Mobile TV Opportunities for Streamed & Broadcast Services 2007-2012

• Who are the main players in mobile TV?
• Which broadcast TV standards are likely to predominate in which countries?
• What are the key hurdles to the mass adoption, and successful deployment of mobile TV services?
• How is the mobile TV value chain likely to develop?
• How are the national subscriber bases of streamed and broadcast TV services likely to evolve?
• What subscriber revenues will mobile TV services generate?
• Is advertising likely to provide a substantial revenue stream for mobile TV services?
• What national and international regulatory developments have impacted upon the likely rollout of mobile TV services in the last 12 months?

• A unique source of research, analysis and information for the mobile TV market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
• Practical analysis of emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
• Unique insights: includes interviews with leading industry players who have significant experience in the mobile TV market.
• Benefit from fresh thinking and an intelligent market assessment from a respected thought leader.

Glossary

Executive Summary

Introduction

What Is The Report About?

The Opportunity

Mobile Streamed TV

Mobile Broadcast TV

The Market for Mobile TV Services

Mobile Streamed TV Services

Figure ES1: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed TV

Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table ES1: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed TV

Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Mobile Broadcast TV Services

Figure ES2: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV

Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table ES2: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV

Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

End-User Generated Revenues for Mobile TV Services

Figure ES3: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile TV Services.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table ES3: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile TV Services.

Regional Forecast 2007-2012

The Hurdles to Mobile TV Adoption

Table ES4: The Hurdles for Mobile TV

1. Technology

1.1 Introduction

1.2 2G

1.2.1 Communication Technologies of 2G

i. GSM

ii. TDMA

iii. CDMA

iv. D-AMPS

1.2.2 Data Services

i. SMS

a. The Working of SMS

Figure 1.1: SMS Message Flow

b. Types of Messaging Services

- Mobile-originated SMS

- Mobile-terminated SMS

c. Premium-rate SMS (PRSMS)

1.3 2.5 & 2.75G

1.3.1 Communication Technologies of 2.5/2.75G

i. GPRS

ii. EDGE

iii. CDMA2000

1.3.2 Data Services

i. MMS

a. How Does MMS Work?

Figure 1.2: MMS Application Services

b. MMS Services

- MMS Entertainment and Information Services

Figure 1.3: Nokia’s 6280 3G Handset Supporting Video Streaming

c. Personalisation

1.3.3 The SMS/MMS Value Chain

Figure 1.4: SMS/MMS Value Chain

1.4 3G

Figure 1.5 3G Access Technologies

Figure 1.6: Growth in 3G Subscriber Base by Technology, 2002 - Q1 2007

Figure 1.7: Percentage of Mobile Users Who Own 3G Devices, December 2006

(Selected Countries)

Figure 1.8: Global 3G Subscriber Base, December 2006

1.4.1 UMTS

Figure 1.9: Evolution of UMTS

i. WCDMA

ii. EV-DO

iii. TD-SCDMA

1.5 Beyond 3G

1.5.1 HSPA

1.5.2 3GLTE

1.5.3 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Revisions A and B

1.5.4 UMB

1.5.5 Mobile WiMAX 802.16e-2005

Figure 1.10: WiMAX Timeline

1.6 Mobile Technologies Compared

Table 1.1: Comparative Chart of Mobile Technologies

1.7 Other Enabling Technologies

1.7.1 Wireless Internet Technologies

i. WAP

a. The Development of WAP

b. The Future of WAP - Where is WAP Heading?

Figure 1.11: Future Path of WAP

ii. The i-mode Alternative

Figure 1.12: NTT DoCoMo, i-mode Subscriber Growth (m) and i-mode Penetration of Total User Base (%) 2000-Q2 2007

1.7.2 Languages, Platforms and Operating Systems

i. Languages

a. Java

ii. Platforms

a. J2ME

b. BREW

iii. Operating Systems

a. Palm OS

b. Symbian

c. Windows Mobile

1.7.3 Other Relevant Technologies and Standards

i. MP3

Figure 1.13: MP3 Phones: Nokia N91 and Sony Ericsson K800

ii. MP4

iii. MIDI

iv. Bluetooth

2. Cellular Market Growth

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Growth of the Cellular Market

2.2.1 Global Cellular Subscriber Market

Figure 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Table 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Figure 2.2: Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share by Region (%), 2005-2012

Figure 2.3: Cellular Subscribers Penetration (%) by Region

2.2.2 Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base

Table 2.2: Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) Q1 2007

2.2.3 Growth of 3G

Table 2.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Figure 2.4: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth

2.3.1 North America

Figure 2.5: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.4: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.2 South America

Figure 2.6: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.5: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.3 Western Europe

Figure 2.7: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.6: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.4 Eastern Europe

Figure 2.8: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.7: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.5 Far East & China

Figure 2.9: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

Table 2.8: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.6 Indian Sub Continent

Figure 2.10: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.9: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 2.11: Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.10: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007- 2012

2.3.8 Middle East & Africa

Figure 2.12: Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Table 2.11: Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.4 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment

Figure 2.13: Percentage of Operator-billed ARPU Attributable to Mobile Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.14: Value of Operator-billed ARPU ($) Attributable to Mobile Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.15: Monthly Voice ARPU ($), UK, Germany, Italy and US, 2003-2006

2.5 The Opportunity for Mobile TV Services

3. Mobile Streamed TV Services

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Vendors and Platforms

3.2.1 ROK TV

3.2.2 Vidiator

3.2.3 Rubberduck Media Lab

3.2.4 Thin Multimedia

3.2.5 U-Turn Media

3.2.6 weComm

3.3 Other Service Providers

3.3.1 MobiTV

i. US

ii. Elsewhere

3.3.2 Orange World

i. France

ii. UK

iii. Spain

3.3.3 Sky Anytime Mobile

3.3.4 GoTV

3.4 MBMS: Multicast and Broadcast Streamed Mobile TV

3.4.1 CMB (Cell Multimedia Broadcast)

3.4.2 TDtv

4. Mobile Broadcast TV: Standards and Deployments

4.1 DVB-H

4.1.1 Ratification/Validation

4.1.2 Deployments

i. North America

a. US

ii. Western Europe

a. Italy

- Walk TV

- MediaSet

Figure 4.1: Samsung SGH-P920 Handset

b. Finland

Figure 4.2: Nokia N92 Handset

c. Germany

d. Netherlands

e. Switzerland

f. France

g. Austria

h. Spain

Figure 4.3: Nokia 7710 Handset

i. Portugal

j. Denmark

k. Ireland

l. UK

iii. Eastern Europe

a. Albania

b. Czech Republic

c. Russia

d. Hungary

iv. Far East & China

a. Taiwan

v. Indian Sub Continent

a. India

vi. Rest of Asia Pacific

a. Vietnam

b. Philippines

- myTV

- Dream TV

c. Australia

d. Indonesia

e. Singapore

vii. Middle East & Africa

a. South Africa

4.2 DVB-SH

Figure 4.4: DVB-SH Network

4.2.1 Development

4.2.2 Deployment

4.3 ISDB-T

4.3.1 Deployments

i. Japan

Figure 4.5: W51T Handset

ii. Elsewhere

4.4 DMB

Figure 4.6: S-DMB Network

Figure 4.7: T-DMB Network

4.4.1 S-DMB

i. South Korea

a. TU Media

- Terrestrial Roll Out

- Hurdles

- Launch

- Handsets

- Pricing

ii. Elsewhere

4.4.2 T-DMB

i. South Korea

ii. Elsewhere

a. Germany

b. Indonesia

c. China

4.5 DAB-IP

4.5.1 Deployments

i. UK

Figure 4.8: Lobster 700

ii. Elsewhere

4.6 MediaFLO

Figure 4.9: MediaFLO Client-Server Architecture

4.6.1 Deployments

i. USA

a. Verizon Wireless

Figure 4.10: LG VX990 and Samsung SCH-u620

b. AT&T

ii. Elsewhere

a. UK

b. Taiwan

c. Hong Kong

4.7 CMMB/STiMi

4.7.1 China

5. Mobile Broadcast TV: Silicon Vendors

5.1 Frontier Silicon

5.2 DiBcom

5.3 Philips

5.4 Texas Instruments

5.5 Siano

5.6 SIDSA

5.7 Qualcomm

5.8 Sharp

5.9 Samsung

6. Hurdles to Adoption

6.1 Regulatory Constraints

6.1.1 Broadcast Standards

i. Nokia vs Qualcomm

6.1.2 Regulatory Framework

6.2 Spectrum Availability

6.2.1 VHF Band III, UHF Bands IV/V and L-Band

Table 6.1: Switch-off Dates of Analogue Transmissions in EU Member States

6.2.2 MSS Spectrum

6.3 Network Cost

6.4 Network Coverage

6.5 Industry Structure

6.6 Type of Content

Figure 6.1: “The Long Tail” - UK TV Peak Viewing (m viewers) by Channel, July 2007 (Top 25 channels)

6.7 Content Rights

6.8 Content Security

Figure 6.2: Main Components of Public Key Infrastructure

6.9 Service Pricing

6.9.1 Streamed Mobile TV

6.9.2 Broadcast Mobile TV

6.9.3 The Mobility Premium for Pay TV Subscribers

6.9.4 Advertising

6.10 Handset Pricing

7. Forecasts

7.1 The Market for Mobile Streamed TV Services

7.1.1 Adoption Rate

i. Key Assumptions

Table 7.1: % 2.5G/3G Mobile Users Who Subscribe to Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecasts 2007-2012

ii. Number of Subscribers

Figure 7.1: Number of Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Subscribe to Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 7.2: Number of Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Subscribe to Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.1.2 ARPU

Figure 7.2: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 7.3: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.1.3 Revenues (End-User Generated)

Figure 7.3: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecasts 2007-2012

Table 7.4: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.1.4 Revenue (Advertising)

Figure 7.4: Total AdSpend ($m) on Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecasts 2007-2012

Table 7.5: Total AdSpend ($m) on Mobile Streamed Mobile TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.2 The Market for Broadcast TV Services

7.2.1 Adoption Rate

i. Key Assumptions

ii. North America

Table 7.6: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. North America 2007-2012

Figure 7.5: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). North America 2007- 2012

Table 7.7: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). North America 2007- 2012

iii. South America

Table 7.8: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. South America 2007-2012

Figure 7.6: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). South America 2007- 2012

Table 7.9: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). South America 2007- 2012

iv. Western Europe

Table 7.10: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Western Europe 2007-2012

Figure 7.7: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Western Europe 2007- 2012

Table 7.11: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Western Europe 2007- 2012

v. Eastern Europe

Table 7.12: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Eastern Europe 2007-2012

Figure 7.8: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Eastern Europe 2007- 2012

Table 7.13: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Eastern Europe, 2007- 2012

vi. Far East & China

Table 7.14: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Far East & China, 2007-2012

Figure 7.9: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Far East & China, 2007- 2012

Table 7.15: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Far East & China, 2007-2012

vii. Indian Sub Continent

Table 7.16: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Indian Sub Continent, 2007-2012

Figure 7.10: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Indian Sub Continent, 2007-2012

Table 7.17: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Indian Sub Continent, 2007-2012

viii. Rest of Asia-Pacific

Table 7.18: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Rest of Asia

Pacific, 2007-2012

Figure 7.11: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Rest of Asia Pacific, 2007-2012

Table 7.19: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Indian Sub Continent 2007-2012

ix. Middle East & Africa

Table 7.20: % of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Middle East & Africa 2007-2012

Figure 7.12: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Middle East & Africa 2007-2012

Table 7.21: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Middle East & Africa 2007-2012

x. Global Forecasts

Figure 7.13: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 7.22: Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.2.2 ARPU

i. Key Assumptions

Table 7.23: Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Country Forecast 2007-2012

Table 7.24: Percentage of Subscribers Paying for Mobile Broadcast TV Services

7.2.3 Revenues

i. North America

Figure 7.14: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. North America 2007-2012

Table 7.25: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. North America 2007-2012

ii. South America

Figure 7.15: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. South America 2007-2012

Table 7.26: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. South America 2007-2012

iii. Western Europe

Figure 7.16: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Western Europe 2007-2012

Table 7.27: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Western Europe 2007-2012

iv. Eastern Europe

Figure 7.17: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Eastern Europe 2007-2012

Table 7.28: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Eastern Europe 2007-2012

v. Far East & China

Figure 7.18: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Far East & China 2007-2012

Table 7.29: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Far East & China 2007-2012

vi. Indian Sub Continent

Figure 7.19: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Indian Sub Continent 2007-2012

Table 7.30: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Indian Sub Continent 2007-2012

vii. Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 7.20: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Rest of Asia Pacific 2007-2012

Table 7.31: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV

Services. Rest of Asia Pacific 2007-2012

viii. Middle East & Africa

Figure 7.21: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Middle East & Africa 2007-2012

Table 7.32: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Middle East & Africa 2007-2012

ix. Global Forecasts

Figure 7.22: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 7.33: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.2.4 Revenue (Advertising)

Figure 7.23: Total AdSpend ($m) on Broadcast Mobile TV Services. Regional

Forecast 2007-2012

Table 7.34: Total AdSpend ($m) on Broadcast Mobile TV Services. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

7.3 Streamed vs Broadcast Services

Figure 7.24: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed and Broadcast TV Services 2007-2012

Table 7.35: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed and Broadcast TV Services 2007-2012

8. Recommendations

8.1 Recommendations for Operators

8.2 Recommendations for Broadcasters/Service Providers

8.3 Recommendations for Vendors

8.4 Recommendations for Regulators

9. Industry Associations

9.1 ITU

9.2 WorldDMBForum

9.3 Digital Video Broadcasting Project (DVB)

9.4 FLO Forum

9.5 European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)

9.6 Open Mobile Alliance

9.7 Wireless World Research Forum

9.8 Mobile IT Forum

9.9 3GPP/3GPP2

9.9.1 3GPP

9.9.2 3GPP2

9.10 Broadcast Mobile Convergence Forum (bmcoforum)

9.11 DigiTAG

9.12 Mobile DTV Alliance

List of Forecasts

All forecasts are for 2007-2012 except where stated below.

Regional forecasts cover 8 regions: North America, South America, West Europe, East Europe, Far East & China, Indian Sub Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific, Africa & Middle East

Mobile TV Subscribers

% 2.5G/3G Mobile Users Who Subscribe to Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecasts

Number of Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Subscribe to Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. North America

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). North America

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. South America

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). South America

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Western Europe

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Western Europe

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Eastern Europe

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Eastern Europe

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Far East & China

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Far East & China

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Indian Sub Continent

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Indian Sub Continent

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Rest of Asia Pacific

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Indian Sub Continent

% of 3G Users Subscribing to Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Middle East & Africa

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Middle East & Africa

Number of Mobile Broadcast TV Subscribers (m). Regional Forecast

Mobile TV Revenues

Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed TV Services. Regional Forecast

Total AdSpend ($m) on Mobile Streamed Mobile TV Services. Regional Forecast

Monthly ARPU ($) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Country Forecast

Percentage of Subscribers Paying for Mobile Broadcast TV Services

Total AdSpend ($m) on Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Regional Forecast

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. North America

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. South America

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Western Europe

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Eastern Europe

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Far East & China

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Indian Sub Continent

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Rest of Asia Pacific

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Middle East & Africa

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Broadcast TV Services. Regional Forecast

Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed and Broadcast TV Services

Cellular Market Growth

Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) Q1 2007

Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology

Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology