Mobile Java: Applications, Markets & Technologies

Mobile Java™ has generated much industry and media excitement since the first MIDP (Mobile Information Device Profile) specification was released in 2000. Java™ technology has been widely embraced by the mobile industry as the de facto standard for developing and delivering mass market mobile applications. New mobile Java™ download services open up many fresh business opportunities for network operators, application developers, content owners, content aggregators and handset manufacturers.

This report serves as a timely guide and reality check on the emerging market for new mobile Java™ services at a time when industry expectations are high and new services in Europe and North America are starting to take off. In presenting the findings of this report we have drawn on the experience of mobile industry pioneers including our survey of senior managers such as CEOs, Marketing Directors, CIOs etc. This helped us formulate our unique market sizing and growth model for the sector.

Executive Summary

Introduction

Technology

Compelling Content

The Opportunity

Market Projections

On-line Java™ Survey Findings

Conclusions Summary

Mobile Applications Market Landscape

Introduction

Java™ Currently Has the Strongest Industry Support

The Big Picture

Mobile Industry Trends Paving the Way for Mobile Applications and Java™

Customer Trends

Industry & Technology Trends

The Mobile Handset Mega Trend

The Best Way to Win a Fight is to Get Your Retaliation in First

More Parallels with the PC Industry

Open Standards Accelerate Commoditisation

Mobile Phones - Even More Suspiciously Like PCs on the Inside

Java™ Unites Them All

The Big Question

Market Effects

Moulding the Market into Niches

Race to Discover New Niches - Only the Most Innovative Need Apply

Designer Quality

Haute Couture Phones for Fashion Victims?

The New Breed of Competition

Clones Arise

Attack of The Clones

Operators Flex Their Muscle

Who Else Wants to Roll Their Own Clones?

New Designer Clones - Coming Soon?

Application Opportunities

Niche Applications

Business Ecosystems of Related Service Providers

Vertical Markets

Brand Owners

Games/Entertainment

Business Applications

Clone Customisation

Mobile Java™ Technology

What Exactly is Java™ ?

What Makes Java Different ?

Industry Backing Through The Java™ Community Process

Java 2 Micro Edition (J2ME)

J2ME Receives Widespread Industry Endorsement

Profiles

Mobile Information Device Profile (MIDP)

OTA Support

Improved Security Features

JSR 185 - Java Technology for the Wireless Industry

JSR 185 - Road Map for the Wireless Industry

In the Pipe Line

Business

Other Standards Bodies

Java Challenges

Platform Independence - Portability vs Performance

Speeding Java™ Performance

Benefits of Java™

Client-Server Functionality

Ubiquity

Developer Appeal

Development Tools

Operator Appeal

Content Aggregator/Provider Appeal

Handset Manufacturer Appeal

Customer Appeal

Rival & Alternative Technologies

Business Models

Show Me The Money

Revenue Generating Opportunities

Ecosystem or Symbiosis ?

Network Operator Centric Model

Content Services Provider Centric Model

Vertical Market Model

Manufacturer Centric Model

Summary

Case Studies

i mode®

i-appli

Operator Benefits of Adopting i-mode

i mode - A Prodigious Success Story

Customer Appeal

Content Based Marketing

Content Provider’s Appeal

Business Model - A Benevolent Patriarch

A Simplified Value Chain

Close Co-ordination of Content, Devices and Marketing Effort

Will i-mode Succeed in Europe ?

BREW

The BREW Distribution System

Deployments

Operator Experiences

KT Freetel (KTF)

Verizon Wireless

Implications

BREW Challenges

Conclusions

On-Line Java™ Survey

Results, Analysis and Comment

Survey Objectives and Respondents

Demographics

Greatest Benefit Expected from Selling OTA Applications

Greatest Current Barriers to Selling OTA Applications

Top Revenue Earning Content

Java’s™ Perceived Advantages Over Alternative Technologies

Technology Most Used for Providing OTA Applications

Where Developers Expect to Earn Most Revenue

Where Most Development Activity Will be Concentrated

Types of OTA Applications Being Developed

Developers’ Preferred Sales Channels

Developers’ Preferred Revenue Sharing Options

How Much Revenue to Share with Partners

Content Aggregators’ Biggest Customers

Aggregators’ Content Delivery Services

Aggregators’ Content Format

Revenue Share - Content Aggregators

Handset Manufacturers Strategic OTA Platform

Handset Sales Growth

European Network Operators - Do All The Operators Surveyed Have a Java™ OTA Application

Platform in Place?

European Network Operators- ARPU Expectations

European Network Operators - % of Users Expected to Have a Java™ Phone by 2007

European Network Operators - Maximum Percentage of Revenue an Operator would Share with an

Application Developer

Summary of Key Findings

Mobile Java™ Downloads Revenue Forecasts

Methodology

The Scenario

Business Applications

Global Forecasts

Asia Pacific (APAC)

Technology Migration

APAC Java™ Revenues

Handsets

Europe

Technology migration

European Java™ Revenues

European Java™ Handset Shipments

North America

Technology Migration

NAM Download Java™ Revenues

North American Java™ Handset Shipment Forecasts

Latin America

Latin American Java™ Download Revenues

Latin America Handsets Shipment Forecasts

Rest of World (ROW)

Technology Migration

Rest of World Java™ Download Revenues

Rest of World Java™ Handset Forecasts

Conclusions

Important Lessons

Player Profiles

Mobile Infrastructure Providers

Openwave Systems

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developers Programme

MX Telecom

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developers Programme

Publishers

Tira Wireless

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developers Programme

Network Operators

mmO2

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developers Programme

Handset/Handset Platform Provider

Savaje

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developers Programme

PalmSource

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Developers Programme

AlphaCell Wireless

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Developers Programme

Content Providers

WES (Wireless Entertainment Services Finland Ltd.)

Company Type

Company Overview

Developers

ROK

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Developers Programme

Xpherix

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Developers Programme

Smartner

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Mediation & Billing

Mobileway

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Highdeal

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Others

Motorola

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

Handango

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developers Programme

End2End

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

IN-FUSIO

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

Esmertec

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

Aplix

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

Insignia

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

Sun Microsystems

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

Symbian

Company Type

Company Overview

Java™ Strategy

Progress

Developer Programme

List of Forecasts

All forecasts cover 2004 - 2009 and are split five key regions: North America (NAM), South

America (LAM), Europe, Asia Pacific, ROW except where stated.

Global Forecasts

Global Revenues by Region from Java™ Download Services (m)

Global Shipment Forecast - Total Handsets, Java Handsets (m)

Global Handset Shipment Forecast - Java/Non-Java (%)

Java™ Handset Shipment Forecast (m) by Region

Non-Java™ Handset Shipment Forecast by Region (m)

Asia Pacific Forecasts

Java™ Download Revenues ($m) by Technology - 2G, 2.5G, 3G, Total

Handset Shipments (m) - Non Java/Java/Total

Java™ Handsets by Technology (m) - 2G, 2.5G & 3G

European Forecasts

Java™ Download Revenues ($m) by Technology - 2G, 2.5G & 3G

Handset Shipments (m) - Java/Non-Java/Total

Java™ Handsets by Technology (m) - 2G, 2.5G & 3G

North American Forecasts

Java™ Download Revenues ($m) by Technology - 2G, 2.5G & 3G

Handset Shipments (m) - Java/Non-Java/Total

Java™ Handsets by Technology (m) - 2G, 2.5G, 3G

Latin American Forecasts

Java™ Download Revenues ($m) by Technology - 2G, 2.5G, 3G

Java™ Handset Shipments (m) - Java/Non-Java/Total

Java™ Handsets by Technology - 2G, 2.5G, 3G

Rest of World Forecasts

Java™ Download Revenues ($m) by Technology - 2G, 2.5G, 3G

Java™ Handset Shipments (m) - Java/Non-Java/Total

Java™ Handsets (m) by Technology - 2G, 2.5G, 3G