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Mobile User Generated Content Dating, Social Networking & Personal Content Delivery 2007-2012

Product Type: Market Research Report
Published by: Juniper Research Limited
Published: August 2007
Product Code: R399-199
Description
This detailed report offers a complete analysis of the mobile user generated content market whilst providing vital forecast data on subscriber numbers and revenues until 2012. It segments the UGC market into three main categories including, social networking, dating/chatrooms & personal content delivery. The report also comprises interviews with key players, focused case studies and analysis from representatives of some of the leading organisations involved in this promising sector. Additionally, the report includes forecasts for revenue, ARPU and subscriber numbers for all UGC categories, together with volume of downloads from mobile personal content delivery sites, split by eight key regions together with global totals. Finally, this report includes strategic recommendations for operators, service providers, vendors and regulators.

Key Questions Answered by this Report:
  • Which markets have thus far been most successful for mobile UGC services?
  • Which mobile UGC services are likely to generate the highest revenues?
  • What are the key hurdles to the mass adoption of mobileUGCservices?
  • What business models are mobile UGC players implementing, and how successful are they?
  • Is advertising likely to provide a substantial revenue stream for mobile UGCservices?
  • What strategies should operators, service providers, vendors and regulators implement to facilitate the successful deployment and adoption of mobileUGCservices?
Main Benefits:
  • A unique source of research, analysis and information for the mobile UGC market i n c l u d i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s , market characteristics & forecasts.
  • Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities available to vendors and operators.
  • Unique insights: includes interviews with leading industry players who have significant experience in the mobileUGCmarket.
  • Benefit from fresh thinking and an intelligent market assessment from a respected thought leader.
Table of Contents
Glossary

Executive Summary

Introduction

Types of User Generated Content

The Market for UGC Services

Figure ES1: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC 2007-2012

Table ES1: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC 2007-2012

Regional Outlook for UGC Services

Figure ES2: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for UGC. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table ES2: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for UGC Regional Forecast 2007-2012

The Hurdles to UGC Adoption

Table ES3: The Hurdles for UGC

1. Technology

1.1 Introduction

1.2 2G

1.2.1 Communication Technologies of 2G

i. GSM

ii. TDMA

iii. CDMA

iv. D-AMPS

1.2.2 Data Services

i. SMS

a. The Working of SMS

Figure 1.1: SMS Message Flow

b. Types of Messaging Services

Mobile-originated SMS

Mobile-terminated SMS

c. Premium-rate SMS (PRSMS)

1.3 2.5 & 2.75G

1.3.1 Communication Technologies of 2.5/2.75G

i. GPRS

ii. EDGE

iii. CDMA2000

1.3.2 Data Services

i. MMS

a. How Does MMS Work?

Figure 1.2: MMS Application Services

b. MMS Services

- MMS Entertainment and Information Services

Figure 1.3: Nokia’s 6280 3G Handset Supporting Video Streaming

c. Personalisation

1.3.3 The SMS/MMS Value Chain

Figure 1.4: SMS/MMS Value Chain

1.4 3G

Figure 1.5 3G Access Technologies

Figure 1.6: Growth in 3G Subscriber Base by Technology, 2002 - Q1 2007

Figure 1.7: Percentage of Mobile Users Who Own 3G Devices, December 2006

(Selected Countries)

Figure 1.8: Global 3G Subscriber Base, December 2006

1.4.1 UMTS

Figure 1.9: Evolution of UMTS

i. WCDMA

ii. EV-DO

iii. TD-SCDMA

1.5 Beyond 3G

1.5.1 HSPA

1.5.2 3GLTE

1.5.3 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Revisions A and B

1.5.4 UMB

1.5.5 Mobile WiMAX 802.16e-2005

Figure 1.10: WiMAX Timeline

1.6 Mobile Technologies Compared

Table 1.2: Comparative Chart of Mobile Technologies

1.7 Other Enabling Technologies

1.7.1 Wireless Internet Technologies

i. WAP

a. The Development of WAP

b. The Future of WAP - Where is WAP Heading?

Figure 1.11: Future Path of WAP

ii. The i-mode Alternative

Figure 1.12: NTT DoCoMo, i-mode Subscriber Growth (m) and i-mode Penetration

of Total User Base (%) 2000-Q2 2007

1.7.2 Languages, Platforms and Operating Systems

i. Languages

a. Java

ii. Platforms

a. J2ME

b. BREW

iii. Operating Systems

a. Palm OS

b. Symbian

c. Windows Mobile

1.7.3 Other Relevant Technologies and Standards

i. MP3

Figure 1.13: MP3 Phones: Nokia N91 and Sony Ericsson K800

ii. MP4

iii. MIDI

iv. Bluetooth

2. Cellular Market Growth

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Growth of the Cellular Market

2.2.1 Global Cellular Subscriber Market

Figure 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Table 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Figure 2.2: Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share (%) by Region 2005-2012

Figure 2.3: Cellular Subscribers Penetration (%) by Region 2005-2012

2.2.2 Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base

Table 2.2: Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) Q1 2007

2.2.3 Growth of 3G

Table 2.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Figure 2.4: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth

2.3.1 North America

Figure 2.5: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.4: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.2 South America

Figure 2.6: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.5: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.3 West Europe

Figure 2.7: West Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.6: West Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.4 East Europe

Table 2.7: East Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Figure 2.8: East Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.5 Far East & China

Figure 2.9: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.8: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.6 Indian Sub Continent

Figure 2.11: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.9: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 2.12: Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.10: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.8 Africa & Middle East

Figure 2.13: Africa & Middle East Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.11: Africa & Middle East Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.4 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment

Figure 2.14: Percentage of Operator-billed ARPU Attributable to Mobile

Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.15: Value of Operator-billed ARPU ($) Attributable to Mobile Entertainment

Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.16: Monthly Voice ARPU ($), UK, Germany, Italy and US, 2003-2006

2.5 The Opportunity for User Generated Content

3. The User-Generated Content Market

3.1 What is UGC?

Table 3.1 Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0, Services and Products

3.2 Personal Content Distribution

3.2.1 PCD Service Providers

i. YouTube

ii. SeeMeTV

iii. Look at Me!

iv. Mobango

v. Kyte.tv/Decentral.tv

vi. MyCorner

3.2.2 Adult Amateur Content

3.3 Social Networking

3.3.2 Social Networking Site Providers

i. Cyworld

ii. MySpace

iii. Facebook

iv. Bebo

v. MOKO

vi. Itsmy.com

vii. Dada Mobile

viii. GotZapp

ix. GoWare

x. Mobrio/Virgin Mobile

xi. GREE

3.4 Mobile Dating Services

3.4.1 Mobile Dating: The Japanese Experience

3.4.2 Mobile Dating in Western Markets: The Players

i. Handmade Mobile Dating (Flirtomatic)

ii. 3G Dating Agency

iii. MeetMoi

iv. Moviligo

v. Zogo

vi. Webdate

vii. Match.com

viii. Gaydar

ix. Cherrysource

3.4.3 Mobile Dating in Emerging Markets

4. UGC -Business Models and Strategies

4.1 Business Models

4.1.1 Pay per download

4.1.2 Subscription Services

i. Bundling Content

4.1.3 Advertising

i. Strengths

ii. Weaknesses

iii. Opportunities

iv. Threats

4.2 Operator and Service Provider Strategies for UGC Deployment

4.2.1 Operator Policies

4.2.2 Service Providers: On or Off-Portal

i. Lower Data Charges

Table 4.1: UK Operator Data Prices ($), June 2007

ii. Improvements in the User Interface

Iii. Greater Variety of Compelling Content

5. UGC - Hurdles and Regulation

5.1 Hurdles to Customer Adoption and Retention

5.1.1 The User Interface

i. Difficulty in Discovering Content.

ii. Difficulty In Accessing Content

iii. Difficulty in Navigating Content.

iv. Difficulty in Creating Content

v. Difficulty in Uploading Content

5.1.2 Industry Structure

5.1.3 Network Speed and Capacity

5.1.4 Service Pricing

5.1.5 Cost of Data Services

5.1.6 Handset Capacity and Battery Life

5.1.7 Privacy

5.1.8 Differentiation

5.1.9 Beyond Adoption - Customer Retention

5.2 The Regulation of UGC

5.2.1 Copyright

i. Viacom vs Google/YouTube

ii. MySpace vs Photobucket

5.2.2 Explicit Content

5.2.3 Data Mining

6. UGC Market Forecasts

6.1 Mobile Personal Content Distribution

6.1.1 Mobile Phone Users Who Use PCD Services

Table 6.1: Percentage of Mobile Subscribers Who Use PCD. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.1: Number of Users of PCD Services (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.2: Number of Users of PCD Services (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.2: Average Number of PCD Downloads per Service User Per Month.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.3: Average Number of PCD Downloads per Service User Per Month.

Regional Forecasts 2007-2012

Figure 6.3: Total Volume of PCD Downloads (m) by Mobile Users per Year. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.4: Total Volume of PCD Downloads (m) by Mobile Users Per Year. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

6.1.2 Personal Content Distribution Service ARPU

Table 6.5: Average Price ($) Paid Per PCD Download. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.4: Monthly ARPU ($) for PCD services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.6: Monthly ARPU ($) for PCD services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.1.3 PCD Revenues (End-User Generated)

Figure 6.5: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from PCD Services. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.7: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from PCD Services. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

6.2 Mobile Social Networking

6.2.1 Mobile Phone Users Who Use Social Networking Sites

Table 6.8: Percentage of Mobile Subscribers Who Use Mobile Social Networking

Sites. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.6: Number of Active Users (m) of Social Networking Sites. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.9: Number of Active Users (m) of Social Networking Sites. Regional Forecast

2007-2012

6.2.2 Mobile Social Networking ARPU

Figure 6.7: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Social Networking Sites. Regional Forecast

2007-2012

Table 6.10: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Social Networking Sites. Regional Forecast

2007-2012

6.2.3 Mobile Social Networking Revenues (End User Generated)

Figure 6.8: Total End-user Revenues ($m) from Mobile Social Networking Sites.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.11: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Social

Networking. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.3 Mobile Dating

6.3.1 Mobile Phone Users Who Use Mobile Dating and Chat Services

Table 6.12: Percentage of Mobile Subscribers Who Use Mobile Dating/Chatroom

Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.9: Number of Active Users (m) of Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.13: Number of Active Users (m) of Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.3.2 Mobile Dating ARPU

Table 6.14: Proportion of Mobile Dating/Chatroom Users Who Pay For Services

Figure 6.10: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Dating/Chat Services. Regional Forecast

2007-2012

Table 6.15: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

6.3.3 Mobile Dating Revenues (End User)

Figure 6.11: Total End-user Revenues ($m) from Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.16: Total End-user Revenues ($m) from Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.4 Total UGC Revenues

6.4.1 Mobile UGC Revenues (End-User)

Figure 6.12: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC 2007-2012

Table 6.17: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC 2007-2012

6.4.2 Mobile UGC Revenues (Ad-Supported)

7. Recommendations

7.1 Recommendations for Operators

7.2 Recommendations for Service Providers

7.3 Recommendations for Vendors

7.4 Recommendations for Regulators




List of Forecasts




All forecasts are for 2007-2012 unless stated below.

Regional forecasts cover 8 regions: North America, South America, West Europe, East Europe, Far East & China, Indian Sub Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific, Africa & Middle East

Technology forecasts include 4 splits: 2G, 2,5G, 3G, 3.5/3.9G

Global Forecasts

Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share (%) by Region 2005-2012

Cellular Subscribers Penetration (%) by Region 2005-2012

Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC

Regional Cellular Market Growth

North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

West Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

East Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Africa & Middle East Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services Market Forecasts

Percentage of Mobile Subscribers Who Use Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services. Regional Forecast

Number of Active Users (m) of Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services. Regional Forecast

Proportion of Mobile Dating/Chatroom Users Who Pay For Services

Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services. Regional Forecast

Total End-user Revenues ($) from Mobile Dating/Chatroom Services. Regional Forecast

Mobile Social Networking Market Forecasts

Percentage of Mobile Subscribers Who Use Mobile Social Networking Sites. Regional Forecast

Number of Active Users of Social Networking Sites (m). Regional Forecast

Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Social Networking Sites. Regional Forecast

Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Social Networking. Regional Forecast

Mobile User- Generated Content:

Dating, Social Networking and Personal Content Delivery 2007-2012

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Personal Content Distribution Market Forecasts

Percentage of Mobile Subscribers Who Use PCD. Regional Forecast

Number of Users of PCD Services (m). Regional Forecast

Average Number of PCD Downloads per Service User Per Month. Regional Forecast

Total Volume of PCD Downloads by Mobile Users Per Year (m). Regional Forecast

Average Price ($) Paid Per PCD Download. Regional Forecast

Monthly ARPU ($) for PCD Services. Regional Forecast

Total End-user Generated Revenues from PCD Services ($m). Regional Forecast
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