
- Financial performance
- Global steel industry
- Executive summary
- 1.0 Margins to soften in 2007-08
- - Introduction
- 2.0 Prices to inch ahead in the long term
- - International prices to propel domestic prices
- - Though domestic demand-capacity ratio would worsen…
- - …tight global supply would prop domestic prices
- 3.0 Domestic demand-supply: Flat products
- - Pipe and auto sectors to drive demand for flat products
- - Demand for pipes to witness robust growth over next five years
- - Buoyancy expected in the auto sector
- - Overcapacity — a concern in the short-to-medium term
- - Construction sector to drive domestic demand for GP/GC
- 4.0 Domestic demand-supply: Long products
- - Construction sector to drive demand for long products
- - Sizeable investments foreseen in construction industry
- - Oversupply concerns foreseen in the medium term
- 5.0 Bright prospects for the global steel industry
- - Buoyant demand growth in the next five years
- - China to hold driver’s seat
- - US demand growth — Lacklustre outlook
- - Europe — moderate growth in steel consumption
- - Operating rates to tighten
- - Capacity additions
- - China to turn into net importer again by 2010
- - High and rising operating rates to push up prices
- - A sensitivity analysis of Chinese demand growth
- 6.0 Input costs to firm up
- - Raw material prices to increase further
- - Iron ore market to remain tight up to 2008
- - Coke
- - Coking coal
- - Thermal (steam) coal
- - Scrap
- 7.0 Key success factors
- - Introduction
- - Access to raw materials at low costs
- - Proximity to inputs and market
- - Financial structure
- - Diverse product mix and proportion of value-added products
- - Ability to export
- Figures
- Executive summary
- 01 Outlook on prices, operating costs and OPM
- 2.0 Prices to inch ahead in the long term
- 01 Domestic demand-to-capacity ratio
- 02 Outlook on global demand-supply and operating rates
- 03 Rising global operating rates pushing up international prices
- 04 Domestic prices vis-à-vis landed costs
- 3.0 Domestic demand-supply: Flat products
- 01 Domestic consumption-to-capacity ratio to worsen
- 4.0 Domestic demand-supply: Long products
- 01 Domestic consumption-to-capacity ratio to worsen
- 5.0 Bright prospects for the global steel industry
- 01 Region-wise demand outlook
- 02 Global steel demand-supply outlook
- 03 China - demand-supply outlook
- 04 China to be net importer again by 2010
- 05 Increasing operating rates to push up prices
- 06 Global steel demand-supply outlook - sensitivity on Chinese demand
- 6.0 Input costs to firm up
- 01 Trend in iron ore prices
- 02 Supply-side bottlenecks for mine expansions
- 03 Coke prices would be pushed up by rising coking coal prices
- 04 Thermal coal price trend
- 05 Trend in scrap prices
- Tables
- 1.0 Margins to soften in 2007-08
- 01 Analysis on margins
- 3.0 Domestic demand-supply: Flat products
- 01 HR flats - Segment-wise growth rate forecast from 2006-07 to 2011-12
- 02 CR flats - Segment-wise growth rate forecast from 2006-07 to 2011-12
- 03 GTICL’s proposed pipeline projects
- 04 GAIL’s proposed pipe network
- 05 Other proposals
- 06 Automobile industry growth rates - Past and projected
- 07 Global car sales
- 08 Announced capacity expansions - flat products
- 09 GP/GC sheets - Segment-wise growth rate forecast from 2006-07 to 2011-12
- 4.0 Domestic demand-supply: Long products
- 01 Longs - Segment-wise growth rate forecast from 2006-07 to 2011-12
- 02 Bars and Rods - Segment-wise growth rate forecast from 2006-07 to 2011-12
- 03 Structurals - Segment-wise growth rate forecast from 2006-07 to 2011-12
- 04 Long products - Announced capacity expansions
- 6.0 Input costs to firm up
- 01 Iron ore - Announced capacity additions
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